Caribbean - Central America Weather

[HUC]

MDR begin to alive;but...but...this year :sal+ shear+sst a little above normal +trades stronger than normal since april (here in Guadeloupe ,at least )= a lot of figth for our systems. So,w... and s...

[Gustywind]

OK Luis,i will post on this trend with my weather obs;but,i think that we could chat on the other forum,as theses systems are still far away; or my english is limited,nd i don't understand what you mean...Gusty can translate for me.

Good to see you at our thread owned by us who live in the Eastern Caribbean.This thread is for all of us to post observations,forecasts and more.We also can be at Talking Tropics forum to make comments about the tropics in general but this tent that we have is exclusive for our area.

Folks Luis, seems that we're 4 right now (Cycloneye, HUC, Gustywind, Mseebe ) so YES WE CAN

[Gustywind]

MDR begin to alive;but...but...this year :sal+ shear+sst a little above normal +trades stronger than normal since april (here in Guadeloupe ,at least )= a lot of figth for our systems. So,w... and s...

Hurdles hurdles for them HUC, you're right but who knows always some mystery on these systems

[abajan]

Since Barbados is the most easterly in the archipelago, we'll likely be the first to experience weather conditions associated with the waves presently to our east. So I'll try to keep you updated on what's happening as often as possible.

[Gustywind]

Since Barbados is the most easterly in the archipelago, we'll likely be the first to experience weather conditions associated with the waves presently to our east. So I'll try to keep you updated on what's happening as often as possible.

Absolutely you're at the extreme east of the islands. Yep, that's a good news to hear you Abajan! How are you in this beautiful island?

[Gustywind]

Don't forget all carib islanders to keep up informed in case of... tkanks

[cycloneye]

Since Barbados is the most easterly in the archipelago, we'll likely be the first to experience weather conditions associated with the waves presently to our east. So I'll try to keep you updated on what's happening as often as possible.

Good to see you in our tent.Lets see what happens with this train of waves in the next few days.But for sure we will see some bad weather ahead.

[expat2carib]

Watching here on the island of Dominica. I'll keep you updated.

[cycloneye]

Watching here on the island of Dominica. I'll keep you updated.

Great to see you my friend from Dominica.We will be waiting for your observations from there.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170118
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
918 PM AST THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TUTT REFLECTION WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT STABLE SAHARAN AIR TO
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
FAIR AND SLIGHTLY HAZY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...PRESENTLY NEAR 50
WEST...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning fellow Caribbean members.Some scattered showers moved thru in the overnight hours here.The sun trys to come out but some clouds obscures it.A ENE breeze is kicking in.

Getting closer and closer the first wave that will throw to us bad weather starting tommorow.And lets not forget the 2nd wave that is more organized in the Eastern Atlantic.

2 TJSJ 170845
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI JUL 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT REFLECTION...PASSING MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING THE
NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY DRIER...STABLE AND SLIGHTLY HAZY AIR WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO ONLY THE TYPICAL
SUMMER DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST OPTICAL
DEPTH CHARTS FROM NAAPS INDICATED THAT THE SAHARAN DUST (SAL) WILL
RELAX A BIT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
INCREASING THE DENSITY AGAIN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BRINGING
SIGNIFICANTLY HAZY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL BRING FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MAINLY BTWN 025-040 KFT...AND ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
VCSH AROUND TJBQ...TJSJ...TJNR...TISX AND TIST AT LEAST UNTIL
17/13Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL
FLYING AREA AND TAF SITES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT
THIS TIME. ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS BTWN 18Z-22Z...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...PRODUCING
MARGINALLY UNSAFE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS.
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT. AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

[FireBird]

Hi folks, thanks for this special thread. I'd be happy to add my observations here from Trinidad.
I must say that we usually miss out on any tropical development this far South. Most of our action occurs from clashes between waves and the ITCZ, with serious flooding...

