Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Thanks, Purdue. It is a great place to live, though I think most of us wish we got more snow! Still, when it does snow here, it is so beautiful with all the trees and the mountains covered with snow, as opposed to areas that are all flat.

A Pineapple express would be terrible for our ski areas and our water supply, considering our snow pack is already so low.

In the longer term, do you see us getting colder in a few weeks, or might we be done with the cold air for the season? I know often after a pineapple express we do get colder a week or two later, unless it is a late winter/early spring pineapple express.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks Purdue!!

We just moved here from San Diego (orginally from MN) a couple years ago and love it. I agree with Brian that I wish we would get more snow in the lowlands... but the mountains are so close. From our house we can be skiing in the mountains in 20 minutes.

I pray that we do not get a true Pinneapple Express. We need snow in the mountains desperately.

[PurdueWx80]

Thanks, Purdue. It is a great place to live, though I think most of us wish we got more snow! Still, when it does snow here, it is so beautiful with all the trees and the mountains covered with snow, as opposed to areas that are all flat.

A Pineapple express would be terrible for our ski areas and our water supply, considering our snow pack is already so low.

In the longer term, do you see us getting colder in a few weeks, or might we be done with the cold air for the season? I know often after a pineapple express we do get colder a week or two later, unless it is a late winter/early spring pineapple express.

Hey Brian...not really sure any set forecast can be made that far out. It would have to be a good 2-4 weeks from now before anything like that happened, if it does. February looks pretty cold in the East, and that typically means warmer in the west unless some massive cold high takes over the whole country.

I wouldn't mind living in Bellingham either. My boyfriend went to school at Western and last time we were in WA, we visited some of his friends up there. Did some whale watching, climbed in the Cascades near Mt. Baker and took a trip over to the Hoh rainforest too (not really that close to you but it deserved a mention since that place is so cool!). I love having the urban and extreme RURAL so close to one another. Absolutely beautiful!

[TT-SEA]

Looking back... this whole event was a huge disappointment for most of Western Washington. I tried to reel everyone in from the start but it was crazy at the beginning. Here is what we were looking at last week (this was a post from another board posted here by R-Dub)...


I've never seen this approaching pattern before. Thursday on is shaping to be the coldest arctic outbreak since December of 1990. Just to start, 1000-500 mb thicknesses are at 492 by Sunday, January 9. For people who don't understand, this situation would bring afternoon high temperatures in the teens across all of Western Washington...probably about 5 degrees in Bellingham. 1000-500 mb thicknesses in British Columbia are almost unbelievably cold...it shows a green patch right over southern BC...thicknesses about 470. Add a strong cold front and approaching surface low to the mix, and Western Washington may see a major snowstorm starting Thursday through Monday. And I'm talking MAJOR accumulations. I won't put out specific details/predictions just yet because this pattern is still premature, but just be prepared. I've been looking at forecast models for almost three years and have never seen this sort of pattern and amount of arctic air. And I'm fairly confident about this. Everyone knows I'm very conservative when it comes to arctic air and lowland snow. I didn't even jump on this marginal arctic event this weekend because it just didn't look like a classic scenario. Models have been advertising this pattern for about four days...both Brennan and Snow_Wizzard have been talking about it, but I promised myself I wouldn't say anything until it was within a five-day reach. Now that it's five days away, I'm thoroughly convinced. Keep the faith alive...this could go down in the record books.

[andycottle]

Weather Outlook: Looking at todays GFS, Canadian GEM, and NOGAPS models...today through at least Saturday should remain dry thanks to High pressure and Northly flow aloft to help dry the airmass. 500MB heights through this time are 546 to 552DM and 850MB temps -3 to -6C. By this weekend, 850MB temps warm up to the postitive side and are 0 to +3C...then up near +6C after the weekend. Should see some increase in clouds toward mid-morning saturday, and mabybe enough clouds to call it a partly cloudy day. Sunday may also end up being a partly cloudy day, at least through the first half, with rain reaching the sound sound by Sunday evening and then rain reaching central/ North sound areas later on Sunday night. Monday through next Sunday is looking rainy with oncoming systems just about every day...with some days being pretty wet.

MOS at KPAE(Everett) for Friday has a high 31/ low 24, and Saturday a high 35/low 23. Snow wise...MOS also showing a 52% chance on Saturday and a 41% on Sunday.

And for Renton area acording to MOS...this is how the temps are looking.
Friday: 33/ 23
Saturday: 38/ 20 | chance of snow...47%
Sunday: 42/ 29 | chance of snow...33%

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The models were VERY wrong last week.

Saturday (1/8) and Sunday (1/9) featured highs in the 40's for the Seattle area. A little snow Sunday morning... gone by afternoon.

[R-Dub]

Auctually TT, Anthony wrote that, and he is conservative. Everyone was convinced it would happen, even NWS! All the ingredience were there according to the models. They can't be trusted this year period!

