ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

It's really hard to tell how is the EWRC process going until the next microwave pass come out.
Irma has been refusing to do an EWRC since it became a CAT5. It currently looks as good as it gets on satellite imagery.
Maybe there isn't an EWRC anymore. We just have to wait to find out.

[CryHavoc]

Irma is maintaining an impressive structure while passing Hispaniola. I really thought that sequence was going to be more disruptive.

I can't wait to see the research that comes out about this storm regarding her ability to stay at Cat 5 status regardless of what she goes through. Even EWRC and some dry air seems to only raise her pressure by ~5mb or so and barely touch the sustained winds whereas most of the time you see full category fluctuations in intensity.

[NDG]

Irma is maintaining an impressive structure while passing Hispaniola. I really thought that sequence was going to be more disruptive.

When a circulation is stacked so high mountains are not that bad of deal to hurricanes like Irma.

[Category6]

Not that Irma ever looked bad, but she looks really, really good the last few frames.

[Category6]

Irma still a little north of forecast track.

That motion right there at this point COULD have significant impacts on track down the road- it is one reason I don't think the NHC will shift their track west hardly at all despite a model or two shifting west. This could counteract those models in my opinion.

she was definitely a hair north of the last couple forecast points but seems to be wobbling more west again now

[Frank P]

Well .. starting with the 00z UKMET and winding up with the 12z Euro, today has been nothing but solid blows to my gut! Anyone else wanna take a shot? What's next? Oh .. that's right; waiting until the 5:00pm NHC.

Up the spine? No bueno!

Jose?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905878769403121664



Eric Blake ✔ @EricBlake12
Try Alligator Alley then N on 75 to get out of S Florida this afternoon- the Turnpike is a mess all the way north to 75(!) #Irma
3:41 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[Weatherboy1]

Well, shutters are done, supplies are topped off, and we're ready here in Jupiter. Decided traffic, lack of gas, etc. not worth it since we are away from the ocean, intracoastal, etc. and are in newer CBS home. Hope everyone else is all set and ready as well seeing as models are pretty much locked in on a path over South FL or just offshore

[Tuffy]

It's been hard for me to see what might cause the slight west turn into Cuba that the Euro and UK seem to want. I think that western tendency is why they have been effective on storms already moving west (like this one so far). I believe that the GFS and HWRF tend to overdo the turn, though. When NHC sees/doesn't the turn factors in either direction, that is when they tend to disregard those biases. They did not see the N turn factors east of FL yesterday and took the GFS lightly. Similarly, they do not see the small west turn into Cuba (and will see the N misses on the forecasts) and won't move west much, if any, on the track.

The bias in each model is usually associated with something that it doesn't do well. That might be storms in a certain direction, track persistency, or track change. NHC doesn't just measure the error; they take these specifics into account. The Euro tracks better into the Carib and, sometimes, the Bahamas, but gives way to the GFS on turns. This is primarily because the GFS is designed to capture continental factors. You find the troughs and ridges on GFS; so do the storms when they approach CONUS. IMO

[bhj867]

My best friend left Miami yesterday, and has made it into Alabama. Adios Florida. I feel sorry for everyone who can't leave. Let's hope this is not a disaster of unparalleled proportions.

[KWT]

Yeah its wobbling back west a little, probably stair-stepping to the WNW and so your going to get little motions more to the north/west as it goes.

NHC track has been exceptional with Irma thus far it has to be said, probably one of the best jobs I've seen the NHC do.

With that being said, the little wobbles will make a big difference to the Bahamas and later on down the line to how far inland Irma ends up in Florida as well. Still time for the small shift east required to keep the worst of it offshore, though that window will be closing soon enough.

[tolakram]

Loops. Fortunately we won't see a cat 5 heading up this way very often.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=22&lon=-70&width=1000&height=800&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=7882&y=6350&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Taylormae]

Thank you for the responses. I should have phrased some of my question a bit different. I fully understand models change quickly and not to bet on any 'change' as soon as it happens. If there's anything I've learned from lurking around here for nearly 2 years now I know as soon as one model changes one way the opposite happens to another!

Should have said "what impacts MAY we feel if it were to pan out" and not "will feel".

I think all of us up here are on the edge of ours seats so to speak - as I'm sure everyone near and far is!

The anxiety of never having faced a hurricane with children often gets me.

Thank you again! I truly appreciate every bit of input every one has to offer!

What experience does anyone have with a category 4 or 5 hurricane moving just offshore or just inland? Wilma is really the last time something this big hit and it was not as strong. Parts of Florida were a disaster for months. Matthew last year was not as organized and further offshore. I guess what I'm asking is, what answer are you looking for here?

I asked in my original comment. If you don't have the answer there's no need to be snippy.
Sorry I asked.

I'll go back to lurking. Sorry for commenting. Won't do it again.

[Dave C]

Yeah its wobbling back west a little, probably stair-stepping to the WNW and so your going to get little motions more to the north/west as it goes.

NHC track has been exceptional with Irma thus far it has to be said, probably one of the best jobs I've seen the NHC do.

With that being said, the little wobbles will make a big difference to the Bahamas and later on down the line to how far inland Irma ends up in Florida as well. Still time for the small shift east required to keep the worst of it offshore, though that window will be closing soon enough.

Definitely stairstepping, problem is any shift north, even a little, rakes the Bahamas even worse, poor Cat island getting NAILED right now

[Exalt]

Is Irma restrengthening? I hate to say this, but the eye and CDO are getting that symmetrical shape back. Also, storms and convection are reintensifying around the eyewall..

*Edit: There's also a lot of lightning firing in the eyewall. And look how the eye goes from ragged to normal again in the 100 frame.

[im g]http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/saves/animations/CODNEXLAB-GOES16-Visible-20:02Z-20170907_4330-4430-1-100.gif[/img]

[sicktght311]

When can we expect more recon data?

[Sanibel]

The word I got that I-75 was a "parking lot" was false and a relative just reported to me that they flew up 75 no problem to Tampa...I apologize for the previous false report...


Taking pots and planters into garage now...

[tropicwatch]

She is looking pretty constant in her movement right now.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905883130296401923



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905883985892528129

[bob rulz]

It's getting that buzzsaw look on visible, presentation is as good as it's been since east of the Leewards. It doesn't look as good on IR though. Hard to guess what it's really doing without the direct observations. Is there a plane in there now?