NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Travorum]

So far 97kts FL winds and 970.8mb extrap, supports 85 and almost 90kts.

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica Radar Loop

[zzzh]

750mb FL 97kt. This supports 85kt

[Hurricane2022]

970.9 extrap.

[WaveBreaking]

972mb 970.8/20kt in the eye and a peak FL wind of 97kt in the NW eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

972mb/20kt in the eye and a peak FL wind of 97kt in the NW eyewall.

At least 85 kt so far.

[aspen]

I’d go with 90kt/972mb. I think we may have a major by 11pm at this rate

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Agree with 90 knots, potentially 95 knots pending what next few passes show

[Hurricane2022]

Jamaica Radar Loop
https://i.postimg.cc/4NfCxt5H/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-recent-1.gif

The eye seems to be contracting considerably. What a historic and catastrophic weekend for Jamaica.

[Teban54]

So far 97kts FL winds and 970.8mb extrap, supports 85/90kts.

The last recon flights that ended at 13z were measuring 983-985 mb. This is a minimum pressure drop of 1.2 mb/hr (maybe more depending on interpretation). Even though far from extreme, it's still impressive considering Melissa seemingly ingesting some dry air in the afternoon, and that the previous recon was still finding an open eyewall intermittently.

[WaveBreaking]

It looks like Melissa is now trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

If the eye can wrap around those cloud tops, look out.

[KirbyDude25]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

Did you mean to type "now"? Regardless, it actually took a bit for me to spot the VHT semicircle because the entire CDO is so cold. Definitely taking off now (though we'll have to wait until the next pass to see just how fast)

[WaveBreaking]

It looks like Melissa is not trying to fire an entire semicircle of new VHTs in the W eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/lmPb0bf.gif

Did you mean to type "now"? Regardless, it actually took a bit for me to spot the VHT semicircle because the entire CDO is so cold. Definitely taking off now (though we'll have to wait until the next pass to see just how fast)

Yeah I meant to type now. Autocorrect got me.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1982221620241396041

[ljmac75]

Don't forget right now the NOAA plane is flying around the 750 mbar level, not 700 so the reduction to surface is gonna be around .85 or so. Max wind they got was 97 kt so 80-85 kt surface.

[GCANE]

There does seem to be a moat on radar.
Watching this if it persists and waiting to see what recon reports.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well, just looked at Twitter/X and saw that the legendary Josh Morgerman has made his decision to chase Melissa in Jamaica. Looks like things are about to get real!

With the airport in the harbor, he's going to need a boat to get home.

[Blown Away]

I’m concerned about Jamaica man!