Global model runs discussion

[Hammy]

To be fair, the GFS has been fairly consistent now for several days bringing something ashore around June 8-9.

[wxman57]

To be fair, the GFS has been fairly consistent now for several days bringing something ashore around June 8-9.

It was quite consistent in developing a low in the NW Caribbean around June 2nd for about 8-9 days, then it backed off on that idea a few days ago. ECMWF develops a weak low in the BoC (as does the GFS) around June 6th. GFS takes the weak low to Pensacola on the 9th. Euro only goes out 10 days but appears to be aiming a weak low toward the lower to middle Texas coast by June 9th.

[blp]

The Euro is finally hinting at something weak possibly in BOC. It has been moving a little further East with the lower pressure and the GFS further West and they are now aligning over the BOC for the lowest pressure. Still looks to me like the energy will come from the EPAC and crossover.

[Alyono]

6Z GFS develops a TS in the EPAC in about 72 hours, then it develops a GOM system in 5-6 days

[ronjon]

06z GFS now shows a fairly strong tropical storm in the central GOM during Thursday-Friday next week.

[tolakram]

Euro shows something as well, and the Canadian is trying to hit New Orleans with something weak. Nice to see the Canadian up to its old tricks.

[petit_bois]

Red Snapper season is only 9 days this year... this could spoil the only full weekend... 3-5 days of a 9 day season with 6-12 ft seas would be heartbreaking.

[Alyono]

GFS is barely a TS. Very broad and sloppy

[SeGaBob]

6Z GFS develops a TS in the EPAC in about 72 hours, then it develops a GOM system in 5-6 days

I'm wondering if the NHC will mention this for the first TWO tomorrow... or if they will wait for better consistency in the models.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS develops a TS in the EPAC in about 72 hours, then it develops a GOM system in 5-6 days

I'm wondering if the NHC will mention this for the first TWO tomorrow... or if they will wait for better consistency in the models.

There's no disturbance to identify on the outlook, so they probably won't mention that a disturbance will develop in 3-4 days.

[SeGaBob]

That sounds right to me... but they have mentioned them forming within 2 days on some systems. So we may have to let 2 days pass before they mention it.

Edit: I just realized that there is another day in the month and the start of hurricane season is not tomorrow. So wxman57 I was wrong from the start on my earlier post.

[ronjon]

GFS is barely a TS. Very broad and sloppy

Typical for an early season storm - probably sheared too. 06z GFS has been the strongest run thus far with 999 mb however.

[dhweather]

At 492 hours, The GFS has five cats in the gulf.

[CFLHurricane]

Boooo!!!

[chaser1]

At 492 hours, The GFS has five cats in the gulf.

....Then again, the GFS may be on to something. Doesn't take much to capsize a small craft with failed engines, and in high seas. I can see 999mb low in 6 days that the GFS is forecasting, capable of causing 5 cats to be clinging to a boat hull in 492 hours. Lets sit back for a few hours and see if the GFS is still showing 5 cats in the middle of the Gulf - at 480 hrs., LOL! If so... start preppin' the Coast Guard

(by the way, I just checked with the Euro.... it's not even showing any fish in the Gulf out to 10 days )

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about what the models are showing.

When will the first "Invest", tropical depression, and named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season form? We have a chance of all three of these events occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of hurricane season, though the models are currently hazy about this. An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico is forecast to move slowly northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday. The 06Z Friday run of the GFS model predicts that this disturbance will make landfall in Southeast Mexico on Tuesday, then spread moisture northwards over the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate over the Gulf late in the week, potentially allowing the disturbance to spin up into a tropical depression. The 00Z Friday run of the European model has a different solution, predicting that the Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance will remain south of Mexico through Friday. However, the model suggests that moisture streaming into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week will be capable of spawning an area of low pressure with the potential to develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. In any case, residents of Southeast Mexico and Western Guatemala appear at risk to undergo a multi-day period of very heavy rainfall capable of causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides beginning as early as Monday. This disturbance may cross over Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico and create the Atlantic's first "Invest" with the potential to develop late in the week, sometime June 5 - 7.

[chaser1]

Perhaps something will form, but looking at the GFS 200mb forecast, whatever quasi-decent conditions that might exist in the nearer term, don't look to stick around long at all. UL Westerlies to be screaming across the Gulf & Caribb, and tropical Atlantic well before the end of the GFS's 12 run... a la 2013 all over again?

[fci]

6Z GFS develops a TS in the EPAC in about 72 hours, then it develops a GOM system in 5-6 days

I'm wondering if the NHC will mention this for the first TWO tomorrow... or if they will wait for better consistency in the models.

There's no disturbance to identify on the outlook, so they probably won't mention that a disturbance will develop in 3-4 days.

Didn't they start mentioning potential systems up to 5 days out last season even if no disturbance had yet formed?

[tropicwatch]

The GOM might not need the moisture from the pacific, if the storms currently in the Gulf persist for a couple of more days.

[fsusurfer]

This may or may not have any realtion, but the 10 day forecast for Destin has a high % chance of rain/thunderstorms next Saturday/Sunday