ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.

Might go up to 155 at 11 at this rate. Don't think they'll up it before the main advisory.

They’re doing hourly updates. So if recon finds cat 5 winds they’ll upgrade at 10pm est

[CrazyC83]

Based on radar velocities and those obs, I would have it at 135 kt right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.

That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.

[WeatherEmperor]

Isnt 135KT supposed to translate to 155MPH? So anything above 135KT would be Cat5 right?


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[shiny-pebble]

Pressure is dropping, we just need to see winds increase just a bit

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[KWT]

935-936mb this pass. 133kt SFMR.

Pretty presistant reporting at 133kts now, thats the 3rd. Strengthening case to round up the 130kts to 135kts based on this, but they may go to 155mph instead though to reflect the clear data showing its above 150mph.

Got to think the NE quadrant will show a 135kts+ when the AF flight comes through soon.

[FLpanhandle91]

133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.

That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.

That 133 knot reading was in the NW eyewall.

[Texashawk]

So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

Because for every Laura there are a few others storms where people are convinced it will turn left, or rapidly intensify, or go annular or whatever and it doesn't pan out. The NHC is extremely careful to never "fear monger" unless it is truly warranted, because it's been shown time and again that people will latch onto those missed calls and won't evac next time.

They're ultimately pretty accurate over there, especially with track, but it does look like they refuse to predict RI, which normally is pretty unpredictable. Granted, we seem to be in a time period where any storm with an eye RI's, so the bulls in the room may be right more than the NHC in that regard.

Fair answer.

So what about the Storm Prediction Center? They go out on a limb quite a bit - they are responsible for predicting tornado outbreaks and hail/wind events, among other things. I’ve never heard anybody smash the SPC when a HIGH risk tornado or thunderstorm event fails to happen. So what’s the difference? Again, asking respectfully, but this dichotomy has intrigued me for a while.

[chaser1]

Sheriff is saying 100-150 people staying in Cameron Parrish overnight. Very sad situation

"Dead Man Walking"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.

That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.

That 133 knot reading was in the NW eyewall.

Woops, must've been reading the map upside down

[Ken711]

Still tracking NNW.

8:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.7°N 93.1°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[cfisher]

It'll take a lot more than 20kts of shear to knock over 200 mph winds in the mid-level. There's just too much built up inertia

[EquusStorm]

NHC has to stay conservative and not over-warn, they did mention in the discussions there was a possibility the intensity could be conservative but I'm not surprised they didn't go higher than C3 until it was well on its way. Obviously in hindsight they could have forecast 135kt and verified, but back then with Houston in the cone it probably would have generated quite a bit of panic

[Highteeld]

Should get a big dropsonde from the SE side

[ColdMiser123]

Isnt 135KT supposed to translate to 155MPH? So anything above 135KT would be Cat5 right?


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SFMR of 137 KT would support Cat 5.

[Beef Stew]

One would think with 133 in the NW we'd see 135+ in the NE on the upcoming pass. Time will tell.

[cfisher]

Is anyone else noticing a trend of cyclones consistently outperforming forecasts, I wonder why that might be?

[tolakram]

So I want to ask a serious question. Practically everyone on the board and many of the models showed this happening or something similar. Virtually every RI indicator was flashing green, and it was widely accepted that Laura had a golden runway to landfall. So why didn’t the NHC grab hold of this trend until literally this afternoon? They actually ended up doing a great job with the track, which I felt was by far the most difficult part of the forecast, but they seriously undersold the potential intensity (remember when it was barely going to make landfall as a minimal hurricane?) I’m really not trying to knock the NHC, but I would be curious as to why they were so very conservative on Laura.

Every storm has the golden runway at some point, and they have over done intensity on numerous storms. Try to be objective here, Laura is just a single storm.

[HurricaneEdouard]

133 knot SFMR but on the southeast side of the eyewall.

That NE eyewall is going to be a doozy next pass, I'd guess.

That 133 knot reading was in the NW eyewall.

Indeed. On this pass, peak SFMR reading was NW eyewall, peak FL winds were SE eyewall. The Air Force pass NE-to-SW is what I'm really waiting for.

[shah83]

We really need to be concerned about the petrochemical complexes around Lake Charles. Remember Dorian causing that huge oil spill? Or Harvey and explosions in Port Arthur? I am also wondering what facilities there are the only source for resources and manufactures in the US.