ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

Don’t know if I can put a finger on it but in this last hour I realize we have 24 hours to landfall and anything can happen and uncertainty is overwhelming me as Nicole enters the Gulfstream.

[jconsor]

There is the potential for historic storm surge flooding in NE FL and coastal GA:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1590076493140725760




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1590084071631204353

[aspen]

AF306 has been sitting on the runaway for nearly an hour according to Tropical Tidbits. It’s the same plane that never took off this morning, and I’m guessing it’s been grounded by technical issues AGAIN. Are there seriously no other working low-level planes they can send out instead of this one?

It feels like this year has had even more recon issues than 2020 or 2021, despite the lack of anything like Eta. So many flights have had comms issues or flight-stopping technical errors.

[SFLcane]

Track shifted south....

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

What is that... like 30-45 miles south?

[SFLcane]

What is that... like 30-45 miles south?

Pretty close to me now.

[fci]

Track shifted south....

How close can it get still has the closest point 45 miles North-Northeast of us in Lake Worth at 4 AM Thursday.
That would put us, and Southern Palm Beach County on the weak side.
But it was 75 miles earlier........
It really would have to be a landfall south of us to give us the stronger impact.

[jlauderdal]

Track shifted south....

That cone certainly looks closer to me, I haven't dived into the specifics but its a decent move south. Winds are on the increase here, breezy but its constant. Zero preps in my area other than people at the store buying liquor and junk food. Always funny to see what products have no chance at the store, the last ones on the shelves with the weird flavors that even a desperate hurricane prepper wont eat.

[cane5]

I think we can see a slight sw dip occurring the question now is how deep can that go one little jog changes the dynamic and what or what does not pull that up fast enough to maybe influence the next advisory at 7pm lots of tricky outcomes have come in these very warm waters nearly off the coast of Sfl.

[Kat5]

Still not buying that expected wsw movement. Looks like either due west or WNW to landfall.

[LandoWill]

Tropical storm-force winds extend out so far, it will affect the whole state

[cycloneye]

[CronkPSU]

surprised they haven't really changed the intensity forecast based on it being stronger than expected already

[sponger]

There is the potential for historic storm surge flooding in NE FL and coastal GA:

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1590076493140725760

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1590084071631204353

Oh my!!!!

[cane5]

Still not buying that expected wsw movement. Looks like either due west or WNW to landfall.

I could be wrong but I think I just saw it start on the latest satellite loop ?

[Nuno]

Tropical storm-force winds extend out so far, it will affect the whole state

So why am I not under a TS Warning yet and just a watch? Especially strange how so many commute from Broward to Dade and vice versa. This may have to change if the high pressure pushes it south enough before the W to WNW movement in the Bahamas. Also if this storm develops nicely enough it'll continue to get symmetrical, this is just going to be a big system.

[Poonwalker]

Depending on how strong this gets another shift left would put Tampa and the east gulf coast in play

[cycloneye]

AF306 has been sitting on the runaway for nearly an hour according to Tropical Tidbits. It’s the same plane that never took off this morning, and I’m guessing it’s been grounded by technical issues AGAIN. Are there seriously no other working low-level planes they can send out instead of this one?

It feels like this year has had even more recon issues than 2020 or 2021, despite the lack of anything like Eta. So many flights have had comms issues or flight-stopping technical errors.

AF plane is on route so now have 2 planes.

[wxman57]

No chance to read any posts since Sunday. I have a couple of observations. First, I could find a record of only one other November hurricane strike in Florida. That was in 1935. It made landfall in Miami then dissipated in the eastern Gulf.

Second observation is the amount of cool, dry air flowing southward along the east coast. Dew point in the mid 30s along the SC coast, lower 40s offshore Georgia, and now down to 53 in Jacksonville. Nicole may peak in the next 24 hours and begin ingesting this dry air prior to landfall, leading to weakening. This is the reason models indicate so little rain over Florida. Bad news if you were planning to go to Disney World Thursday. Disney is closing some parts now, but I expect a full closure coming for Thursday. They may get low-end TS winds with gusts in the 60s Thursday.