ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[tailgater]

Just from watching these slower moving systems over the years, they can be a little stubborn( hesitate) moving inland. But it does look to be moving more westward again.
Is ULL over the big Bend area progged to move out?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[jeff]

SPI is going to get rocked pretty good...poorly constructed and mobile omes may have some serious issues...most well build homes and hotels will likely only have cosmetic damages to the roofs, windows...some homes may fail completely however as I saw after Claudette in 03

[burasgal01]

Hope she hurries up get there and goes away. I know they need the rain, but this is more than just rain showers. Even with a Cat 1/2. She is getting herself together.

[jeff]

Just from watching these slower moving systems over the years, they can be a little stubborn( hesitate) moving inland. But it does look to be moving more westward again.
Is ULL over the big Bend area progged to move out?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

It is progged to move westward..but then again look at what the TUTT south of Dolly did...it was forecast the weaken days ago.

[Wx_Warrior]

Dude, this is not Rita, Katrina...

[Bane]

SPI is going to get rocked pretty good...poorly constructed and mobile omes may have some serious issues...most well build homes and hotels will likely only have cosmetic damages to the roofs, windows...some homes may fail completely however as I saw after Claudette in 03

how strong do you think this is going to get? also, are homes on SPI really that poorly constructed. we have had several cat 1 storms here and we rarely see structural damage from them.

[A1A]

What is the weather feature in interior Texas that appears to be sucking all the moisture out of the air?

[JonathanBelles]

[wx247]

Cameron County, TX residents are being urged to leave their homes near the levees. They are afraid that they will not hold...

http://www.newschannel5.tv/2008/7/22/99 ... ed-to-Move

[MiamiensisWx]

SPI is going to get rocked pretty good...poorly constructed and mobile omes may have some serious issues...most well build homes and hotels will likely only have cosmetic damages to the roofs, windows...some homes may fail completely however as I saw after Claudette in 03

how strong do you think this is going to get? also, are homes on SPI really that poorly constructed. we have had several cat 1 storms here and we rarely see structural damage from them.

There is a difference between "experiencing the effects of a Cat 1" (i.e. a few TS gusts on the fringes) and "experiencing sustained hurricane force winds." True Cat 1 winds can be quite damaging to poorly constructed residences such as older mobile homes.

Jeff's post is very accurate, in my view.

[wxman57]

http://img362.imageshack.us/img362/3901/hurdollyxz9.jpg

That's a shadow of the higher cloud tops to the west. The eye is about 30nm west of there.

that might not have been...

but this is ..

I'm not sure what you're referring to on the image above. That circular spot in the dry air region isn't an eye. The eye is close to the white tops on the heavier convection to the southwest of that little circular area.

[stevetampa33614]

When is landfall expected too occur? At this point im worried about further strengthening, not track.

Edit although I have a feeling this may be the most she is gonna do.

[ronjon]

SPI is going to get rocked pretty good...poorly constructed and mobile omes may have some serious issues...most well build homes and hotels will likely only have cosmetic damages to the roofs, windows...some homes may fail completely however as I saw after Claudette in 03

how strong do you think this is going to get? also, are homes on SPI really that poorly constructed. we have had several cat 1 storms here and we rarely see structural damage from them.

Assuming the storm comes injust south of SPI, wouldn't we expect about 6 ft of surge also? I'm assuming most beach homes are on stilts or are elevated, but anything at ground level would seem to be hit pretty hard.

[wxman57]

I'm marking the center at 25.1N/95.9W at 8:52pm CDT. 1hr movement 291 degrees at 7.5 kts. Heading to BRO now 304 degrees. Distance to the coast 85nm. At an average speed of 7 kts (assuming more slowing) I estimate 12 hours to landfall. Around 9am CDT.

[Cape Verde]

Cameron County, TX residents are being urged to leave their homes near the levees. They are afraid that they will not hold...

http://www.newschannel5.tv/2008/7/22/99 ... ed-to-Move

Why should they hold? They were built with kickbacks to local politicians by their friends at the taxpayer money. This kind of scam has been going on in South Texas for 60 years or more.

Under the Texas state constitution, counties have more powers than the state. If you gain control of a county, it's your fiefdom. Long history of that, and Cameron County is a current example. The local voters could change that, but they're both intimidated and bribed.

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

the eye.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Is it just me, or does it appear that convection is slightly waning tonight. No doubt that it will increase during the d-max though.

[Mattie]

I work for a major oil entity and no - our oil supply or gulf resources are not in jeopardy during a hurricane - the RIGS are - but not the drilling for resources. Our rigs would have to be rebuilt - but the oil is safe - there was no oil or gas lost by US platforms/rigs during hurricane Katrina - and there won't be from this one. All wells are tight and fitted with safety valves to prevent any such spillage. The slowdown comes with people and structures that are affected.

What in the world did I just see on Abrams and Bettis? Dr. Lyons was talking about the very worst case scenario of a Cat 4/5 hitting Houston and the oil fields and then Stephanie Abrams asked him if that could happen tomorrow. He stuttered a moment and then said "It's not out of the realm of the possible." Was he considering that this storm could pull MUCH further north? Or was I just totally missing something on this TWC piece? Anyone else see it?


Why would he say that? He may know something we dont or who knows.

He was referring to it as a generality. He has been a long time lonely voice warning about the vulnerability of our energy supply to major hurricanes.

It was not in reference to this storm.

Back to Dolly and she's looking pretty good but will run out of ocean soon. 982 mb is a nice drop from the earlier reports. It looks like we could be on the brink of another, ugh, active GOM season.

[Shawee]

Dude, this is not Rita, Katrina...

amen Wx_Warrior... time for a deep breath.

[Weatherfreak14]

The storm in 3D



Closeup on the eyewall.