Don't forget not to lump all of western WA in with Seattle TT! I had snow on the ground for a week, and still have a little after this mornings snowfall. My temps were in the low to mid 30's for highs for about 6 days in a row. Lynden has had the worst winter since 1996! 10' drifts, and not above freezing for almost 2 weeks.

[R-Dub]

1/13/05 LK Goodwin WA
11:21:39 AM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 34.9
Humidity (%) 70.0
Wind (mph) NNE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.36
Dew Point: 27.6 ºF
Snow Depth: Trace

[TT-SEA]

Lynden does not have 10' drifts anymore... and they were below freezing for about 5 days not two weeks.

It was 42 degrees in Bellingham yesterday morning and 40+ degrees in Lynden.

You had 1 or 2 inches of snow on the ground and temperatures around freezing. I would say that is a far cry from what was predicted.

Just think its good to look back and see what the predictions were compared to reality. Keeps us humble and honest!!

[TT-SEA]

Live picture just a few miles from Lynden...

http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/border/I5_SR543.htm

[R-Dub]

TT go over to the yahoo fourm, and look at my photos, I posted a couple of pics from Lynden this week. Tell me that isn't extreme! Also the webcam you posted is NEAR Lynden, where my friend is, there is still a lot of snow on the gound, and his current temp is 27 degrees.

I never said that they still have 10' drifts! Where did you get that from anyway? He is looking at possible low teen's or upper single digits tonight!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Although this was not the January 1950 event a lot of us were hoping for, here in Whatcom County it was a pretty good event, though not a record event. The snow drifts were the worst since the 1996 holiday event. That year snow started almost a week before Christmas in Whatcom County and it lasted a couple of weeks, and was about 3-4 feet deep in places (not counting the snow drifts, just actual snowfall).

We have had snow for a week now, it is comparable to the snow we had the first week of January in 2004, though then we had a bit more snow and it was colder. Normally I would say a pretty good snow, but compared to what we thought it could be, I was disappointed.

[R-Dub]

Yes this is a great place to live PurdueWX! If you are going to move out here though in the future, be sure to save your pennys! Housing and property prices have gone pretty much insane here in Western WA over the last 8-10 yrs!

Been here all my life, and over the last 5 yrs expecally the population has exploded, at least in North Snohomish County where I live, driving the prices sky hi!!

1/13/05 LK Goodwin WA
1:09:35 PM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 34.5
Humidity (%) 64.7
Wind (mph) N 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.35
Dew Point: 26.6 ºF

[andycottle]

Wow R-Dub...that is a lot of snow. Lots indeed! Nice pics too. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Although Whatcom County got hit pretty hard last weekend... I must look at the other Western Washington counties to determine a significant winter event. Whatcom County has a very unique microclimate and they frequently see winter weather when no one else does.

Take Whatcom County out... and this was an epic failure of forecasting.

[R-Dub]

I don't disagree that for most of us, this was a big let down, but being western WA, i'll take what I can get!!! If there is white flakes falling from the sky, that is huge for us.

[AnthonyC]

LOL! That post that TT-SEA highlighted was what i wrote almost two weeks ago. It's amazing how inaccurate models have been this entire winter. I have an interesting point to make, although this doesn't agree with models. A surface low currently tracking north a few hundred miles off the Oregon/Washington coast is continuing to strengthen and shift north. This could produce an extreme high wind event for the cascade foothills...winds in excess of 60 mph. But there's something interesting with this latest mountain-wave event. Eastern Washington is inundated with arctic air...my sister called from Spokane this morning and said it was 5 degrees!!! With a strong surface high in Eastern Washington and Idaho, and a strong surface low off the coast, expect a strong easterly gradient. But what if that easterly wind funneled some of that arctic air through the Cascade gaps?! Anyone remember November of 2001? We were in a similar situation when a surface low tracked off the coast and brought dry, cold easterly flow to the central sound. Combine that with moisture and we got snow. Could this happen again?! Just an interesting note...but no models are showing this current pattern. Another interesting note is the possible pineapple express for next week. If latest long-range GFS models are correct, a severe pineapple express will affect the region in the middle of next week. This is definitely not good for the mountains and for our local rivers. We are just finally starting to build our snowpack and it could all be ruined within two days. We'll have to keep checking on this.

Anthony

Currently 35 F with dewpoint of 29 F.

[R-Dub]

You know I thought that system looked like it was stronger, and tracking further north then forecasted.
A similar situation also happened back in Dec 1992. Very cold air funnled from E washington and we ended up with several inches of snow. I remember is so well because I had to take my drivers test for my licence on that day! The forecasters were suprised by it.

[TT-SEA]

Its 28 degrees in Spokane right now.

Its even 25 degrees at Stampede Pass.

The arctic air did not real get into Eastern Washington. Mostly modified arctic air. The Spokane NWS discussion mentioned the fact that it was much warmer than originally predicted.

My opinion... that scenario is not possible. But I have been wrong before!!

[R-Dub]

Arctic front just now moving across E washington, Mansfield its 15 degrees, and 19 at Ephrata. Its currently crossing Moses lake now.