ATL: BERYL - Models

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

isnt this a model thread? Shouldnt normal chit chat be in the discussion thread?

Uhh..they are discusing models bro

[IcyTundra]

18Z Euro


18Z Euro Ensemble

[Wampadawg]

[quote="IcyTundra"]18Z Euro
https://i.ibb.co/cXmC1XC/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-90.gif

18Z Euro Ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/fnyhdBC/AL02-2024070318-ECENS.png[

[Stratton23]

ICON cat 4 into galveston, its just refusing to give up on its solution

[ConvergenceZone]

ICON cat 4 into galveston, its just refusing to give up on its solution

I'm actually quite shocked that the NHC isn't strengthening Beryl more in the Gulf, but maybe it's because all of the reliable models aren't strengthening it much. That's the only reason I can think of, unless it has to do with the size of the storm making it very difficult for it to strengthen much quicker once in the Gulf.

[IcyTundra]

0Z ICON will it ever cave to the other models? Missing some frames right now.

[jaguars_22]

Man the icon is slowing her down even more!! That’s why she gets stronger!!! I don’t see beryl being that strong entering the gulf at all!!

[IcyTundra]

Man the icon is slowing her down even more!! That’s why she gets stronger!!! I don’t see beryl being that strong entering the gulf at all!!

It is an outlier for sure. I think it will cave at somepoint tomorrow and start showing a landfall in NE Mexico or S Texas as a cat 1.

[sphelps8681]

0Z ICON will it ever cave to the other models? Missing some frames right now.
https://i.ibb.co/BG9070D/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-132.gif

I actual wish these models would come together no matter where it goes. Based on that run goes right over my area. I am ready. Generator, groceries and everything else. This is getting crazy. UGH.

[Stratton23]

jaguars_22 the icon enters into the gulf as a TS, that’s probably whYs going to happen, as for the rapid deepining, their is actually ensemble support for it to regain a lot of its strength, something to watch out for, given how global models have absolutely underestimated the intensity of beryl for the last 4-5 days

[ConvergenceZone]

Man the icon is slowing her down even more!! That’s why she gets stronger!!! I don’t see beryl being that strong entering the gulf at all!!

I 100% agree with you. The Icon is trash. I knew not to pay attention to it when on when it shows Beryl losing zero strength on land and even emerging into the gulf stronger than before it crossed land. That NEVER happens. I just had to roll my eyes at that one. lol. You would think the data that feeds the model would know that.

[Stratton23]

GFS and CMC are far too weak, i expect corrections toward a stronger system in future runs

[ROCK]

0Z CMC buries it into N Mex...like was pointed out it was super weak coming off the Yuc as it bite off a big chunk....in the GOM given how weak its being steered by the the lower levels into MX....never feels the trof...

[EasyTiger]

Not sure the exact landfall is going to make a difference. Past two GFS runs show this thing may stick around for a while in TX and generate a significant amount of rain.

[Stratton23]

Need GFS AND CMC to come in stronger , other wise we wont get any rain, and we definitely need the rain

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: still NE MX

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS


0Z CMC

[IcyTundra]

0Z Euro is a lot stronger makes landfall in Northern Mexico as 976 MB hurricane

[Stratton23]

One of the more reliable hurricane models for tracks, the HMON, has shifted north into brownsville

[AerospaceEng]

06z ICON has it near Houston for the 6th run in a row. Insane consistency. If it does verify, will be an epic coup.