[abajan]

Hi folks, thanks for this special thread. I'd be happy to add my observations here from Trinidad.
I must say that we usually miss out on any tropical development this far South. Most of our action occurs from clashes between waves and the ITCZ, with serious flooding...

Good to hear from you Trini! (P.S. De flyin' fish finally come back to Barbados )

[FireBird]

Hi abajan, nice to hear from you again my friend! I'm glad about the flying fish! I always figured there's enough to go around.
Can't say the same sharing principle applies with TCs. It seems only a few of our lovely isles get the brunt of the season. I'm pretty sure some of my Caribbean brothers and sisters would like to take a break this year. But hey, it might be my turn this round - who knows??
And if not, I'd be happy to come visit during the storms to share some sunshine...

[cycloneye]

There is a invest tagged for the wave in the Eastern Atlantic.That means we have to watch the progress of the wave.

[msbee]

Weather Forecast for the SSS Islands valid until Saturday midday 12:00 hours, July 18, 2009.
Last updated: Friday July 17, 2009 11:00 A.S.T. (15:00 UTC).

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS TODAY.

Weather:
Today: Variably cloudy with a few local showers through the early afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a chance of a local shower nearing daybreak.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Becomes temporarily mostly cloudy into the night with scattered showers and local thunderstorms possible.

Forecast high will be 31°C, 88 °F and low 26° C, 79 °F.
Sunrise occurs at 05:45 A.M. and Sunset at 18:51 P.M .

Winds:
Today and Saturday: Easterly, 10 to 16 miles per hour with a few occasional gusts to 22 miles per hour.

Synopsis:
The Atlantic surface high pressure extends through the North of the Caribbean and sustains a moderate to occasionally fresh wind across the area. Hence, boaters should continue to exercise caution over the exposed waters. Furthermore, and increase in winds and seas are expected by early Sunday, after the passage of the next tropical wave. Presently, the tropical wave moves West towards the Eastern Caribbean and will likely bring additional moisture increase with periodical significant shower activity over the islands and surroundings. by late Saturday and onto parts of Sunday.

Sea Conditions:
Mainly moderate with waves 3 to 6 feet with the highest wave action over the Eastern exposed waters.

Tropical weather: None.

Special Features: None.

Outlook until Sunday midday: Generally partly cloudy and showers may linger into the afternoon.

Forecaster: Coffie.

The next weather forecast will be issued on Friday at 16:00 AST (20:00 UTC).

[FireBird]

While 97L is getting attention now (as the first hint to track in many weeks), I think that the wave around 53W is firing up some convection that may be a bother over the weekend for folks in the Leewards, should it continue West.
As for 97L - that thing just looks a mess at the moment.

[Gustywind]

While 97L is getting attention now (as the first hint to track in many weeks), I think that the wave around 53W is firing up some convection that may be a bother over the weekend for folks in the Leewards, should it continue West.
As for 97L - that thing just looks a mess at the moment.

Hi my friend, how are you? Glad to see you here Firebird after one year! You're right concerning the twave at 53w convection has popped slightly but surely... and given Meteo-France Saturday and Sunday should be wet and moist. Here is a sat pic east of Guadeloupe by our pro mets of Meteo-France at 2PM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
More convection in spite of the lack of organization...showers and tstorms are highly possible during the next 24H in our area...but tkanks to the dry air
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE
COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL
SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDS THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION LIMITED TO WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-17N.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 PM AST FRI JUL 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND DRIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS
REMAINED WIDELY SCATTERED OVER LAND IN GENERAL. WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EAST WINDS
AND ISOLATED PATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES. FOR SATURDAY MORNING DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SINCE SUBSIDENCE/NVA AHEAD OF
MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEST SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY. PUERTO RICO SHOULD ALSO SEE ITS
FAIR SHARE OF WEATHER AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE WAVE TAIL AND ITS RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND STRONGER
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 36 WEST ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. A LARGE TAIL OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SET BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE WAVE.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France don't waste any time with this wave approaching the Leewards...as they issued an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms this weekend http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
I will keep you informed tonight...