ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6841 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:13 pm

Image

Nice little surge in forward speed in last few frames...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6842 Postby Cargill » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:14 pm

Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

We've been to Princess Cay on the very southern tip of Eleuthera - so a bit south and rather east of Nassau. Other cruise companies have places in that general region too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6843 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:14 pm

Image

current motion of Dorian is roughly the red line. Dorian is not following the NHC track at the moment
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6844 Postby KC7NEC » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:15 pm

nascarfan999 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

Info on Disney's private cay...story is all are accounted for but they were not evacuated...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weathe ... 27417.html


Disney also stated that the island was suth of the storm and only would have TS winds.... but based on location, radar, and the path it HAD to go through the eye. The highest spot on the entire island is 23' and thats not where any of the structures are. I am afraid Disney is spending the night with Lawyers, and PR knowing the sentenced thier staff to death.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6845 Postby Nederlander » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:16 pm

Vdogg wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

Image


That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.

The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.


This has been stated multiple times but isn’t really true. The next forecast point is north of Grand Bahama and east of Freeport. Can it still make that? Yes, but it will need to commence a heading of ~290 now. That will only get steeper the more it stays on its current heading.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6846 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:16 pm

No signs of cloudtop warming

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6847 Postby Joe Snow » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:17 pm

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Current RADAR for KAMX
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6848 Postby jfk08c » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:17 pm

It seems to me like every model has this getting to the end of Grand Bahama at 8pm tomorrow. They eyewall will probably completely be on shore in the next few hours. I really don't see this storm taking that long to cross the island, especially because it looks like it might actually be raining speed. A little concerning I must say
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6849 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:19 pm

Freeport is about the same distance from the eyewall now as the forecast track is from the Florida east coast barrier islands. They are getting 38 knots sustained with 48 knot gusts.
I don't know what the slosh model does with this storm for surge though.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6850 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:19 pm

S FL local Mets sure of Dorian being picked up and taken N avoiding FL.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6851 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:20 pm

Wow, look at the surge in forward speed all of the sudden...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6852 Postby jdray » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:20 pm

It's interesting when you are under a Tropical Storm watch until further notice.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6853 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:20 pm

NDG wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???


On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.

https://i.imgur.com/yHyEPzG.gif


So we are talking probably close to 100 million dollars or more in damage just for those 3 cays and who knows how many deaths there. This storm will be retired for sure we will be looking at billions of dollars of damage just in the Bahama's and who knows how many deaths.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6854 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:21 pm

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6855 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:23 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.


What? Not supposed to turn for 18-24 hours yet
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6856 Postby drewschmaltz » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:23 pm

1. I have a house in hope town abaco. Initial reports are not good.

2. The N/S jogs don't matter too much IMO. The forecast track looks like an "L" Moving an L up or down doesn't change its westernly most component. Shifting it left and right does. So, I'm watching this foward speed like a hawk. (well, as it relates to Florida)

3. Don't those clouds point NE? The "he goes where he points" exercise has been fun. Is he still pointing?

4. Abaco again. Damn. Terrible.
Last edited by drewschmaltz on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6857 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:24 pm

I don't think that was really a jump in speed the eye didn't seem to move any faster just the outer wall of Dorian, unless someone has a better graphic to show it all.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6858 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:24 pm

I am thoroughly in awe of how Dorian has been able to sustain such power. I can’t imagine the damage we will see at daylight tomorrow in the Bahamas. The lack of eyewall replacement cycles is rare and I’d love to know how Dorian has been able to avoid them. At this point, you have to wonder if another bout of intensification is possible before a stall occurs. Normally, I would say no way, but Dorian is different. Just amazing.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6859 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:24 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.


WESH guys in Orlando are definitely wobbling on their confidence as well
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#6860 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:25 pm

toad strangler wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.


What? Not supposed to turn for 18-24 hours yet

Should have some N component though, look at the NHC graphic I posted a few posts up.
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