99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

And I remember SHIPS predicting Katrina strengthening from the 150kts to 158kts. That wouldn't have been good, and I'm glad that it got that one wrong.

[fci]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Based on that, we'll have a T.D. as soon as Recon sends back a VDM tommorow. Here we go again.

Ships forecasting this to get to 91 kts certainly has my attention.

Doesnt the SHIPS always raise intensity too high?

<RICKY>

SHIPS has been high on many a invest this year but in past years it has been accurate to be sure. Also, it did predict near major hurricane status for Both Katrina and Rita and turned out to be more than right.

It's more the GFDL though that tends to make everything a category 5 680 MB cane.

Back to the SHIPS model though. It is based off the GFS and what I extrapolate from that is that the environmental conditions will unfortunately be very good for the storm.

As an aside, it's hillarious. The day before Katrina hit ABC News had a story saying "A new experimental model called SHIPS predicts that this storm could rapidly intensify" Of course, it is neither new nor experimental. LOL.

I don't think there were many, if any Invests that SHIPS did not take to Hurricane status in 5 days so far this season!

Wow, 35 pages on an Invest!
UNBELIEVABLE!!

[wzrgirl1]

what does VDM stand for?

[JTD]

what does VDM stand for?

Vortex data message. It's what the recon plane sends back after the end of a center pass around the storm. It has the minimum central pressure, the max flight level winds, the coordinates, etc.

The earlier observations from Recon could also tell us if we have a t.d. or not as well though.

[Swimdude]

Ahhh, here we go again.

[wxman57]

I don't think we'll see a TD tomorrow, it's too early. The wave had been interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest today, thus the increased convection. But the upper low is moving on out, and convection is decreasing. I think maybe by Thursday and probably by Friday there should be an LLC going.

[cinlfla]

I don't think we'll see a TD tomorrow, it's too early. The wave had been interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest today, thus the increased convection. But the upper low is moving on out, and convection is decreasing. I think maybe by Thursday and probably by Friday there should be an LLC going.

Thank You for coming in and explaining, but in your opinion do you think this wave will develope into something and if so what is the steering going to be like up the road?

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.4 76.7 290./13.0
6 14.1 77.9 258./12.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[wxman57]

I don't think we'll see a TD tomorrow, it's too early. The wave had been interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest today, thus the increased convection. But the upper low is moving on out, and convection is decreasing. I think maybe by Thursday and probably by Friday there should be an LLC going.

Thank You for coming in and explaining, but in your opinion do you think this wave will develope into something and if so what is the steering going to be like up the road?

I think that this wave has a good chance of developing into a TS, and likely a hurricane, across the southern Gulf this weekend. Normally, any tropical wave moving into the NW Caribbean this time of year with a favorable upper-level environment would have a pretty good shot at developing. However, there's a fairly strong MJO event in progress, and a Madden-Julian Oscillation can significantly enhance development chances in the NW Caribbean and GoM. To add to that, decreased easterly tradewinds in the western Caribbean should also contribute to increased low-level convergence.

Bottom line - watch for TS/Hurricane development southern Gulf Fri/Sat. Steering currents in place similar to that of Rita and Katrina - high center to the north, slow west movement. Question is - where does the storm turn north? How far west will the ridge extend? It's pretty late in the season for a high to be strong enough (and stationary enough) to drive a storm west into Mexico.

[TXGale]

*sigh*

No rest for the weary.

Thanks for your analysis Wx57. ALso want to let you know that I trust and enjoy your posts. I pray this thing just goes away.

[Brent]

Bottom line - watch for TS/Hurricane development southern Gulf Fri/Sat. Steering currents in place similar to that of Rita and Katrina - high center to the north, slow west movement. Question is - where does the storm turn north? How far west will the ridge extend? It's pretty late in the season for a high to be strong enough (and stationary enough) to drive a storm west into Mexico.

Joy.

Looks like I better rest now...

[DAVE440]

I know everyones hyped up after Katrina and Rita....

but....

36 PAGES IN 2 DAYS? FOR A CARRIBEAN LOW? WOW!!

[cajungal]

Thanks for your thoughts on this. It was very interesting. If this develops and becomes Stan, I won't be able to get the saying Stan the man out of my head. Stan the man sounds so silly. Everytime I think of Stan the man, I think of Dorothy's bald ex-husband on the Golden Girls. Sorry, going off topic.

[cinlfla]

Thank You wxman57, I appriceate your post, it's very easy to understand

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes thank you wxman57 for the analysis

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think we'll see a TD tomorrow, it's too early. The wave had been interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest today, thus the increased convection. But the upper low is moving on out, and convection is decreasing. I think maybe by Thursday and probably by Friday there should be an LLC going.

Thank You for coming in and explaining, but in your opinion do you think this wave will develope into something and if so what is the steering going to be like up the road?

I think that this wave has a good chance of developing into a TS, and likely a hurricane, across the southern Gulf this weekend. Normally, any tropical wave moving into the NW Caribbean this time of year with a favorable upper-level environment would have a pretty good shot at developing. However, there's a fairly strong MJO event in progress, and a Madden-Julian Oscillation can significantly enhance development chances in the NW Caribbean and GoM. To add to that, decreased easterly tradewinds in the western Caribbean should also contribute to increased low-level convergence.

Bottom line - watch for TS/Hurricane development southern Gulf Fri/Sat. Steering currents in place similar to that of Rita and Katrina - high center to the north, slow west movement. Question is - where does the storm turn north? How far west will the ridge extend? It's pretty late in the season for a high to be strong enough (and stationary enough) to drive a storm west into Mexico.

Great insight as usual 57...

Looks like the latest TWD is fairly favorable on this...

Just quick question.

When there is a "special feature" mentioned, is this a conformation of impending development?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where is its center currently located degrees N and W?

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I was out of pocket today for a few hours, checked the satellite and visible and the low looked paltry to me. Now I read Wxman57's analysis (whom I trust) and sounds like we might have "game on" for this weekend. Yikes!

[Portastorm]

Can someone tell me why it looks like the Caribbean low is moving north?

[Stratosphere747]

Can someone tell me why it looks like the Caribbean low is moving north?

UL to the north.