ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 011953
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 20 20160801
194330 1914N 08106W 4098 07444 0433 -165 -362 185003 004 018 000 00
194400 1913N 08104W 4098 07445 0434 -165 -348 177003 004 016 000 00
194430 1913N 08101W 4099 07442 0433 -165 -350 167003 003 016 000 00
194500 1912N 08058W 4099 07441 0432 -165 -364 167003 004 016 000 00
194530 1911N 08055W 4098 07443 0431 -165 -363 160003 004 016 000 00
194600 1911N 08053W 4099 07442 0432 -165 -373 155004 004 016 001 00
194630 1910N 08050W 4098 07443 0432 -165 -384 154004 004 016 000 00
194700 1910N 08047W 4099 07440 0432 -164 -394 153003 003 017 001 00
194730 1909N 08044W 4098 07451 0441 -162 -400 146004 004 016 000 00
194800 1908N 08042W 4099 07457 0447 -162 -397 131004 005 018 000 00
194830 1908N 08039W 4098 07461 0450 -160 -389 132006 006 018 000 00
194900 1907N 08036W 4098 07462 0451 -160 -386 134006 007 016 001 00
194930 1907N 08033W 4099 07462 0452 -160 -371 136007 007 017 001 00
195000 1906N 08031W 4099 07462 0453 -160 -341 141007 008 016 000 00
195030 1905N 08028W 4099 07464 0453 -160 -348 143007 007 016 000 00
195100 1905N 08025W 4099 07464 0453 -160 -357 142006 006 016 000 00
195130 1904N 08022W 4099 07462 0453 -160 -330 142006 006 016 000 00
195200 1903N 08020W 4098 07465 0453 -160 -309 146005 006 017 000 00
195230 1903N 08017W 4098 07464 0453 -159 -334 150005 006 014 001 00
195300 1902N 08014W 4098 07466 0453 -160 -342 142006 006 015 000 00
$$

[tolakram]

source for above is http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Click on Invest 97 then click on View model data products for this storm.

[mobilebay]

There won't be an upgrade happening at 5.

Yea i just got that tweet from them. Apparently they are nit convinced

[sunnyday]

How close to Miami will this "storm" be as it passes to its south?
Thank you...

[Aric Dunn]

There won't be an upgrade happening at 5.

REcon should arrive right around 5 get one pass to see if its closed they probably already have the package waiting for confirmation

[Steve]

There won't be an upgrade happening at 5.

Yea i just got that tweet from them. Apparently they are nit convinced

On their website they note that RECON will be in the area shortly thereafter. Specifically, "NHC is not planning to start advisories on the Caribbean wave at 5 pm EDT. An aircraft is expected to be in the area shortly after 5 pm."

[tolakram]

im beginning to think its been a TD or sloppy TS all along the past 24 hrs. my personal experience in watching these hurricanes and storms develop over the past 11 years i dont recall many times a storm has been labeled as an invest so long.

Oh it's happened before and in this same area. It's difficult for storms to form an LLC in the eastern Carribean and I remember a few years watching invests that would blow up and look fantastic but be completely devoid of an LLC.

[JaxGator]

There won't be an upgrade happening at 5.

Yea i just got that tweet from them. Apparently they are nit convinced

Because Recon isn't going to be in there by then. It should arrive in the next hour.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

If I'm not mistaken, and that's a big IF, LLC may be just west of the MLC.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/760188613879398400

[mobilebay]

30 frame live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

If I'm not mistaken, and that's a big IF, LLC may be just west of the MLC.

I dont know. Ive looked at the visible loop so many times im dizzy

[BZSTORM]

thanks Chris and Cycloneye, I knew this site was out there just couldn't find it with comp crash and new computer and for us in Belize this is feeling a bit early to be happening. And its working fine on my computer I use chrome

[Bad_Hurricane]

