CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[marcane_1973]

Mannn...What a difference a couple of hours makes. This is the best that Dean has looked in his overall structure and center. Dry air is not a problem now. Dean is looking more and more like a Katrina. Just unbelievable. Dean now has the potential to become a Cat 5 before he swipes Jamaica. This could be the biggest hit that they have had in awhile especially if it ends up being a direct hit. Anyone know what Gilberts strength was when he hit Jamaica? The latest infrared satellite pic tells it all. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[srainhoutx]

I have to say that this really looks like a Mexico deal, though it is still five days out. That is the only thing that bothers me- a track forecast that is almost spot on 5-7 days out? Wow. Of course it could still be off by 300 miles and this goes way south across the southern BOC- that would qualify for a large track error at 4-5 days too.

And for everyone who said "trough is strong this season"- how's that trough doing now?

And also those who said the 2007 is a dud,dead etc.

Too Funny. Enjoy the Forum.

[Frank P]

For the past three hours or more Dean has been tracking due west right on the 15 deg lat line... great presentation on this link... add the Lat/long lines ....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-ir2.html

be interesting to see when it will start showing any northerly component.... not sure how old the forecast points are but Dean is heading well south of them at the moment

I can tell you this, Jamaica doesn't want to see any northerly component for sure

[CrazyC83]

697
URNT15 KNHC 180040
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 17 20070818
003030 1514N 06357W 6967 03150 0068 +075 +075 150056 057 040 004 00
003100 1516N 06357W 6966 03151 0067 +076 +075 150056 057 043 000 00
003130 1518N 06358W 6963 03152 0074 +072 +072 150055 056 044 002 00
003200 1520N 06358W 6967 03153 0079 +069 +069 148053 056 045 002 00
003230 1522N 06358W 6964 03155 0080 +067 +067 144055 056 043 003 00
003300 1525N 06359W 6967 03155 0066 +079 +076 146057 057 044 002 03
003330 1527N 06400W 6967 03152 0067 +079 +074 143055 057 044 001 00
003400 1529N 06400W 6956 03165 0085 +065 +065 147055 056 044 006 00
003430 1531N 06401W 6967 03153 0072 +075 +075 141057 060 046 019 00
003500 1533N 06402W 6978 03140 0086 +065 +065 141058 063 045 032 03
003530 1535N 06403W 6956 03166 0076 +074 +074 143059 062 045 004 03
003600 1537N 06403W 6972 03151 0081 +071 +071 141057 059 046 002 00
003630 1539N 06403W 6968 03158 0074 +079 +075 139056 056 046 000 00
003700 1541N 06403W 6965 03160 0073 +080 +070 138058 059 047 001 00
003730 1544N 06403W 6964 03164 0074 +080 +069 137056 057 044 001 00
003800 1546N 06403W 6965 03163 0076 +079 +069 137054 055 045 000 00
003830 1548N 06403W 6971 03158 0078 +080 +066 136052 053 044 001 00
003900 1550N 06403W 6968 03159 0078 +080 +073 132052 053 049 004 00
003930 1552N 06404W 6966 03166 0087 +071 +071 119052 054 051 032 03
004000 1554N 06404W 6973 03159 0105 +058 +058 110053 060 050 018 05

[RL3AO]

697
URNT15 KNHC 180040
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 17 20070818
003030 1514N 06357W 6967 03150 0068 +075 +075 150056 057 040 004 00
003100 1516N 06357W 6966 03151 0067 +076 +075 150056 057 043 000 00
003130 1518N 06358W 6963 03152 0074 +072 +072 150055 056 044 002 00
003200 1520N 06358W 6967 03153 0079 +069 +069 148053 056 045 002 00
003230 1522N 06358W 6964 03155 0080 +067 +067 144055 056 043 003 00
003300 1525N 06359W 6967 03155 0066 +079 +076 146057 057 044 002 03
003330 1527N 06400W 6967 03152 0067 +079 +074 143055 057 044 001 00
003400 1529N 06400W 6956 03165 0085 +065 +065 147055 056 044 006 00
003430 1531N 06401W 6967 03153 0072 +075 +075 141057 060 046 019 00
003500 1533N 06402W 6978 03140 0086 +065 +065 141058 063 045 032 03
003530 1535N 06403W 6956 03166 0076 +074 +074 143059 062 045 004 03
003600 1537N 06403W 6972 03151 0081 +071 +071 141057 059 046 002 00
003630 1539N 06403W 6968 03158 0074 +079 +075 139056 056 046 000 00
003700 1541N 06403W 6965 03160 0073 +080 +070 138058 059 047 001 00
003730 1544N 06403W 6964 03164 0074 +080 +069 137056 057 044 001 00
003800 1546N 06403W 6965 03163 0076 +079 +069 137054 055 045 000 00
003830 1548N 06403W 6971 03158 0078 +080 +066 136052 053 044 001 00
003900 1550N 06403W 6968 03159 0078 +080 +073 132052 053 049 004 00
003930 1552N 06404W 6966 03166 0087 +071 +071 119052 054 051 032 03
004000 1554N 06404W 6973 03159 0105 +058 +058 110053 060 050 018 05
$$

[cjrciadt]

Heat Potential
SST's

[Blown Away]

Dean gone a little S of 15N.

