Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

The discussion doesn't even mention the reasoning as to why the initial position hasn't been altered.

[HURAKAN]

If the current forecast verifies, we may not even have a long weekend!

[Thunder44]

The discussion doesn't even mention the reasoning as to why the initial position hasn't been altered.

I think they already realize the center is probably further east. But it's difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center is now under CDO. They are waiting to recon to give them more info before they make changes to their forecast.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2007 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 16:27:05 N Lon : 72:26:43 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -30.3C Cloud Region Temp : -41.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

If I have ever seen a tropical storm, then this is a tropical storm.

[Cyclone1]

Michelle + Dennis = Noel. I like that.

[WmE]

The appearence is reminiscent of Ernesto last year.

[destruction92]

Wow! What a great year it has been for the Southeast in terms of dodging tropical trouble. From Louisiana and the Carolinas, things are looking good. Florida has not even the slightest reason to worry. Pro-mets like Wxman57 and Derek Ortt are confidently and conclusively stating that TD 16 will be well east of Florida and the Bahamas due to relocation of the center well east and the fact that since the slower TD 16 travels, as it has, the more time the approaching cold front will have to steer it away from the U.S. What a great day for Floridians IMO.

[Nimbus]

The inflow wrapping in toward the center is real obvious now. We may have a TS when recon gets there.

There is no good place for this to go with Jamaica to the west and Cuba and Haiti north of it.

[destruction92]

I think its safe to say that Florida is officially in the clear according to our pro-mets on the board.
Good work Derek and Wxman57!

[destruction92]

The inflow wrapping in toward the center is real obvious now. We may have a TS when recon gets there.

There is no good place for this to go with Jamaica to the west and Cuba and Haiti north of it.

One things for sure the way things are looking now, the U.S. mainland will be spared BIG TIME! Maybe even the bahamas if things keep up.

[Cyclone1]

I would like everyone to remember what this storm looked like this morining... and compare that to how it looks now.

It seems "rapid" to me...

[Cyclone1]

Don't let your guard down.

It's too early to call Florida safe just yet, though it's looking that way.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think its safe to say that Florida is officially in the clear according to our pro-mets on the board.
Good work Derek and Wxman57!

Florida's in the clear when the storm is above the greater antilles and to our east.

[tolakram]

Finally some recon!

[HURAKAN]

The appearence is reminiscent of Ernesto last year.

[Cyclone1]

Wow... this is extremely impressive. If this isn't named at 2 then I will spend the rest of the day talking like a little school girl.

[cycloneye]

Still no obs.Plane was supposed to depart at 11:30 AM EDT.

[WmE]

Wow... this is extremely impressive. If this isn't named at 2 then I will spend the rest of the day talking like a little school girl.

LOL. Well, They will probably wait for the recon observations until they upgrade it.