ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc04/A ... N-824W.jpg

Charley at his peak

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... W.84pc.jpg

Clear eye for Ike...Once it wraps the red around it will look better then Charley.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The red Infrared Core indicates that Ike is certainly strengthening.
Looks like it may go up to 90 mph by 11 pm. (Not official)

[KatDaddy]

Thank goodness Derek. However IKE now is better organized than Izzy was departing the Yucatan. I dont want IKE near the Houston-Galveston are.

[HurricaneRobert]

Good lord that looks like a pinhole eye.

[HURAKAN]

My aunt in Guanajay, Havana Province, Cuba, told us a few minutes ago that the river that runs through the city has overflowed due to the rains of Gustav and now Ike. My grandparents say that they only remember one other time that the river has overflowed. Most of the river has been channeled and its water level is usually very low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The innercore is strengthing based on IR, with deep reds wraping around. The eye should clear out over the next 12 hours to, I would not be suprized if this exploded 20 knots by 11am est. This innercore makes charley seem like Gustav. Also the broad rainbands should keep "most" dry air away from the core of this system.

Don't you think it may be a bit premature to compare this storm to Charley?

In looks, sure. Not track. I expect Ike to move up fast.

[jinftl]

If the track was into South-Central LA right now..no doubt there would be many in Houston who legimately feel they might be threatened. Just last week, when Gustav was in the Gulf, there was post after post arguing west wobbles, model shifts west, insufficient watches/warnings for tx, etc.....we all do it...that is not the point.

The point is that maybe a little bit more empathy could be shown to those who live in LA and along the NC Gulf. they are not alarmists for still being concerned about ike. The cone at 5pm did expand into western LA. Even a landfall on TX/LA border could have surge implications for New Orleans. alot of these same folks just got back from evacuating and are frazzled and tired from that...and they are not asking or expressing concern about ike as people I disagree with....Houston and South Florida do enough of that....;p

[SaoFeng]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

[Sean in New Orleans]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

I totally respect what you say, but, I just really don't see it....I see this system developing nicely tonight. It seems to be wrapping nicely and developing an impressive new eyewall. Maybe it will come into fruition, but, I've looked hard and don't see what you are talking about with this hurricane.

[Weatherfreak000]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

Thank you Derek Ortt!


This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say. Gustav had a way better structure after Cuba...and structure has NOTHING to do with a Hurricane's category.

[SoupBone]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

That's coming tomorrow with te Hadron Collider but that's for another thread....lol...sorry I couldn't resist.


Did the models pick up on this big of a weakness? I don't seem to remember that being discussed.

[Myersgirl]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

He is in the bullring now

[amanda]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

those scientists who are going to reinvent the big bang might be able to help you with that...

[Cyclenall]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

This already has a core and I have a hunch that this will experence a reverse ERC (if any). The outer eyewall looks quite weak compared to the stronger inner eyewall. I wonder how this stucture will evolve over the coming night.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

those scientists who are going to reinvent the big bang might be able to help you with that...

Whoa that would be AWESOME!!! Put one of em big bang accelerators under a cane and suck it in...

[shah8]

Dr. Ortt, I totally respect what you have to say, but those are some very, very cold cloud-tops trying to wrap around. We'll see where we are in 24 hours, hey?

[baitism]

Thank you Derek Ortt!
This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say. Gustav had a way better structure after Cuba...and structure has NOTHING to do with a Hurricane's category.

Is this a joke? Gustav's core completely collapsed upon exiting Cuba...

[Weatherfreak14]

Full Eye now

[Cape Verde]

Don't want ike anywhere...... if only we could put a black hole in the gulf to suck up ike and any other cane that came through

A giant airbonre vaccuum cleaner!

Except that might even leave a bigger low pressure system.

I remember well the debate I started a few years ago when I asked about nuking a hurricane to disrupt it with the obviously brief but intense high pressure the detonation would cause.

Nobody has ever tried it, and there was the predictable emotional negative response. But the pros weighed in and basically convinced me that it wouldn't help or hurt in the long run.

They did concede it would make a neat satellite photo.

[jdjaguar]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

I totally respect what you say, but, I just really don't see it....I see this system developing nicely tonight. It seems to be wrapping nicely and developing an impressive new eyewall. Maybe it will come into fruition, but, I've looked hard and don't see what you are talking about with this hurricane.

In a few days it will be 24-36 hours from landfall. I already see a tight core and I also see the wrapping of convection around the tight eye..it is getting more impressive by the minute...check out the convection exploding to the southeast....as Ike moves into the gulf I expect the loose structure to solidify...rapidly.

not a pro-met just call em as I see em.

stay safe texas..La