Time of last reported ob: 19:53Z on Aug. 1, 2016
Direction of Travel: Toward the ESE (110°)
Location: 76 statute miles (123 km) to the ESE (103°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 012003
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 21 20160801
195330 1902N 08012W 4099 07460 0451 -156 -307 132005 006 015 000 00
195400 1901N 08009W 4098 07460 0449 -155 -304 126004 005 013 001 00
195430 1900N 08006W 4099 07450 0443 -159 -309 108004 004 013 001 00
195500 1900N 08003W 4098 07445 0435 -160 -333 082003 004 013 000 00
195530 1859N 08001W 4099 07442 0432 -160 -356 073004 004 014 000 00
195600 1859N 07958W 4098 07443 0431 -160 -369 082004 005 015 000 00
195630 1858N 07955W 4099 07440 0430 -160 -376 069003 004 014 000 00
195700 1857N 07952W 4099 07440 0430 -160 -379 066003 003 013 001 00
195730 1857N 07950W 4098 07442 0430 -163 -384 088004 004 014 000 00
195800 1856N 07947W 4100 07439 0430 -161 -389 085003 004 014 000 00
195830 1855N 07944W 4099 07440 0430 -160 -390 065003 004 014 000 00
195900 1855N 07942W 4098 07442 0431 -162 -385 073004 005 015 000 00
195930 1854N 07939W 4099 07442 0431 -162 -388 079005 005 014 000 00
200000 1854N 07936W 4098 07444 0431 -165 -394 090007 007 015 000 00
200030 1853N 07933W 4100 07439 0431 -163 -398 093007 007 015 000 00
200100 1852N 07931W 4099 07439 0430 -160 -398 088006 007 015 000 00
200130 1852N 07931W 4099 07439 0429 -160 -394 079004 006 015 001 00
200200 1851N 07925W 4098 07439 0429 -160 -388 070004 004 017 000 00
200230 1850N 07922W 4101 07437 0429 -160 -381 082004 004 015 000 00
200300 1850N 07920W 4097 07443 0430 -160 -376 089007 007 016 000 00
$$

[ronjon]

i know its the NAM but 12z run shows a weakening 500 mb ridge over Tx at 72 hours and brings possible "earl" to the NW tip of the Yuc on a NW heading at the end of its run.

[Bad_Hurricane]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 20:02Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 20:00Z on Monday
Coordinates: 18.9N 79.6W
Location: 119 statute miles (191 km) to the ESE (103°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters (22,999 feet)
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -17°C (1°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -40°C (-40°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,630 geopotential meters (25,033 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 15 knots (~ 17.3 mph)

[Hammy]

30 frame live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

If I'm not mistaken, and that's a big IF, LLC may be just west of the MLC.

I dont know. Ive looked at the visible loop so many times im dizzy

Seems to be developing inflow but at the moment is still a sharp wave axis and not closed, so we'll have to wait for tomorrow for an upgrade if low cloud motion is any indicator--apparently I was looking at the mid-level clouds earlier when thinking it was closed.

S/SSE winds and NE motion, nothing from west.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 012013
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 22 20160801
200330 1849N 07917W 4100 07438 0430 -160 -369 093007 008 017 000 00
200400 1849N 07914W 4098 07442 0430 -157 -356 091006 007 016 001 00
200430 1848N 07912W 4099 07439 0430 -155 -348 086006 006 017 000 00
200500 1847N 07909W 4099 07440 0430 -155 -340 085006 006 016 000 00
200530 1847N 07906W 4098 07442 0430 -155 -332 084006 007 018 001 00
200600 1846N 07903W 4098 07445 0431 -155 -325 092007 008 018 001 00
200630 1845N 07901W 4102 07435 0431 -155 -320 090007 008 021 000 00
200700 1845N 07858W 4099 07443 0432 -155 -312 090007 008 020 001 00
200730 1844N 07855W 4094 07451 0433 -155 -303 090008 008 021 001 00
200800 1844N 07853W 4100 07442 0433 -151 -298 088007 008 021 001 00
200830 1843N 07850W 4106 07431 0432 -150 -302 081006 006 020 001 00
200900 1842N 07847W 4098 07445 0433 -150 -323 084008 008 021 000 00
200930 1842N 07845W 4099 07444 0433 -150 -362 081009 009 020 000 00
201000 1841N 07842W 4097 07449 0433 -153 -387 082009 009 020 000 00
201030 1840N 07839W 4098 07444 0433 -153 -386 087011 012 020 001 00
201100 1840N 07837W 4095 07451 0435 -155 -372 088013 013 021 000 00
201130 1839N 07834W 4101 07440 0433 -155 -365 090012 012 021 001 00
201200 1839N 07831W 4099 07443 0433 -155 -360 092012 013 023 000 00
201230 1838N 07829W 4099 07441 0432 -155 -353 080011 012 024 000 00
201300 1837N 07826W 4098 07444 0432 -155 -353 080011 011 023 000 00

[hurrtracker79]

30 frame live loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

If I'm not mistaken, and that's a big IF, LLC may be just west of the MLC.

I dont know. Ive looked at the visible loop so many times im dizzy

Seems to be developing inflow but at the moment is still a sharp wave axis and not closed, so we'll have to wait for tomorrow for an upgrade if low cloud motion is any indicator--apparently I was looking at the mid-level clouds earlier when thinking it was closed.

S/SSE winds and NE motion, nothing from west.

Nothing that you can see. It's possible there are very light west winds. Lets just see what recon tells us soon.

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance:





12z GEFS Ensembles: