EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

tatertawt24 · #701 Postby **tatertawt24** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:36 am

spiral wrote:

Those cloud tops are sick. Haiyan flashbacks.

dexterlabio · #702 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:39 am

I know Wilma made her mark but imo Patricia is Haiyan's only equivalent in the Western Hemisphere. I sincerely hope the damage won't be as bad as with Haiyan. One thing I need to ask, is that area sparsely populated? Also is there a threat of high storm surge matching Katrina or Haiyan?

euro6208 · #703 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:42 am

WOW! 175 knots!?! :double:

Hammy · #704 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:43 am

mrbagyo wrote:I just can't wait for the first visible image.
Do we have any day/night band imagery from VIIRS?

Latest appears to be about 24 hours ago so we should get another one any time.

#705 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:00 am

WeatherGuesser · #706 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:05 am

NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins warned that Patricia was also on course to be the strongest hurricane or typhoon to ever make landfall.

#Patrica at 200 mph now tied for 3rd strongest storm on our planet. Typhoon 1)Nancy 215 mph 2)Typhoon Violet 205 mph 3)Typhoon Ida 200 mph

#707 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:09 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins warned that Patricia was also on course to be the strongest hurricane or typhoon to ever make landfall.

#Patrica at 200 mph now tied for 3rd strongest storm on our planet. Typhoon 1)Nancy 215 mph 2)Typhoon Violet 205 mph 3)Typhoon Ida 200 mph

Interesting. But the case can be made that Patricia could've been much stronger than those storms had Recon made one more pass. The storm was still intensifying and the last pass showed 192kt winds.

bahamaswx · #708 Postby **bahamaswx** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:13 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins warned that Patricia was also on course to be the strongest hurricane or typhoon to ever make landfall.

#Patrica at 200 mph now tied for 3rd strongest storm on our planet. Typhoon 1)Nancy 215 mph 2)Typhoon Violet 205 mph 3)Typhoon Ida 200 mph

All of those storms are of an era where wind measurements are known to have been erroneously high.

euro6208 · #709 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:13 am

Just to show how valuable recon is. This looks like many of the Super Typhoons and numerous of them had higher dvorak and ADT, Patricia is at 6.5 and ADT at 7.7 or 161 knots only.

I can't imagine how strong they were especially the mega's Haiyan and Megi.

Patricia would be the 2nd ever TC worldwide to reach 175 knots in the 21st century after Megi...

Nightwatch · #710 Postby **Nightwatch** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:19 am

I ready everywhere it's the strongest hurricane on the planet ever recorded.

But is it really? I spotted u guys still taking about "tied with others", and Megi/Haiyan etc?

#711 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:24 am

This thing could very well be challenging Tip...

NotoSans · #712 Postby **NotoSans** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:28 am

Nightwatch wrote:I ready everywhere it's the strongest hurricane on the planet ever recorded.

But is it really? I spotted u guys still taking about "tied with others", and Megi/Haiyan etc?

Technically, Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone in terms of wind speed since reliable record began. Typhoons listed by WeatherGuesser did have higher wind speed (for example, Nancy is a 185-kt storm), but JTWC has stated that the estimates back in the 1960s might not be reliable. For Haiyan, JTWC had it at 170 kt, but it should be noted that no recon were available, and it is based solely on satellite imagery (i.e. the Dvorak technique). For Megi, despite recon supporting 170 kt, JTWC had it at 160 kt in their best track. Storms like Haiyan may have higher intensity, but there were no solid proof. So in the official record, Patricia is no. 1.

xtyphooncyclonex · #713 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:29 am

euro6208 wrote:Just to show how valuable recon is. This looks like many of the Super Typhoons and numerous of them had higher dvorak and ADT, Patricia is at 6.5 and ADT at 7.7 or 161 knots only.

I can't imagine how strong they were especially the mega's Haiyan and Megi.

Patricia would be the 2nd ever TC worldwide to reach 175 knots in the 21st century after Megi...

Patricia is THE ONLY storm that reached such intensity post 1980

Nightwatch · #714 Postby **Nightwatch** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:31 am

NotoSans wrote:
Nightwatch wrote:I ready everywhere it's the strongest hurricane on the planet ever recorded.

But is it really? I spotted u guys still taking about "tied with others", and Megi/Haiyan etc?

Technically, Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone in terms of wind speed since reliable record began. Typhoons listed by WeatherGuesser did have higher wind speed (for example, Nancy is a 185-kt storm), but JTWC has stated that the estimates back in the 1960s might not be reliable. For Haiyan, JTWC had it at 170 kt, but it should be noted that no recon were available, and it is based solely on satellite imagery (i.e. the Dvorak technique). For Megi, despite recon supporting 170 kt, JTWC had it at 160 kt in their best track. Storms like Haiyan may have higher intensity, but there were no solid proof. So in the official record, Patricia is no. 1.

Ah thanks...
What a monster... I cant imagine what this will do with Mexico there.

We don't have these kinda storms in Western Europe.

#715 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:33 am

Patricia should officially have Megi in it's rear view mirror sooner than later.

It has higher winds and lower pressure. Doesn't really compare anymore.

Seems like also that Patricia will not enter an ERC in time for landfall with the way it's trending.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

terrapintransit · #716 Postby **terrapintransit** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:36 am

She is pissed..

WeatherGuesser · #717 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:37 am

Would be nice to have another plane in just around landfall.

#718 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:38 am

Almost 8.0 on ADT:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 16:53:38 N Lon : 105:39:45 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 898.0mb/164.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.8 8.0 8.3

KatDaddy · #719 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:41 am

Beyond incredible and a historic day in the Atlantic and EPAC basins as CAT 5 Patricia has become the most intense hurricane on record with a pressure of 880MB or 25.99" surpassing Wilma's 2005 882MB. Air Force Recon has found winds of 200G230 MPH. Additional intense RI to continue until landfall with a forecast of max winds of 210G235 MPH. Prayers to those in the path of this extreme hurricane.

...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY…

#720 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:46 am

Just waking up after about only 3 hours sleep after being up to witness the historic night of watching the data come in from RECON which confirmed Patricia as the strongest tropical cyclone EVER to occur in the Western Hemisphere. It was the most memorable weather event I have ever had the pleasure of experiencing as it happened in my over 30 years of observing weather. Period! Just an amazing night!!!

I still can not believe what Patricia was able to accomplish. It is mind blowing what this monster cyclone did last night. I am still.utterly speechless about this storm. No doubt Patricia is now the gold standard bearer for which all tropical cyclones will be measured up against now in our Western Hemisphere.

All I can just simply say is WOW!!!! I agree with the others who pointed out that it is well within reason that Patricia probably dropped into the 870(s) mb range after Recon left because she was still.intensifying when Recon departed. The post analysis of this historic tropical cyclone imo will be the most fascinating ever done by NHC!!!

880 mb 200 mph, with gusts to 230 mph!!! Just surreal! Is this a dream or something.. Just WOW!!!

EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Re:

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Re:

Re:

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Re:

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Re: Re:

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

Who is online