ATL: IKE Discussion

[tolakram]

I really don't see any movement of the eye now ...

Put your mouse cursor over the eye in the last frame. It's moving slowly.

Please don't post that it's moving NE now.
You'll give all of the Fl. posters a heart attack......

I did not mention direction, no one mentioned direction, no one mentioned wobbles. Don't even joke about it in my opinion, too many frantic people trying to understand whats going on and thinking that a 15 minute loop is going to reassure them one way or the other.

[ConvergenceZone]

Note to Stormcenter: I completely, UTTERLY disagree with that Pro Met if he claimed not to watch wobbles.


Early in the game it makes no difference...but jesus we're talking 3 1/2 days or so I believe until landfall and THIS is the primary time for the storm to gain latitude before the weakness builds in. Not only do I think considering wobble watching good...i'd freaking RECOMMEND it. Any gain in latitude is HIGHLY significant at this point.


As for my weakening post as well...bring up a sat pic of Gustav after landfall...the difference in organization is obvious. (Structure wise...not intensity)

You make good points, but as we know the conditions for every hurricane is different. First off Ike is absolutely huge, and I don't quite remember Gustav being this large, and I agree with the other posters in that it won't have near the amount of shear to contend with, which is basically what put the nail in Gustav's coffin for further intensification. I'll eat my shorts if this doesn't bomb to at least a cat 3, or low cat 4 in a couple of days, nothing soon though. As KWT mentions, it needs to move away from land.

[rtd2]

good bit of dry air ahead

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

[AL Chili Pepper]

He probably means that the anticyclone is to the east of Ike, and as Ike moves westward, the edge of the anticyclone will shear Ike.

don't know about the shear part (could be true i don't know), but upper-level anti-cyclones located over the storm provide efficient ventilation which aids in intensification. Derek said he didn't expect RI....a Cat 3 maybe.

[fasterdisaster]

good bit of dry air ahead

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

It's been in dry air for 3 days since before it landed in Cuba and moist air is closing in on him. This isn't much to talk about now that by tonight it will be gone.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, the weather channel satellite showed some reds beginning to pop around the eye within the last couple of frames.... Can someone confirm that with a IR Satellite? Sorry, deleted my links by mistake...

[jdjaguar]

Hmm, the weather channel satellite showed some reds beginning to pop around the eye within the last couple of frames.... Can someone confirm that with a IR Satellite? Sorry, deleted my links by mistake...

try noaa hurricane website

[Annie Oakley]

People - I feel AFM's frustration in the models thread.

Please READ a few pages before posting. Use your noggin. There are "veteran" members making posts that make no sense.

A temporary northern jog is expected. That weakness will eventually close. There is nothing to suggest Ike will move into the NC Gulf Coast. Give it a rest. Please.

This storm has 3 days and 3 warm eddies to go before landfall. The core is very well-organized. The setup is there for intensification. If that doesn't concern you then you need to read more and post less.

Very well spoken Jason.....and hopefully no-one in Texas is panicking -we are merely getting prepared. We rely ultimately on the NHS and tell everyone we talk to to do just that. Some of us find enlightenment here on Storm2k in interpretating the NHC discussions. We also find benefit in the intepretation of the various models. We are finding that many people rely on the commercial television channels for their info but we find them bereft of substantial info. In the field we find benefit of passing on real-time info such as that found here.I am too tired to correcgt spellling so I amgoing to hit the button ha ha! Thanks to all of ya'll..........

[Cape Verde]

Kind of surprised that there have been a few posts asking people to do no speculation on what they may see with Ike, or to say what they are thinking. Basically don't speculate anything that opposes what the pros say, or what the NHC says.

We might as well close the forum if that becomes the code of conduct.

The NHC has a website, and if that's all we need, what's the point?

It's the interaction of pros and amateurs, at least the ones with some knowledge of weather systerms, that makes this forum great. The NHC and the pros aren't always right, nor do they claim to be. But the pros challenge each other here occasionally, and the amateurs often do, usually to their dismay.

The result is a lively and educational experience. If it were an exact science, we'd only need one computer model.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The innercore is strengthing based on IR, with deep reds wraping around. The eye should clear out over the next 12 hours to, I would not be suprized if this exploded 20 knots by 11am est. This innercore makes charley seem like Gustav. Also the broad rainbands should keep "most" dry air away from the core of this system.

