Iran Nuclear Standoff

[Cryomaniac]

Good news here. Russian support up until now has played a huge role in allowing Iran to thump it's nose at the world.

Exactly. My opinion on what needs to happen now, is that Iran needs to be given one definite deadline to stop all nuclear activity, say June 30th, and if they don't, well, you know what I think should happen then.

[Brent]

Good news here. Russian support up until now has played a huge role in allowing Iran to thump it's nose at the world.

Exactly. My opinion on what needs to happen now, is that Iran needs to be given one definite deadline to stop all nuclear activity, say June 31st, and if they don't, well, you know what I think should happen then.

You'll be waiting forever for that date.

[Category 5]

Good news here. Russian support up until now has played a huge role in allowing Iran to thump it's nose at the world.

Exactly. My opinion on what needs to happen now, is that Iran needs to be given one definite deadline to stop all nuclear activity, say June 31st, and if they don't, well, you know what I think should happen then.

They'll agree to THAT deadline.

[Meso]

haha @ June 31st...

-edited to avoid another debate-

[Cryomaniac]

haha @ June 31st...

-edited to avoid another debate-

Ok, I'm an idiot *edits that post*.

[HURAKAN]

Iran's bomb: The clock is ticking

May 17, 2008
Gordon Barthos

So, what was U.S. President George Bush's main message when he showed up in Jerusalem this week to celebrate Israel's 60th anniversary?

Mazel Tov, dudes, on making the desert bloom? Not even close.

Washington will "stand with Israel against the existential threat of a nuclear weapon with Iran," he said.

It wasn't the cheeriest "Happy Birthday, bud." Or the most grammatical. But Israelis got the point.

Over in Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not. "The Zionist regime is on the verge of dying," and its "stinking corpse" soon will be buried, he predicted.

And Tehran again rebuffed demands by the United Nations that it stop enriching uranium.

Ahmadinejad calculates that Bush is on the way out, Barack Obama and a gentler diplomacy are on the way in, and all Iran has to do is play for time and squirrel away the 20 kilos of enriched U-235 it needs to build its bomb.

Maybe. But Israel has attacked Iraqi and Syrian reactors. And Bush told the Knesset that letting Iran get the bomb would be "an unforgiveable betrayal of future generations." He also managed to suggest Obama is an appeaser on Iran. So the Washington clock may be ticking. Even Obama regards Iran as hostile to the U.S., a sponsor of terror, and a meddler in Iraq.

For years, the U.S. military has been "gaming" a strike at Iran's Bushehr, Natanz and other nuclear facilities. If Israel needs help, Bush could be the president to oblige.

And this might be no "surgical" strike at a reactor or two. The U.S. might target Iran's military command, communications, missile launchers, aircraft and airfields, to blunt any counter-strike at Israel.

The Iranians would rearm, of course, but they'd be set back years. Ahmadinejad is playing the fool, defying the UN, allowing Iran to become a U.S. campaign issue and racing to get a bomb.

Tehran would be smarter to spike Bush's guns by heeding the UN, and swapping its nuclear program for security guarantees and fuel for civilian reactors. Before something goes terribly wrong.

Gord Barthos writes editorials on foreign affairs. gbarthos@thestar.ca This column resumes in the fall.

[x-y-no]

We're in an absolutely awful strategic position and Iran knows it. I'm afraid there won't be any backing down on their part.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have wondered if Israel will launch what limited attack it can, using the limited number F-15Is and F-16Is that have (barely) the range to fly the round trip to Iran and back without having to refuel over Arab territory, and count on an Iranian over-reaction (chemical weapons on missiles into Israel or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, maybe, or an attack on tanker traffic in the Gulf) to force the US to act.

[Cryomaniac]

I have wondered if Israel will launch what limited attack it can, using the limited number F-15Is and F-16Is that have (barely) the range to fly the round trip to Iran and back without having to refuel over Arab territory, and count on an Iranian over-reaction (chemical weapons on missiles into Israel or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, maybe, or an attack on tanker traffic in the Gulf) to force the US to act.

That's kind of my thought too.

[coriolis]

We're in an absolutely awful strategic position and Iran knows it. I'm afraid there won't be any backing down on their part.

If we are trying to avoid a shooting war at all costs, Iran holds an advantage. If we are willing to take a hit or if we do take a hit, we could destroy Iran many times over. I like our position better.

As it stands, they won't back down because they know we might.

Historically speaking, if we are not willing to fight when we need to, we're finished before a single bomb is dropped.

[Cryomaniac]

If we are trying to avoid a shooting war at all costs, Iran holds an advantage. If we are willing to take a hit or if we do take a hit, we could destroy Iran many times over. I like our position better.

As it stands, they won't back down because they know we might.

Historically speaking, if we are not willing to fight when we need to, we're finished before a single bomb is dropped.

Exactly. Trying to avoid a shooting war at all costs is a massive mistake.

[vbhoutex]

I am certainly no expert on Israel's, "military might", but I think some grossly underestimate their capabilites. That is part of what concerns me about this situation. I feel they can be provoked by Iran into striking them which would automatically pull the US in, which I don't want. However, Iran as a nuclear power is even scarier. I believe what we all have is a Catch 22 and you can be sure Iran will play it to the hilt. I do believe though that in the end they will be shown to be the fool in this "game"(it certainly isn't a game!!!). Zealots with weapons of any kind is bad IMO.

[cycloneye]

I am certainly no expert on Israel's, "military might", but I think some grossly underestimate their capabilites. That is part of what concerns me about this situation. I feel they can be provoked by Iran into striking them which would automatically pull the US in, which I don't want. However, Iran as a nuclear power is even scarier. I believe what we all have is a Catch 22 and you can be sure Iran will play it to the hilt. I do believe though that in the end they will be shown to be the fool in this "game"(it certainly isn't a game!!!). Zealots with weapons of any kind is bad IMO.

I Agree David 100% with your statement.Under any circunstances Iran cant have a Nuclear Bomb.But the question is how can the U.S can deal with this lunatic Iran has to avoid another war.

[HURAKAN]

If Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon, they will probably build it if nothing forceful is done. They have already demonstrated again and again that they don't care about sanctions, they laugh at them. Nonetheless, America cannot be involved in another war, especially of this dimension.

[feederband]

If Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon, they will probably build it if nothing forceful is done. They have already demonstrated again and again that they don't care about sanctions, they laugh at them. Nonetheless, America cannot be involved in another war, especially of this dimension.

We are already fighting them in Iraq....At least their weapons anyway...

[cycloneye]

If Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon, they will probably build it if nothing forceful is done. They have already demonstrated again and again that they don't care about sanctions, they laugh at them. Nonetheless, America cannot be involved in another war, especially of this dimension.

Imagine if the U.S gets drawn into another war with the the military being stressed right now with two war theaters.

[Hello32020]

If Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon, they will probably build it if nothing forceful is done. They have already demonstrated again and again that they don't care about sanctions, they laugh at them. Nonetheless, America cannot be involved in another war, especially of this dimension.

Imagine if the U.S gets drawn into another war with the the military being stressed right now with two war theaters.

Air Force bombers, aircraft carrier jets, and special forces could probably get a great majority of the job done at destroying their nuclear facilities, we wouldn't have to invade. Though we definitely would have to prepare for Iranian military/Miltia/Terrorist response in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the U.S.

[coriolis]

But is Iran willing to commit suicide as a nation? It's one thing to convince unemployed, unmarried, desperate individuals to become martyrs, but it would surprise me if the leaders who are probably enjoying their power and position would do the same.

Now that I'm thinking about it, I doubt that they would take the "in-your-face" approach, but rather would work through proxies, like the ex-soviet union did. They could slip the N-weapon to some terror organization who has lots of wanna-be martyrs would do their dirty work for them.

If that happened, they could deny responsibility and continue their game.

[Cryomaniac]

You can only deny responsibility for so long. cf. Afghanistan, late '01.

I don't really want to post what I think Iran's best course of action is on a public forum, especially one based in the US, but there are ways they could provoke the US into action pretty easily.

[Derek Ortt]

If Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon, they will probably build it if nothing forceful is done. They have already demonstrated again and again that they don't care about sanctions, they laugh at them. Nonetheless, America cannot be involved in another war, especially of this dimension.

yes we can and we can win it in less than 2 weeks without even using our WMDs. You are severely underestimating our capabilities. We can just line up our B-52s if necessary and level each and every Iranian city, kill millions, and make it impossible for them to continue for lack of an idustry after the bombing. Iran almost certainly would surrender quickly, as did Serbia (and we killed far far less then, we only killed thousands of Serbian civilians and they still quickly waived the white flag).

That is unless we repeat the mistakes of Iraq and try and fight a bloodless war