ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BigB0882]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

The only thing I can figure is that the only place they have friends and family is West of Nola? Otherwise it must be complete ignorance and they are not being informed properly. Everyone should be heading North and/or NorthEast out of Nola. Personally, I'd be going to the Atlanta region.

Oh, and as Cape Verde said, some may be going West through to Austin, San Antonio, etc. That is not a bad idea, just going to be a LONG drive.

[PTPatrick]

Although I will say that coming in a 60 degree angle, unlike Katrina which was at a 90 degree angle would help a little with surge...a little

[ROCK]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

north by what a few miles? last update look to be right on.... JMO...

[HURAKAN]

[93superstorm]

Wow, looking at the visible, this thing has really grown and very nice classic stadium effect

[ROCK]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

Evacuating west to Houston is stupid unless you're continuing on to Austin. Yes, it looks like a Louisiana storm RIGHT NOW, but it doesn't have to shift too much to the west to make it a Houston storm.

I had neighbors here who evacuated to Beaumont to get out of Rita's path. They evacuated right into it.

North. North. North.

It's basic common sense. None of us here know where the precise landfall will be, but it will be on the coast. DUH. Head inland.

Houston is in the cone so from what I heard we are a pass through city, Not taking evacuees formally that is....

[Ivanhater]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

Yeah dwg..north and east of the mostupdated track, I wonder how much it is off from the track early this morning..bit east of the models that had thos going directly over the island..Increasing concern for SE LA imo

[pavelbure224]

Mike Watkins is on CNN talking about tracking Gustav in New Orleans

[pojo]

Courtesy of WeatherTap - notice the lightning in Gustav's northern eyewall from the violent dynamics? We saw the same thing in Katrina, Rita, and Charley as they were rapidly intensifying. This tells me that Gustav is continuing to bomb as we speak.

anytime we see lightning in the eyewall... that's a sure sign of RI.... Felix did this also....
also associated with RI is severe turbulence... I talked with last nights crew and they had a few decent pockets of moderate to severe turbulence.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Absolute rascal of a storm! This situation is HORRIBLE where people affected by katrina/rita
and people in Cuba will have to suffer through another traumatic event. DIE GUSTAV!!!! You
traumatic POS!!!

[6SpeedTA95]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

It's about getting inland and above the surge path. NO is very low moving west can get you to higher ground.

[Bocadude85]

can you even imagine what the conditions on the isle of youth are like right now?

[Cape Verde]

There's higher ground in SW LA at natural levees along rivers, plus some flood control levees around the Atchafalaya. There are flood walls along the river outlet at Morgan City as far as I remember. New Iberia's high ground I believe is high along the Teche natural levee.
Huge rainfall would be a big problem. It would be good to see a surge model, does it flow up the Atachfalaya basin and do the outer levees protect Henderson, etc from backside surge flooding?

Not a hydro expert or local, just have traveled and studied some of SW LA.

I shouldn't hold myself out as any sort of expert on Louisiana. I did live in Lafayette for three years, but I never even went to Morgan City once during that period.

I did get Hurricane Andrew, and a branch of a tree did crack my brick exterior of the house. There is nothing worse than a major hurricane hitting during nighttime hours, and Gustav might well do that to someone, too.

I'm feeling a little more confident about Houston, but I'm still going to get full tanks of gasoline. Regardles of where this hits, gasolline supplies are likely to be disrupted, at best.

[dwg71]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

Yeah dwg..north and east of the mostupdated track, I wonder how much it is off from the track early this morning..bit east of the models that had thos going directly over the island..Increasing concern for SE LA imo

5am forecast had it at 21.2N and 82.7W at 5pm this evening. Last update was 21.6N 82.5 west. thats a big miss.

[dhweather]

Please don't make derogatory comments about people evacuating NOLA to the West. Remember this - they ARE evacuating, which they did NOT do last time. There are hotels with room in Texas
not in Mississippi or Alabama.

[Stormcenter]

This looks catastrophic...If anyone from New Orleans or
the ENTIRE CONE REGION happens
to be reading this thread...AND LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE, I have 3 words: GET OUT NOW!!!
I'm sure many have evacauted. Also not just new orleans but many
on the gulf coast if you are in a surge zone: GET OUT NOW!!!
My prayers are with you and I am hoping to God that something
happens that somehow kills off the storm surge or stops Gustav.
I believe that prayers help.

An outer band of Gustav produced wind gusts to 40 mph here along
a Saint Petersburg Canal, over 300 miles from the center. Outer bands
are producing gusty winds to tropical storm force well away from the center,
meaning hundreds of miles. THIS IS NOT A SMALL STORM.

Again, PRAYERS with all of those in the path. We can only hope that somehow
massive shear arrives and destroys Gustav completely before it even gets near
any more land. Right now Cuba is going through a catastrophic hurricane.
My prayers are with them. The communist government evacuated everyone
hopefully.

Weather Channel just said this would not be Cat.4 or 5 when it makes
landfall, if that makes anyone feel better.

[captain east]

The population on that island has probably been decreased drastically...

[Ivanhater]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

Yeah dwg..north and east of the mostupdated track, I wonder how much it is off from the track early this morning..bit east of the models that had thos going directly over the island..Increasing concern for SE LA imo

5am forecast had it at 21.2N and 82.7W at 5pm this evening. Last update was 21.6N 82.5 west. thats a big miss.

Hmm thanks...let's see if it gets back on track today

[ROCK]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

Yeah dwg..north and east of the mostupdated track, I wonder how much it is off from the track early this morning..bit east of the models that had thos going directly over the island..Increasing concern for SE LA imo

Ivan- heres the NHC as of 1pm...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

vs where it is now....looks like its right on......


models:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[mvtrucking]

Does anyone have the bulletin the NHC put out with Katrina that had what a Cat 5 damage would be like? It was fairly long and had all of the dangers of debris, impact on tall buldings, etc?