ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Well based on the 8PM Position, the 12Z HRWF nailed the position for right now, too bad the 18z seemed to go off the old data, either way I assume that means less time over Hispaniola.

[AlphaToOmega]

Am I crazy to say that PTC 06L will be TS Fred next morning?

[Category5Kaiju]

Am I crazy to say that PTC 06L will be TS Fred next morning?

No, you're not. That's what my expectation is as well, as well as many wx enthusiasts and mets.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well based on the 8PM Position, the 12Z HRWF nailed the position for right now, too bad the 18z seemed to go off the old data, either way I assume that means less time over Hispaniola.

Hopefully that is the only thing it nails.

[gatorcane]

A lot of convection really went poof the last couple of hours, wow

[Stormybajan]

A lot of convection really went poof the last couple of hours, wow

https://i.postimg.cc/zfc8kyBM/goes16-ir-06-L-202108102145.gif

big oof maybe it just needs some time to refresh overnight like it did yesterday, im still confident in this forming a well defined closed circulation by tomorrow evening

[AxaltaRacing24]

I feel that Fred needed that pulse down for a more defined LLC in the longer term.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like dry air got it pretty good for a bit there but convection is returning already. We'll see if it sustains

[Kingarabian]

A lot of convection really went poof the last couple of hours, wow

https://i.postimg.cc/zfc8kyBM/goes16-ir-06-L-202108102145.gif

That's because Storm2k was down for a couple of hours

[toad strangler]

Cheese Grater run inbound!

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425252464908021760

[Woofde]

Definitely pulsed down, but it looks like it's pulsing back up again. It will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[AtlanticWind]

The winds were up to 40 mph , keep thinking this has to close off soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This next pass recon makes will be telling. There was quite a wind shift when they flew by the center people are seeing on radar. This pass is more N to S so they should find out if it is closed.

[tolakram]

It was the map, looks like the API we used is finally been turned off. Replaced it with the NHC 5 day for now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If that center just off the coast of PR is the center, it is bookin' to the west...no north component at all.

[aspen]

Cheese Grater run inbound!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425252464908021760?s=20

It’s not like there’s much of a structure to run through the Cheese Grater to begin with. Since the centers are misaligned and potentially with competing vortices, we’ll have to watch to see if one of them takes over just north of DR like Isaias, or if everything gets ripped to shreds.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[toad strangler]

Cheese Grater run inbound!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425252464908021760?s=20

It’s not like there’s much of a structure to run through the Cheese Grater to begin with. Since the centers are misaligned and potentially with competing vortices, we’ll have to watch to see if one of them takes over just north of DR like Isaias, or if everything gets ripped to shreds.

I've always been a big proponent to the idea that weaker systems have much less to lose over the GA's than a well stacked mature cyclone.

[Craters]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/cYFHzlj.gif

Is it me or is that weak little LLC heading SW?

[alienstorm]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/cYFHzlj.gif

Is it me or is that weak little LLC heading SW?

Could be that is being pulled to the MLC