[MGC]

No need to get freaked out over a wobble or two right now. Ike looks to be getting his act together tonight. Ike sould continue to intensify as the shear is low and the SST are plenty warm. Ike looks to be developing a good central core. All systems go.....MGC

[O Town]

Hmm, the weather channel satellite showed some reds beginning to pop around the eye within the last couple of frames.... Can someone confirm that with a IR Satellite? Sorry, deleted my links by mistake...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Sanibel]

Red IR core:

[curtadams]

Is it me or has the SE eyewall expanded to the Cuban coast at the same rate Ike is headed away from the coast? And is that significant?

That suggests the core is strengthening and producing more and higher convection. The outflow spreads as it rises so the thicker IR band is a higher T-storm cloud ring further out from the center. Also indicating a strengthening core are the cloud tops getting colder and the eye appearing.

[Derek Ortt]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

[Sabanic]

Kind of surprised that there have been a few posts asking people to do no speculation on what they may see with Ike, or to say what they are thinking. Basically don't speculate anything that opposes what the pros say, or what the NHC says.

We might as well close the forum if that becomes the code of conduct.

The NHC has a website, and if that's all we need, what's the point?

It's the interaction of pros and amateurs, at least the ones with some knowledge of weather systerms, that makes this forum great. The NHC and the pros aren't always right, nor do they claim to be. But the pros challenge each other here occasionally, and the amateurs often do, usually to their dismay.

The result is a lively and educational experience. If it were an exact science, we'd only need one computer model.

Cape Verde you misunderstood my post. I never said that challenging them was proper, but I do think that anyone, and everyone has a right to be somewhat concerned at the present time. Right? Like I said it looks as though Ike will make landfall in TX, or possible SW/LA, but he hasn't yet, and sometimes people state their thoughts wanting a response to tell them the facts. This is a forum right?

[jasons2k]

Kind of surprised that there have been a few posts asking people to do no speculation on what they may see with Ike, or to say what they are thinking. Basically don't speculate anything that opposes what the pros say, or what the NHC says. I realize what is supposed to happen, and where Ike is supposed to go, but I also realize there is a whole lot of real estate along the GOM, and we have a hurricane that is supposed to strengthen into a major sitting just off the coast of Cuba. It hasn't made landfall yet and doesn't everyone along the coast have the right to be concerned until it does???

I don't see anyone asking people not to "speculate". There is a difference between speculating and completely ignoring what a pro mets says. Or a pro met pointing out that the last GFS run initialized over 60 miles to the SW and completely ignoring that.

Also, there is a big difference between asking a question "Is there anything that would allow this to hit Florida?" vs "the last few frames show it moving NNW, tomorrow people in AL/FL better wake up!" or whatever when this same issue has been discussed (and discounted) several times over the last day or two, graphics and all.

[Cape Verde]

Kind of surprised that there have been a few posts asking people to do no speculation on what they may see with Ike, or to say what they are thinking. Basically don't speculate anything that opposes what the pros say, or what the NHC says.

We might as well close the forum if that becomes the code of conduct.

The NHC has a website, and if that's all we need, what's the point?

It's the interaction of pros and amateurs, at least the ones with some knowledge of weather systerms, that makes this forum great. The NHC and the pros aren't always right, nor do they claim to be. But the pros challenge each other here occasionally, and the amateurs often do, usually to their dismay.

The result is a lively and educational experience. If it were an exact science, we'd only need one computer model.

Cape Verde you misunderstood my post. I never said that challenging them was proper, but I do think that anyone, and everyone has a right to be somewhat concerned at the present time. Right? Like I said it looks as though Ike will make landfall in TX, or possible SW/LA, but he hasn't yet, and sometimes people state their thoughts wanting a response to tell them the facts. This is a forum right?

Actually, you misunderstand my post. I was agreeing with you and reinforcing the point you were making.

[6SpeedTA95]

The innercore is strengthing based on IR, with deep reds wraping around. The eye should clear out over the next 12 hours to, I would not be suprized if this exploded 20 knots by 11am est. This innercore makes charley seem like Gustav. Also the broad rainbands should keep "most" dry air away from the core of this system.

Don't you think it may be a bit premature to compare this storm to Charley?

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanx for the Sat Pics and for confirming the Reds beginning to wrap around the center....Been waiting for that to start happening, looks like game on........... It wouldn't surprise me to see the winds bumped up 10 knots within the next couple of advisories, if this rate of organization continues.