ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

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Trader Ron
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#701 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:43 am

ronjon wrote:06Z GFDL now has landfall near St Augustine. By 8PM Thursday, the GFDL has a 110 kt hurricane (951 mb) about 50 miles east of the Cape. Trending west since yesterday by most of the models - key is how far west for FL? Stay tuned.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090106-hanna08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



It will be interesting where Hanna goes after landfall. Does it get buried inland, or run up the Eastern Seaboard?

:double:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#702 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:43 am

06Z NOGAPs near GFDL landfall (Daytona to St Aug).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008090106
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#703 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:46 am




And UP the Eastern Seaboard.

:double: :double:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#704 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:53 am

Trader Ron wrote:
ronjon wrote:06Z GFDL now has landfall near St Augustine. By 8PM Thursday, the GFDL has a 110 kt hurricane (951 mb) about 50 miles east of the Cape. Trending west since yesterday by most of the models - key is how far west for FL? Stay tuned.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090106-hanna08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



It will be interesting where Hanna goes after landfall. Does it get buried inland, or run up the Eastern Seaboard?

:double:

Trader, I think the steering is such is that Hanna will go NW and then N - just depends on where she makes that turn - if its west, she go up the spine of FL - further east, offshore and toward the carolinas.
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#705 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:58 am

Normally the Westerlies take over North of N.C. We'll see.
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#706 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:31 am

12Z GFS should be running soon.....
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#707 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 01, 2008 10:59 am

GFS coming in. Makes a loop, and heads WNW-NW at 72 hours. It appears that it is heading towards Florida, but that is just the run so far:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
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#708 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:00 am

12Z is way to close for comfort so far..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re:

#709 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:14 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:12Z is way to close for comfort so far..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


You can say that again. The jury is still out.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#710 Postby captain east » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:17 am

The 12z could shift even a little more west and make it even worse...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#711 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:24 am

captain east wrote:The 12z could shift even a little more west and make it even worse...


landfall savanah
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#712 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:30 am

12Z NAM takes a hurricane into WPB.

Image
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#713 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:35 am

Ron,

The only good thing you can say..it's the NAM.

:wink:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#714 Postby Philly12 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:44 am

The 12Z GFS may have been initiallized too weak and too far north based on the recon data. Not sure what that means to overall track. Just my $.02.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#715 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:56 am

Philly12 wrote:The 12Z GFS may have been initiallized too weak and too far north based on the recon data. Not sure what that means to overall track. Just my $.02.



980 mb low per GFS at 84 hours. For a global, that is suggesting a pretty good hurricane.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#716 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:59 am

What Lat/Long did the 12Z GFS Initialize?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs

#717 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:59 am

Based on 12Z GFS, I wouldn't be surprised with sustained low end tropical storm force winds offshore as it approaches New York City next Saturday.

NHC may declare it extratropical or a depression before then and hand it off to HPC, but if they don't, a tropical storm warning for Nassau County, land of my yute, is possible.
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Re:

#718 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:24 pm

Trader Ron wrote:Ron,

The only good thing you can say..it's the NAM.

:wink:


Yeah, trader, I usually preface the posting with "yes, I realize it's the NAM." :lol: Still can't totally discard it as the 12Z GFS comes awful close to the east coast of FL.
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#719 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:31 pm

Seems like some tightening in the model consensus with UKMET and outlier still:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html
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Re:

#720 Postby Philly12 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:Seems like some tightening in the model consensus with UKMET and outlier still:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

That map is missing the CMC and the EURO. Both show a threat to FL.
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