ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Well really its just maing up for the way it sped up above what it was forecasted to do between 9-24hrs ago, at one point the NHC it was moving at close to 20kts!

[Weatherfreak000]

Model agreement doesn't exist right now, that can be for certain.


BAM's, NOGAPS and MM5 are pushing the storm west over the dangerous Loop Current, UKMET is holding on with the NHC's forecast, and GFDL concludes a strong trough to send this out to sea.


With uncertainty like this one thing is for sure, nobody needs to close their eyes and that includes both the Northern GOM and SE Florida.


The one thing that scares me, is model uncertainty.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My center placement near 21.2/80.3 moving west-northwest.

[Sanibel]

Exactly. You can almost assume a track change out of a stall like that. What it is feeling I don't know. Maybe island quirks. The convection appearing on the west side by Juventude, in contact with the ULL, is telling you it is gaining energy.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Seems to be moving west-northwestward near 300 degree's at near 6 knots. The convection has built over the LLC. It should have about 8-12 hours of water lefted to strengthen now. It is weird how this storm loves to strengthen a little before each landfall.

I would love to know how you can determine this is moving at 6 knots? Are you just guessing or do you have some insider information that you can share...

Looking at a satellite loops and making a guest more or less. I think it could be slower, maybe 3-4 knots.

[SoupBone]

Well I'll say this. She sure looks to have come to a huge stall and I don't recall any of the models picking that up. This has been one of the most fun storms I've watched in a while.

[Pearl River]

I remember 39 years ago this weekend when a storm named Camille stalled in the GOM and was then supposed to turn to the north and head into the panhandle. We all know what happened, no turn and I know technology has come a very long way since then. No, I am not saying Fay is going to be another Camille, nor am I saying she is headed to LA/MS. I'm just saying, a slow down or stall does not always mean a change in direction. Everyone along both coasts of Florida just need to keep a weary eye on her and be prepared. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[AdamFirst]

At this rate it'll be Christmas before it crosses Cuba.

[KWT]

Its movement is pretty slow as has been mentioned and I also agree that overall movement is WNW despite recon shwoing only slight latitude gains during its time in there.

[Shockwave]

Model agreement doesn't exist right now, that can be for certain.


BAM's, NOGAPS and MM5 are pushing the storm west over the dangerous Loop Current, UKMET is holding on with the NHC's forecast, and GFDL concludes a strong trough to send this out to sea.


With uncertainty like this one thing is for sure, nobody needs to close their eyes and that includes both the Northern GOM and SE Florida.


The one thing that scares me, is model uncertainty.

And with model uncertainity, you have no way of telling where it will go until it's almost too late to warn people. The wrost possible senerio in my mind, is that Fay decides to sit out in the Gulf (likes she's doing now) and just strengthen before she decides to move inland over the Northern areas of the Gulf.

[Pearl River]

AdamFirst wrote:

At this rate it'll be Christmas before it crosses Cuba.

HO HO HO

[cpdaman]

I remember 39 years ago this weekend when a storm named Camille stalled in the GOM and was then supposed to turn to the north and head into the panhandle. We all know what happened, no turn and I know technology has come a very long way since then. No, I am not saying Fay is going to be another Camille, nor am I saying she is headed to LA/MS. I'm just saying, a slow down or stall does not always mean a change in direction. Everyone along both coasts of Florida just need to keep a weary eye on her and be prepared. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

we should just post this every 5 hours

also anyone check the rainfall rates in s fl with these bands that seemed to have stalled out over south-central florida. lake okechobee has a cell dropping over 2 inches an hour and not moving, tons of moisture in the air, look out for flooding w/ this one.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

perhaps we get "lucky" and she stall near the mountainous terrain in west central cuba late tonite. although they already have a heck of a flooding problem (they must)

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Its movement is pretty slow as has been mentioned and I also agree that overall movement is WNW despite recon shwoing only slight latitude gains during its time in there.

Since all of the models showed a NW turn I'm going to assume that at least that angle of turn will be taken when shw resumes movement.

[tolakram]

I remember 39 years ago this weekend when a storm named Camille stalled in the GOM and was then supposed to turn to the north and head into the panhandle. We all know what happened, no turn and I know technology has come a very long way since then. No, I am not saying Fay is going to be another Camille, nor am I saying she is headed to LA/MS. I'm just saying, a slow down or stall does not always mean a change in direction. Everyone along both coasts of Florida just need to keep a weary eye on her and be prepared. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

we should just post this every 5 hours

also anyone check the rainfall rates in s fl with these bands that seemed to have stalled out over south-central florida. lake okechobee has a cell dropping over 2 inches an hour and not moving, tons of moisture in the air, look out for flooding w/ this one.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

We know intensity predictions stink but track predictions are pretty darn good. Whatever caused Camille to stall would probably be picked up by todays models. I'm NOT saying tracks are 100% accurate but I think it's prudent to go by what the NHC says unless you have a good basis for saying otherwise.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don'r see much movement of the system, just convection increasing. Looks like the ULL to the W is losing infuence on the storm.

[boca]

Its hard to tell with all that convection down there.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

AdamFirst wrote:

At this rate it'll be Christmas before it crosses Cuba.

HO HO HO

I think it's more like this...

[AdamFirst]

This storm sort of reminds me of 1999's Hurricane Irene

didn't that fiddle faddle around Cuba before it cut across the state?

[cpdaman]

i think the best way to define her motion is erratic.........just like the nhc said it had become