ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Isidore losted its inncore totally...I Remember that system clearly. This is NO isidore, it has a well defined innercore at this moment. In fact convection is wraping around it, with a clear eye developing. It would not suprize me that after 24 hours that a broader eye developed, but intil then this is not going through any kind of real EWRC. Again this is NOT isidore.

[Lowpressure]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

This already has a core and I have a hunch that this will experence a reverse ERC (if any). The outer eyewall looks quite weak compared to the stronger inner eyewall. I wonder how this stucture will evolve over the coming night.

The pressure being relatively low has my intriqued. Structure is nice but the core is split. Inner core is ok, outer wall is large and ragged. I am agreeing with Derek here. I thin Ike will take more time to intensify than some may think. Ike has been in some sort of ERC since his initial approach to Cuba over two days ago. Setup is strange.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Dr. Ortt, I totally respect what you have to say, but those are some very, very cold cloud-tops trying to wrap around. We'll see where we are in 24 hours, hey?

He's the scientist, he must have access to something I don't, because this looks like a developing system that has a fairly decent eyewall tonight. Maybe it will totally collapse and withdraw by morning....we'll see. Either way, we're all just watching and hoping it dies anyway.

[Portastorm]

Wow, watch how quickly this eye pops up after emerging from the Cuban coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Ike's not messing around!

[Annie Oakley]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

Thank you Derek Ortt!


This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say. Gustav had a way better structure after Cuba...and structure has NOTHING to do with a Hurricane's category.

We listen to Derek Ott in Texas, believe me. We look forward to his further statements...(holding back lol-he could easily be one of those Honorary Texans chosen for his straightforward intelligence, impatience with nonsense, and his dry wit). Overall factor: knowledge built upon experience and education.

[HurricaneRobert]

Are you sure its not undergoing RI right now?

[Sean in New Orleans]

There is seperation and dry air to the SW??:

[jasons2k]

There is a possibility is Ike is slower trough #2 could hook this into SW LA. I don't think anyone is denying that. But punching through this little weakness now up to FL panhandle is just not really possible....

[wxman57]

For the record, I have a 3hr movement of 289 deg. at 9.5 kts using satellite.

Using Key West radar I get 288 deg at 10.2 kts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is seperation:

Who's to say that the innercore that is strengthing can't over power the outter-eye. The inner eye looks to be strengthing/becoming better defined. It is not impossible.

[Pearl River]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
Looks like the colder cloud tops in the nw quadrant are pulling in some dryer air and also looks like the north side is feeling a little tug from the trough the way the clouds appear to be pulling to the north some. jmho.

Not a wish caster, not a pro-met, just someone who has followed storms since Hilda '64 to now Gustav '08

[ronjon]

My aunt in Guanajay, Havana Province, Cuba, told us a few minutes ago that the river that runs through the city has overflowed due to the rains of Gustav and now Ike. My grandparents say that they only remember one other time that the river has overflowed. Most of the river has been channeled and its water level is usually very low.

Hurakan, the area just east of Havana has been getting hammered all day by heavy rain as banding has set up. RADAR estimates from Key West are now 6-8 inches over the last 12 hrs.

Ike's convection is increasing around the eye like feature and the dry air to the the east of the center is getting filled in by convection. Still some dry air to mix out, but I think by morning we'll have a stronger hurricane. Motion has really slowed over the last 6 hrs or so - say maybe 6 or 7 mph to the W-NW.

[ConvergenceZone]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

Thank you Derek Ortt!


This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say. Gustav had a way better structure after Cuba...and structure has NOTHING to do with a Hurricane's category.

well, we'll see. I still think this is going to be a Major, regardless of what you you guys are saying....Everthing points to a Major, and I'm sorry, but I can't see that not occuring with 3 days over the gulf.....

[Lowpressure]

Based on that sat pic. The inner core is looking better with the eye clearing out nicely. The problem is the inner core is small with several areas around it with broken exterior core. The outer wall needs to either constrict or weaken and allow the inner core to expand or this will take a while.

[jinftl]

Is forecasting taking the end result you expect and working backwards to support it or is taking the support you have and making a forecast?

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

Thank you Derek Ortt!


This is EXACTLY what I was trying to say. Gustav had a way better structure after Cuba...and structure has NOTHING to do with a Hurricane's category.

well, we'll see. I still think this is going to be a Major, regardless of what you you guys are saying....Everthing points to a Major, and I'm sorry, but I can't see that not occuring with 3 days over the gulf.....

[wxman57]

well, we'll see. I still think this is going to be a Major, regardless of what you you guys are saying....Everthing points to a Major, and I'm sorry, but I can't see that not occuring with 3 days over the gulf.....

I don't think Derek is saying it won't be a major hurricane. In fact, he's forecasting it to reach 100 kts. But not tonight. It'll take a good 24 hours to get going.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on that sat pic. The inner core is looking better with the eye clearing out nicely. The problem is the inner core is small with several areas around it with broken exterior core. The outer wall needs to either constrict or weaken and allow the inner core to expand or this will take a while.

The outtereye is to broad, I'm going for the innercore taking over and the outtereye to tighten up with it, and weaken into banding. Remember this just got off land...The innercore is way stronger then the outter. This won't do a isidore.

[Lowpressure]

[
well, we'll see. I still think this is going to be a Major, regardless of what you you guys are saying....Everthing points to a Major, and I'm sorry, but I can't see that not occuring with 3 days over the gulf.....[/quote]

I think most still agree on that point. The discussion is how soon does it really intensify. Is it doing it now like some think, or is it going to have to organize the inner cores better before it does. Do not let the eye fool you, eye does not mean rapid intensification is occuring.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Inner core exploding...wind field will expand rapidly with the current
forward motion...and unless I'm hallucinating, some very
strong rainbands hit a few hours ago along Tampa Bay with gusts easily
to tropical storm force. A small core = this thing is going to bomb.

24 hours- 125 mph
48 hours- 185 mph, very similar to Rita's intensification
72 hours- 150 mph, begans to suck in dry air from TX
Landfall around 125 mph as dry air comes in at 84 hours

[AZRainman]

What's with this pin sized eye phenom on a cat 1 storm? I have yet to see that observation brought up for such low velocity. That concentric eyewall replacement for hours and hours doesn't seem to be a logical explanation for this. I been watching trop wx since 97 and heck if I can recall a similar event, cept until lately.