[jaxfladude]

The hurricane force winds are now up to 30 miles from the center up from 15-25 since Dean become a hurricane....It is getting stronger and bigger as time goes by......

[Blown Away]

The hurricane force winds are now up to 30 miles from the center up from 15-25 since Dean become a hurricane....It is getting stronger and bigger as time goes by......

Still a compact storm.

[Acral]

But that seems to be changing. Katrina really didn't explode in size until she entered the GoM if memory serves.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking a possible shift again south as Dean moves West.

[Category6]

Right now I'd say the center is at 14.9

[RL3AO]

997
URNT15 KNHC 180050
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 18 20070818
004030 1556N 06404W 6983 03141 0093 +064 +064 129055 061 049 043 05
004100 1558N 06405W 6964 03168 0081 +079 +078 132055 057 048 002 00
004130 1600N 06405W 6969 03163 0082 +081 +081 130058 062 049 001 00
004200 1602N 06405W 6960 03176 0083 +079 +079 132058 058 047 002 00
004230 1604N 06406W 6968 03166 0082 +080 +080 136061 063 046 002 00
004300 1607N 06406W 6968 03178 0086 +082 +081 134057 059 048 000 03
004330 1608N 06408W 6963 03175 0090 +081 +075 131059 060 999 999 03
004400 1608N 06410W 6964 03174 0090 +080 +070 132054 056 049 000 03
004430 1606N 06411W 6968 03168 0078 +084 +072 132052 053 052 000 00
004500 1605N 06412W 6967 03166 0082 +080 +078 130052 054 052 000 00
004530 1604N 06414W 6967 03166 0077 +084 +072 129053 054 053 001 00
004600 1603N 06415W 6966 03166 0075 +084 +069 130054 056 054 000 00
004630 1601N 06416W 6965 03162 0076 +082 +073 131056 057 052 000 00
004700 1600N 06417W 6965 03162 0074 +082 +067 130055 055 053 000 00
004730 1559N 06419W 6969 03161 0075 +080 +070 130055 056 051 001 00
004800 1558N 06420W 6967 03158 0074 +079 +070 130057 058 052 001 00
004830 1557N 06421W 6964 03161 0074 +078 +069 131058 060 051 003 00
004900 1555N 06423W 6967 03157 0080 +072 +072 130058 062 052 003 00
004930 1554N 06424W 6957 03166 0083 +067 +067 121062 067 050 004 00
005000 1553N 06425W 6987 03133 0077 +072 +072 128060 060 049 004 00
$$

[Weatherfreak14]

The hurricane force winds are now up to 30 miles from the center up from 15-25 since Dean become a hurricane....It is getting stronger and bigger as time goes by......

Still a compact storm.

I think it will expand tommrow as it gets into more open waters and especially when it gets into the gulf. Tommorrow Dean moves over the warmest waters in the carribean.

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak agrees with RECON's findings:

17/2345 UTC 14.9N 65.1W T6.0/6.0 DEAN -- Atlantic Ocean

[vacanechaser]

The hurricane force winds are now up to 30 miles from the center up from 15-25 since Dean become a hurricane....It is getting stronger and bigger as time goes by......

Still a compact storm.

yep, but the bigger and stronger it gets and slows, the greater the chance increases that it hits or finds a weakness somewhere to turn into... not saying that will happen, but certainly a possiblity..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jaxfladude]

^^^^^^
Bigger is worse...even if it is still thought of as a "compact hurricane..."

The hurricane force winds are now up to 30 miles from the center up from 15-25 since Dean become a hurricane....It is getting stronger and bigger as time goes by......

Still a compact storm.

Thanks for that added info, should have said the like......
I feel bad if and when this Cat3/4/ 5 hurricane hits anyone.....

[Rainband]

Man this thing is unreal. I am Happy Florida is safe but I feel for whereever he makes his mark.

[windstorm99]

[img][/img]

[Sabanic]

I'm thinking a possible shift again south as Dean moves West.

reason ??