ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jasons2k]

[jeff]

That is not the eye..a shadow from overshooting tops of convective burst in the setting sun.

[artist]

That is not the eye..a shadow from overshooting tops of convective burst in the setting sun.

thanks jeff.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

There was about an hour between the last Air force center fix and the most recent NOAA center fix. In that hour the center moved 1.26 miles due west

[jeff]

Dolly looks very well organized this evening....likely well on its way to being a cat 2. Winds wil catch up to the pressure overnight. Luckily a landfall just north of KBRO may save a worse case surge event for the lower Rio Grande and SPI.

[dixiebreeze]

Dolly's still a growing girl:

22/2345 UTC 24.9N 95.8W T4.5/4.5 DOLLY -- Atlantic Ocean

[jrod]

You can know clearly see the eye on the doppler. The line of horizontal winds relative to the radar is exactly where the eye is, if it follows the line it will be a direct hit for Brownsville.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=bro&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[KWT]

Yep exactly Jeff, the pressure we are getting are now getting close to 980mbs, probably would suggest a high end cat-1, so I think its only a matter of time before recon finds much higher winds.

dixiebreeze, yep still strengthening.

[jasons2k]

The plots here are from the LAST Advisory:

[Cape Verde]

You can know clearly see the eye on the doppler. The line of horizontal winds relative to the radar is exactly where the eye is, if it follows the line it will be a direct hit for Brownsville.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=bro&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=no

And an even worse hit for S. Padre Island.

[wxman57]

That's a shadow of the higher cloud tops to the west. The eye is about 30nm west of there.

[jasons2k]

Doppler:

[alan1961]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

That's a shadow of the higher cloud tops to the west. The eye is about 30nm west of there.

that might not have been...

but this is ..

[johngaltfla]

What in the world did I just see on Abrams and Bettis? Dr. Lyons was talking about the very worst case scenario of a Cat 4/5 hitting Houston and the oil fields and then Stephanie Abrams asked him if that could happen tomorrow. He stuttered a moment and then said "It's not out of the realm of the possible." Was he considering that this storm could pull MUCH further north? Or was I just totally missing something on this TWC piece? Anyone else see it?


Why would he say that? He may know something we dont or who knows.

He was referring to it as a generality. He has been a long time lonely voice warning about the vulnerability of our energy supply to major hurricanes.

It was not in reference to this storm.

Back to Dolly and she's looking pretty good but will run out of ocean soon. 982 mb is a nice drop from the earlier reports. It looks like we could be on the brink of another, ugh, active GOM season.

[CrazyC83]

Doppler:

Seems to be an area of winds ~70 kt in the radar scan there - what would that be at the surface?

[burasgal01]

Is it true what I heard on our local station the Dolly may be slowing down and could go in as far north as corpus. They said something about a trough coming down and causing a weakness that may affect her steering. Noone here is saying anything like this. I know she is organizing/intensifiying, but a cat 3. Does she have time to get that high? Hard to believe our local mets. Had Katrina not coming to us for days.

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
VERY VERY good radar presentation starting to emerge.

[ronjon]

I wonder how many homes will be left on S. Padre Island after Dolly? Looks like ground zero for the impact here.

http://www.texmaps.com/aerials/14southern-laguna-madre/slides/422697632a.html

[Bane]

I wonder how many homes will be left on S. Padre Island after Dolly? Looks like ground zero for the impact here.

http://www.texmaps.com/aerials/14southern-laguna-madre/slides/422697632a.html

if she stays a cat 1, probably all of them.