ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Hammy]

00z NAM just because ... cant be any worse than the global models at this point this year lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72800&fh=0

May as well throw it on the pile

It seems the models showing weakening and the ones showing strengthening are all digging in and trending harder towards their respective solutions at this point.

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS coming in just a smidge West of the 18z run through 108 hours.

[chaser1]

00z NAM just because ... cant be any worse than the global models at this point this year lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72800&fh=0

May as well throw it on the pile

OMG, I'm hugging the NAM?! Aric, say it ain't so LOL?!

It seems the models showing weakening and the ones showing strengthening are all digging in and trending harder towards their respective solutions at this point.

[Cpv17]

Ok now the 0z ICON run was weird! A piece of energy breaks off 92L and starts forming in the west Caribbean.

[sma10]

Ukmet very similar to GFS, though a bit more SW. Strange that both models keep the system very weak throughout, but doesn't dissipate it

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS brings it to a crawl in the NW Bahamas between hour 126 and 150. Looks like the steering falls apart. Where have we seen that before?


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[SouthFLTropics]

Sitting right over Grand Bahama Island at hour 156. Not a location I want to see a vigorous vort on a 6 day map.


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[SFLcane]

GFS brings it to a crawl in the NW Bahamas between hour 126 and 150. Looks like the steering falls apart. Where have we seen that before?


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Just looks hostile on the GFS.. Getting blasted by dry air. Look at RH

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

yeah, but we are still too far out to see how the storm and its structure will manage any dry air challenge.

[sma10]

It's just amazing to me, I'm not saying the models are wrong ... but when is there ever a dry air problem over the Bahamas in August?

[Hurricaneman]

There’s some slight vorticity at 180hrs on the 0zGFS while at hr 186 at 18z had dissipated the system, I hope it’s not slowly correcting to a less dry atmosphere somewhat like what happened with the models with Dorian last year and the models end up somewhat correct intensity wise so trends are not really heading for dissipation but have changed my mind to a more bearish forecast

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

[NotSparta]

Although GFS is a little stronger, condition are not favorable in the Bahamas. Can see the shear on RH, which also helps advect the dry air into the circulation, pretty much killing it

[NotSparta]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

Because dry air is not unusual for July

[SoupBone]

It's just amazing to me, I'm not saying the models are wrong ... but when is there ever a dry air problem over the Bahamas in August?

It's still late July, and SAL is still dominant during this time of the year. SAL impacting this system would be of no surprise at all.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

I don’t know? Honestly there seems to a lot more dry air around than normal this season so far. Kind of reminds me of 2013 in a way.

[SoupBone]

Looks like very slowly the models are playing catch-up and this will probably be stronger in or near the Bahamas than modeled as once again it looks like shear isn’t that bad

But dry air is a HUGE problem.

I don't get it though. If dry air is such a huge problem this season, why is there forecast to be so many storms?

Man you've posted here since 2005, SAL is always a factor this time of the year, subsiding right before peak season begins in mid-August.

[Hd444]

Cmc stronger.