ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[pavelbure224]

David Paulson from fema just said Gustav is a cat 5

[Solaris]

Latest reports from Havanna, winds increasing

MUHA 301755Z 05029G48KT 4000 RA FEW015 OVC060 24/22 Q1002
MUHA 301739Z 05026G42KT 4000 RA SCT015 BKN060 25/23 Q1002
MUHA 301655Z 05021G32KT 4000 SCT015 BKN060 25/22 Q1004
MUHA 301639Z 06021G33KT SCT015 OVC060 25/22 Q1004
MUHA 301555Z 05017KT 4000 -RA SCT015 BKN060 24/22 Q1005

[tolakram]

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?

Yes, Hurikan posted some photos earlier in the thread. Beautiful place.

[Cape Verde]

This floater has finally been moved.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Gus looks like a frightening monster.I pray he doesn't become a strong cat 5

Hey, the NE part of the island is enjoying some sunshine!

The fact that most every building is flat is just a minor nuisance.

[Aric Dunn]

ok the next set came in.. looks like they missed the actual center since there was still 14kt winds..
possible cause it partially over the isle of youth

[bob rulz]

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?

About 90,000 people do.

[otowntiger]

Brother and sister....

From what I've been seeing about Hanna, I suppose there is a chance that she could follow right behind Gus? Does anyone, esp, pro mets think that's a possibility? She's not as far away from him as I first thought looking at that satellite image.

[jinftl]

What were max gusts Baton Rouge saw with Katrina? Don't know if they were as high as 85 or 90mph.

I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.

Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds. Thats a lot for a city that far inland!

Are you serious? Man I respect Derek too and his posts and I must have missed that one. I'll keep watching but I may have to send my family further north.

[WmE]

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?

The isle of youth has about 100.000 inhabitants.

[tolakram]

Some wind swath comparisons from Katrina, just FYI.

Katrina


Gustav

[HURAKAN]

[BigB0882]

I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.

Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds. Thats a lot for a city that far inland! Of course a fairly small deviation in track could change that significantly.

Oy vey! Gonna be a long 24 hours come early Tuesday morning if the track holds out for Baton Rouge.

[jasons2k]

Gustav is a large-sized storm and getting larger. I don't understand why some are saying this will be is a small storm like Charley. This is going to have a really bad surge along and well east of the center.

Anyone in a surge zone anywhere in Louisiana or MS should follow evacuation orders and leave. It's really not more complicted than that.

[SoupBone]

What were max gusts Baton Rouge saw with Katrina? Don't know if they were as high as 85 or 90mph.

I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.

[/quote]






I think we saw between 30-40 sustained for Katrina with higher gusts but it really wasn't that bad. This angle has me concerned though. It looks like the NE quadrant will sweep right over us.

[PTPatrick]

I know this isnt a Katrina size storm but if this thing gets as strong as the NHC is forecasting, and hits Terrebonne Parrish, you can be SURE that Terrebonne and Lafouche would have 20+ foot surge and 15 to 20 and Plaquemines. Heck Mobile county had close to 15 feet and it was 90 miles from the center Katrina. Plaquemines is only 50 miles from Terrebonne parrish. I dont think its unreasonable to assume that New Orleans COULD actually have a worse surge problem than with Katrina, not to mention rainfall from a slow moving storm, which SE LA did NOT have in Katrina either.

I wish I new what the actually surge was in that area for Betsy. Betsy wasnt a huge storm and I know it caused 8-10 foot surge even in East Jackson County mississippi because Betsy's surge got a little water in part of Grandma's house. Of course Betsy came in 50 miles east of where this one is supposed to. I know my folks in Pascagoula are heading out to Hattiesburg in the morning just because they are on low ground and even a 6 foot surge would flood their cars if they stayed, not to mention they would be trapped.

[jwayne]

In looking at Gulf WV, is that a High pushing south and west off of the Gulf coast? If so, wouldn't that tend to turn it west (and I'm not talking about three days from now)?

[tolakram]

I think we saw between 30-40 sustained for Katrina with higher gusts but it really wasn't that bad. This angle has me concerned though. It looks like the NE quadrant will sweep right over us.

Evacuate further north, don't second guess. In my opinion you have to concede that you;re not in a position to make a rational decision about this storm, I know I wouldn't be, so your best bet is to head north until there is no doubt of your safety.

[soonertwister]

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?

Yes, quite a few. I think someone earlier said something like 100,000.

BTW, NOLA Mayor Ray Nagin says he "may" order mandatory evacuation for New Orleans proper at 9 am tomorrow if the track doesn't move to the west.

9 am is about 48 hours from landfall, more or less depending on forward speed. The travelling conditions are going to deteriorate badly far in advance of landfall. Already traffic on I-10 heading west out of town is described to be at a crawl.

Here we go again...

[jinftl]

Gustav is not a small hurricane. Currently, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles form the center and ts force winds extend 175 mph from the center. Gusts to 40 mph have been occuring in squalls all the way to south florida today.

By comparison, Charley had hurricane force winds only 30 miles from the center and ts force winds 105 miles from the center at its strongest right before landfall.

Katrina has hurricane force winds approx 100 miles from the center and ts force winds 230 miles from the center.