ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

Cat 5 tracking into an anti-cyclone.
Now I see the hot-pink donut.
That sick feeling when I thought this goes sub 900mb before all said and done, just came back to me.

https://i.imgur.com/D2AL092.jpg

What’s an anti-cyclone? First few results in a search mention calm weather.

I’m no pro or anything, but this is definitely not that.

In this case it's aligning with an anti-cyclonic flow in the extreme upper levels. This allows the storm to dissipate the heat and keep sinking cooling air away from the core, which allows the rising air near the core to continue at constant rates with no resistance. It's a gigantic heat exchanger, hurricanes are often called heat powered engines.

[eastcoastFL]

South of due west.. 265 ish for the last 5 plus hours..

https://i.ibb.co/wwBBgWm/Capture.png

Yah it’s easy to see on IR because Grand Bahama is angled sw and Dorian appears to be just eating the island in that direction.

[sponger]

Weakening as expected for no other reasoning than sanity.

[eastcoastFL]

Weakening as expected for no other reasoning than sanity.

That’s a good enough reason for me. Though I think it has to do with the possible ERC since recon mentioned the double wind maxima

[Craters]

Oh Ozonepete.. be nice .. you know its likely to go far enough south to scrape the northern eyewall across grand bahama.. its sucks .. but if it doe snot stop this motion it will..

Geez, Aric -- c'mon. I know that you're probably suffering from sleep deprivation like the rest of us, but really -- you have three nouns in a row without a hyphen to indicate which one is acting as an adjective.

Is it a snot-stop for female deer or is it a stop made of doe-snot?

[AutoPenalti]

South of due west.. 265 ish for the last 5 plus hours..

https://i.ibb.co/wwBBgWm/Capture.png

It’s having that hook to it, maybe WNW?

[Aric Dunn]

Oh Ozonepete.. be nice .. you know its likely to go far enough south to scrape the northern eyewall across grand bahama.. its sucks .. but if it doe snot stop this motion it will..

Geez, Aric -- c'mon. I know that you're probably suffering from sleep deprivation like the rest of us, but really -- you have three nouns in a row without a hyphen to indicate which one is acting as an adjective.

Is it a snot-stop for female deer or is it a stop made of doe-snot?

hahaha your lucky I even remember what a comma is.................. Noun ?

[sma10]

"Weakening: pressure up to 916"

Words you don't hear too often

[HDGator]

Current doppler radar out of Miami with the last three NHC track guidance.
This may be a continued 'wobble' West but it's starting to get to the level of concern:

[sponger]

Weakening as expected for no other reasoning than sanity.

That’s a good enough reason for me. Though I think it has to do with the possible ERC since recon mentioned the double wind maxima

Bad for Florida if that wind field expands.

[sponger]

Current doppler radar out of Miami with the last three NHC track guidance.
This may be a continued 'wobble' West but it's starting to get to the level of concern:

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/437928/05-23dopler_JPG-1075928.jpg

Better wobble back or Freeport is in trouble.

[SapphireSea]

It seems as if they take most Synoptics into consideration other than the strength and possibility of ridge pumping. Do they ever add that into the ensembles?

Ridge Pumping is kind of mis-worded. The outflow of the storm tends to suppress vorticity which can allow ridging to rebuild where there would be an upper low or trof. The synoptic scale forces that are going to erode the ridge would not be impacted by the outflow of Dorian. The actual fly in the ointment I think is that the trof energy may be too progressive, but if it catches it would likely mean an earlier sharper turn than forecasted. But, keep in mind it is a sensitive environment. Stalled storms are very unpredictable. The only saving grace is that in canada I can see the sharpening trough that will divert out to sea materialized and as strong or a little stronger than expected.

Thank you for the detailed explanation . Do they take this into consideration in any of the ensemble runs?

Unfortunately, I am not familiar with the calculations as they differ per model. I think the high level answer would be passively -yes-. They would take into account the flow in the storm and calculate based off that. Sometimes, this will do unusual things like having storms erode ridges faster than naturally (push them away). Show the environment as more favorable than it should, or more unfavorable than it should around it. But, the exact handling of that in the computations are unknown to me. In this case because the forces dictating the track are large scale synoptics, I would say the storm's outflow is irrelevant. The only relevant piece to it's strength is the height and vertical alignment of the low pressure column which introduces additional steering layers. (In this case 200mb to 150mb from say 750mb)

[FireRat]

if you go into the NAtl Reanalysis data, it actually shows that the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane had a larger rOCI at landfall than Dorian currently has, meaning Dorian is actually the smaller storm. It's actually not even close.

Interesting, wow! did not know that, I went by older accounts of the Labor Day hurricane's core (8-mile wide eye, I have a few older books on hurricane history and one on the Labor Day storm itself)

Dorian's core is a bit bigger, I saw earlier that he sported a 19 mile wide eye and now it's around 15 or so. Watching this storm is incredible, witnessing history in the making so soon again. 4 straight years of monsters, hope 2020 doesn't continue this frightening trend.

Back to Dorian's current antics, I also see him going basically due west still with little if any slowdown. He better start slowing down by morning for the center track to verify, I hope we don't wake to another surprise tomorrow with this trickster. At least the map with the highs and troughs for thw current moment offers some relief, one can see the weakness in between the Highs that should stall him then turn him north...I just hope that the whole 'pumping the ridge' is not a possible reality right now. FL, even South FL, can't turn its back on Dorian...heed the warnings and stay tuned to your Mets...this will be a situation that will evolve hour-by-hour, with no for sure answer 'till it's over I'm afraid. Truly a complex setup, not as straightforward as other canes because of the expected slowdown. Just my last thoughts before heading off to bed, good night everybody...gonna be a heck of a day tomorrow watching this thing.

[Aric Dunn]

Now comes the inner eye wobbles..

its going to start rotating around shortly.. so everyone is going to have to look a the over all mass.. until the outer eyewall is solid enough to track..

[Ian2401]

okay i need sleep going to bed. this thing is still going just S of due W and missing forecast points which is very concerning. hopefully this trend doesent continue. i will see all of yall tomororw morn

[MrStormX]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

[Sanibel]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1168400510212177920

[HDGator]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

[frank92171]

Where can I find a good radar view of the storm. Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk