Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

NY, CT, MA deal with another type of storm snow not hurricanes.

Wrong........ We get snow hurricanes nor' easters.. we get almost everything up here.... You shouldn't judge a place if you haven't lived there your whole life.......

[Three Blind Mice]

Sure appears to be heading NW now.

[The Dark Knight]

Interesting.....

[mf_dolphin]

The track forecast is shifted to the right again. Landfall is now in Pinellas County!

[Anonymous]

Here is a good graphic of Donna's track.
http://web.naplesnews.com/03/10/graphic ... ap-big.JPG

She was always N of Cuba, but Charley could still follow a similar path.

[Derek Ortt]

It may very well stay just inland. This is not likely to be a significant threat for the EC. This is a Florida WC storm

[corpusbreeze]

You feel Charley is coming to TX Corpus?

No no not at all. I clicked on the wrong quote. Sorry. No I feel like Florida is going to get hit hard. Sorry about that too.

[Three Blind Mice]

Hazel or Donna? That is what was just discussed on Talkin Tropics. IF, big if. Charley jumps on trough and runs like those historical storms did.

[Guest]

BUT Donna made landfall THRU the fl straits as a 925 MB cane then into Tampa at 935 MB.... Donna did NOT cross CUBA....

I don't know how far up the coast Charley could be a threat, but I think Charley should be considered a possible threat all the way up the coast -- especially if he becomes a major cane. Just read what Donna did in the NE in 1960.... The speed of Charley is obviously the key here.

After passing into the Atlantic off the Virginia capes, Donna paralleled the mid-Atlantic states and sped toward New England. The western edge of its eye brushed the coast from Virginia to New York, with many coastal areas reporting periods of intermittent calm. At Ocean City, Maryland, where winds of 83 mph were recorded before the anemometer was disabled, it was described as the worst storm in the city's history. The eye apparently was further enlarged to almost 100 miles in width as it approached the New York coast. High winds and record tides pushed onto the waterfront at Atlantic City, New Jersey, and the Battery in New York City. Finally, the indomitable hurricane made landfall again on Long Island at about 2:00 p.m. on September 12. Several stations on Long Island reported sustained winds over 100 mph, and gusts of 125-30 mph were recorded at the eastern end of the island. It then passed into eastern Connecticut, through southeastern New Hampshire, and diagonally across Maine. As it tracked over New England, cooler air was entrained in the storm's circulation, and it began to weaken. By the time it raced into Newfoundland and over the Davis Strait, the once mighty storm was reduced to a broad frontal low.

http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurrica ... donna.html

[tomboudreau]

If New England doesn't get hurricanes...then Gloria, Bob, Carol, Diane, 1938, and so many other never happened?

[corpusbreeze]

If New England doesn't get hurricanes...then Gloria, Bob, Carol, Diane, 1938, and so many other never happened?

They get Hurricanes , but not Charley. Charley will rake Florida, maybe Georgia a little, then out to fish land.

[Colin]

If New England doesn't get hurricanes...then Gloria, Bob, Carol, Diane, 1938, and so many other never happened?

They get Hurricanes , but not Charley. Charley will rake Florida, maybe Georgia a little, then out to fish land.

Take a look at some models.

[Typhoon_Willie]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110245
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

BACK NEAR 20Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT
CENTER WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 72 KT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. SINCE THEN...A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED OVER OR JUST EAST TO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 55 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

CHARLEY IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM A CYCLONE WEST OF
THE STORM IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTLOW AT THIS
TIME. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON OTHER THAN
HITTING LAND THAT CHARLEY SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL AND
SHIPS BOTH CALL FOR 95-100 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH JUST
YET...BUT WILL CALL FOR CHARLEY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
OVER THE GULF. AFTER RECURVATURE...PASSAGE OVER LAND AND THE START
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.0N 72.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.1N 75.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.8N 78.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 20.7N 81.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.9N 82.3W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 82.0W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z 37.5N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[HURAKAN]

Last night Charley was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph, 24 hours later it's a near-hurricane tropical storm with winds of 65 mph. 30 mph in 24 hours, if this trend continues then tomorrow at this time we would be talking about a hurricane of 90 - 100 mph.

[hightide]

Hi Guys, have lurked for years, don't post too often but wanted to touch base with everyone in Southwest Florida. Live in Palmira out Bonita Beach Road, and work on J&C off of Airport. The next few days should be interesting!

[Aquawind]

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.


Ugh..Couples runs and just getting tighter..looks like NHC has a good handle on this for the most part..as do the models...Home Depot is gonna be packed throughout florida tomorrow!!!

[Trader Ron]

Welcome hightide.

[Aquawind]

Welcome hightide! I was just out there Friday..

Sounds real close HQ..Yes my house is very well built for Florida standards..Lotsa Big sheets of glass though..

[Guest]

The overlla 0z0 WED track is further west .... trhe forward speed may be foircing a wider turn...

The TUESDAY midday GFS showed this -- over or near MIAMI



The 18z GFS from Tuesday evening shifted west


NEW 0Z WED GFS shows the wider turn and direct hit tampa bay

[Aquawind]

Now for that elusive intensity forecast..Do you see a Major DT?