ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

What's amazing is how fast this exploded into a well defined system, under El Niño conditions.

El niño usually does not produce significant shear in this area. Storms have often intensified significantly here during el niños

Agreed, this is the sweet spot of the Atlantic the past couple of years. Once systems finds their way into this area (the Bermuda triangle) they have a chance.

[northjaxpro]

Well, Joaquin did originate from the large ULL whcih was north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout all last week. The large ULL then interacted with a surface trough and found an area of less hospitable shear to allow for the rare transition of ULL to tropical cyclone. I take some pride in being the first to call for such development from the ULL to possibly take place last week.

The upper low originated from a trough that came off the NC coast on September 15: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images ... rigin.html

And yes, you do take pride in that call, mentioning it every chance you can.

HurricaneBelle,
Because I gave jax kudos for this great call, I'd like to say a few things about this:
1) He didn't initially say anything about this coup til several, including myself and I think ozonepete, gave him kudos. He took the time to thank each of us for doing that. I appreciated that. Excluding those thank you posts, I don't think he has mentioned this more than a couple of times including tonight.
2) To help build reputation for a poster making good calls and get people to pay more attention to that poster's future calls on a very crowded forum like this, I don't see a problem with an occasional reminder of a coup from that actual poster. Remember that not every reader reads every post. Also, it is good for record-keeping purposes here and also helps readers learn more about wx predicting.
3) It isn't as if he makes calls like this about upper lows often.
4) It is uncommon for upper lows to do this as I assume you know. So, not an easy call.
5) Please be honest. Would you say nothing about a similar coup you, alone, were to make here if nobody else said anything? Just let it be potentially forgotten? If I were in his shoes, I'd say something for the record, if nothing else. If a tree falls and there is no animal nearby to hear it, does it make a sound?

Well, thanks Larry for the comments. I will say one last thing about this and let it be. I am on here to always learn and study the weather and the atmosphere. I have done it for much of my adult life. I think Storm2K is the best forum on the world wide web for professional mets, experienced weather observers and enthusists of the like to come together and share their insights, thoughts and opinions. Storm2K is a wonderful forum, one in which I am proud to have just observed this week as being a member of for 5 years. I enjoy and respect really every one on this forum. So , I turned out right about Joaquin's formation. However, I can promise you , in my over 25 years of studying and prepping for forecasts, I have been burned and served crow many many times like most of the rest of you for sure.

Again, thanks to Larry, Ozonepete, NDG and others who gave mention about my call last week. It is a good feeling to get one like this right, but the downside is that this potential monster in the making is one which really could wreak major havoc along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. by this weekend. I have deep concerns as the week progresses about the uncertainties surrounding this storm.

[Hammy]

Convection almost looks like an outflow boundary/arc cloud the way it's spreading west, but I know this is upper level--is this likely the western outflow being established?

[boca]

I guess Florida will be spared from this storm,but I have family in New Jersey and will call them tomorrow

[drewschmaltz]

looks like even more dry air is being pulled in?

[Aric Dunn]

LIke I mentioned about an hour or 2 ago.. if recon was there they would say OPEN SW..


very impressive change from exposed circ at 2pm today.. to this.. I would wager we have a 80 mph hurricane.

[SeGaBob]

I place a good bit of trust in northjaxpro. He's answered a lot of my questions in the 2 years that I've been on this site, and I've never had an unreasonable answer from him.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like even more dry air is being pulled in?

there is no dry air. the convection collapsing is quite normal during this stage.

[tolakram]

This is only upper level WV but I don't think it's dry air, I think it's reorganizing with new convection firing near the center.

live WV loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=wv&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[Andrew92]

Let's also remember that this is not a firmly established hurricane. This is a strong tropical storm to borderline minimal hurricane. Storms with intensities like this should be expected to look well-organized, but have imperfections about them, such as an open eyewall or fluctuating convection.

Conditions are very favorable in the long run for a major hurricane to come out of this. Just because these details are there, does not mean this is an unhealthy storm or can't get stronger.

-Andrew92

[Steve H.]

Well I wouldn't give high fives all around yet. The Euro could very well be right, and the trough could push him out to sea. Still a low confidence forecast at this point Hopefully tomorrow will give us some definitive answers.

[tropicwatch]

Here is a different look.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[rickybobby]

I guess Florida will be spared from this storm,but I have family in New Jersey and will call them tomorrow

Wesh 2 said when a storm intensifies so quickly that it could continue going west or south west and not go north.

[boca]

Even though Florida is off the hook it still makes me nervous til it makes the expected north turn

[Aric Dunn]

Thats nearly a closed eyewall in the low and mid level on microwave i just posted. once this new convective burst establishes itself we will start to see a eye feature show on sat over the next couple hours.

[Aric Dunn]

And yes that is very close to where the center on satellite right now that little void. convection beginning to build around it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[RL3AO]

I've gone from "This is looking like an interesting system to track" to "oh...crap this is not looking good" in less than 24 hours.

[northjaxpro]

The big wild card in all of this is a chance of Joaquin "pumping the ridge". It has happened with intensifying tropical cyclones in the past, which in essence can create their own environment.

[boca]

There isn't a single model having this storm head this far west it will hopefully turn north before it gets close to Florida and hopefully spare the US east coast but that's looking more unlikely

[TheStormExpert]

What's amazing is how fast this exploded into a well defined system, under El Niño conditions.

El niño usually does not produce significant shear in this area. Storms have often intensified significantly here during el niños

Agreed, this is the sweet spot of the Atlantic the past couple of years. Once systems finds their way into this area (the Bermuda triangle) they have a chance.

Not to mention this one originated from an ULL just north of Puerto Rico which means it formed just west of all that shear blasting through the Caribbean and to the NE of it.