Texas Winter 2024-2025

[CaptinCrunch]

I as well others have been preaching "transition" all month. It can't go from warmer than avg to colder than avg with out the step down transition from one state to another.

My GF family lives in upstate NY in the Fulton area, and they have had the most snow pre Christmas in 7 years. This morning it was 3 degrees and snowing. They have had two 12"+ snowfalls already and a few multi day stretches of temps below 20 for highs.

When you live in a area of the country where that was the normal growing up, and now it seems like the occasional event, it says a lot for what this winter may have for several areas of the country. Look at Colorado, they had the most November snow in 10 years. Cycles come and go, and unfortunately Texas has been in poop show for several years. I don't count 2021, as that was a singular event and the 20/21 winter still averaged above normal for the season.

So how long will the shift last? This is extremely hard to forecast, but I think Winter will touch Jan, Feb, and early March. I miss the late 70s winters, the 83 and 89 type cold spells, and we are way over due for one of those winters.

Climate change is a thing, and the type of winter we use to have are much harder to get, but it can happen. We are also now moving towards solar minimal over the next 9 years, and that is another piece of the larger picture of seasonal patterns.

January looks colder than average, let's get through that and hope February can follow suit...

Merry Christmas

[Cpv17]

Wonder where orangeblood is?

[Ntxw]

The models are showing anywhere from 1040HP-1050HP+ around the Beaufort Sea. Dec 2022 and Feb 2021 had some major big highs up there pumping cold down, think Feb 2021 holds the record near 1060.

[Stratton23]

Yeah even a 1040-1050 HP in the beaford sea could really unload some serious cold into the US, im kinda getting december 2022 vibes from the look of the pattern on the ensembles, though the signal for an active storm track is definitely there as well

[Ntxw]

Yeah even a 1040-1050 HP in the beaford sea could really unload some serious cold into the US, im kinda getting december 2022 vibes from the look of the pattern on the ensembles, though the signal for an active storm track is definitely there as well

Greenland blocking will be better than December 2022 I think.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah it definitely looks better this time around, even though operational models dont mean anything 2 weeks out, at least from time to time on the GFS, it shows the overall potential of what the pattern could deliver

[Brent]

EPS still very clear signal around New Years Eve and January 1st it begins

[TropicalTundra]

Wonder where orangeblood is?

Probably stacking firewood. If he’s buying in, I’m buying in

[Cpv17]

Surprisingly, I really don’t see much talk about it on social media or anything. I would expect the models to start losing the cold in the coming days as we get towards the medium range and then slowly bring it back, but never to the extent that it originally showed in the long range. Usually how these things work.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 just wait, once we get one of those really wonky cold model runs, i bet it will be talked more about lol, especially after a SSWE occured several days ago i would definitely expect models to show some really insane runs in the coming days, gonna be fun to watch how this evolves, and hopefully we can get a couple of storm systems thrown in the mix as well

[Brent]

Surprisingly, I really don’t see much talk about it on social media or anything. I would expect the models to start losing the cold in the coming days as we get towards the medium range and then slowly bring it back, but never to the extent that it originally showed in the long range. Usually how these things work.

I think we'll see talk ramp up after Christmas. Right now it's just still fantasy land plus it's the lead up to the holiday

I was actually surprised James Spann is already talking about it he usually hates anything in fantasy land. He didn't even rule out there could be precip. That's pretty crazy for him tbh

Looks like about half the EPS members have some snow here around the 3rd/4th of January

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 just wait, once we get one of those really wonky cold model runs, i bet it will be talked more about lol, especially after a SSWE occured several days ago i would definitely expect models to show some really insane runs in the coming days, gonna be fun to watch how this evolves, and hopefully we can get a couple of storm systems thrown in the mix as well

This is one of those cases where you kind of check the boxes and go with what you know. MJO will be favorable, the teleconnections looks favorable, and importantly the Arctic will be cold in the immediate future so there is reliable source.

Now we wait and see if the delivery pattern will be directed at us or where, that's where the models are less reliable at range.

[Stratton23]

And as i spoke, their is a wonky 18z GFS run lol

[Ntxw]

It's also not often you see most of the continent cold from an ensemble standpoint. So I'd hedge bets there is going to be a very cold stretch for the country in the near future.

[Brent]

It's also not often you see most of the continent cold from an ensemble standpoint. So I'd hedge bets there is going to be a very cold stretch for the country in the near future.

https://i.imgur.com/AHEwJFk.png

Yeah I don't think there's any question something is coming it's just a matter of what

Which 10 days out nobody knows

[Stratton23]

GFS casually dropping 1-2 feet of snow in central and north texas hahaha

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 18z is showing the exact type of pattern i expected for this year. La nina, but throws lows right down the Rockies and into Big bend. Also, we all get in on the action!

This type of storm is near perfect for Texas. Lots of energy and a strong low, with a decently strong high above, so the strong low can pull that cold air into it. Means mostly snow and not ice.

[Tireman4]

It's also not often you see most of the continent cold from an ensemble standpoint. So I'd hedge bets there is going to be a very cold stretch for the country in the near future.

https://i.imgur.com/AHEwJFk.png

So, as one of our long range forecasters, you are saying there is a chance for cold air?

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS is even colder, and even more active

[Ntxw]

It's also not often you see most of the continent cold from an ensemble standpoint. So I'd hedge bets there is going to be a very cold stretch for the country in the near future.

https://i.imgur.com/AHEwJFk.png

So, as one of our long range forecasters, you are saying there is a chance for cold air?

Much more optimistic than late November for December. The ceiling will be quite high and the fact we are in neutral-weak Nina with Nino high latitude tendencies I think many will be happy with the end result. You couldn't ask for a better deck of cards to draw from.