Global model runs discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah definitely not looking good at all the remainder of the season for any Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Even homegrown/close-in development for the remainder of the season now seems iffy to me.

It still only takes one for a huge impact, and there's a lot of time since any effects of El Nino won't be felt for weeks, if not months.

Actually some El Niño effects have already been felt for a while now. With the higher than shear across the MDR regions in past months on the Atlantic side, and the record breaking strong early start to the East Pacific hurricane season with Amanda and Cristina being very early season Cat.4 hurricanes.

[SFLcane]

Lol it's not even August yet, long ways to go

Season is over reading some of these posts..

[TheStormExpert]

Lol it's not even August yet, long ways to go

Season is over reading some of these posts..

I'm surprised there hasn't been a Season Cancel thread yet.

[gatorcane]

While the global models are not enthusiast about development anytime soon, the GFS and CMC (GEM) models are both showing some lowering of pressures SW of the Cape Verde islands in about one week from now.

Nothing from the ECMWF yet but let's see if the models are trying to latch onto something out there. Still early to expect development that far but getting closer to the start of the Cape Verde season.

12Z GFS 186 hours:


12Z CMC 186 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

I know that the Euro shows nothing much in the Atlantic but if I were to go off of its MJO forecast there may be a favorable period between the last few days of the month to mid August and it does a lot better than the GFS with the MJO so this may cause an increase in vertical instability and possibly an interesting time in the Atlantic

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

The MJO is on its way next month to the Atlantic just in time for the heart of the cape verde season. I expect the models to start picking up on something very soon in the long range.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lol it's not even August yet, long ways to go

And this was said 100x's over last season and nothing ever changed. Wait til the first of august, just wait three more weeks, now just two more weeks. No wait til sept 10 then things will take off. Conditions are terrible and have been. And it is early winter like. We are having cold fronts dropping all the way down to the gulf coast just like last year, as well as strong east coast troughs hanging tough.

[Hurricaneman]

The MJO is on its way next month to the Atlantic just in time for the heart of the cape verde season. I expect the models to start picking up on something very soon in the long range.

yep and shows the MJO starting to become favorable by the beginning of next month, that really never happened last year

[jlauderdal]

Yeah definitely not looking good at all the remainder of the season for any Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Even homegrown/close-in development for the remainder of the season now seems iffy to me.

if this troughing continues like its october then homegorwn will be the only game in town, lets see;; we are just getting underway..we can regroup in 3 weeks and see where we are at

[tolakram]

This is the global model run thread, let's completely cut the chatter about what people think of this hurricane season and move it to a more appropriate thread.

Like this one: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116017&start=240

[gatorcane]

12Z Model runs at 192 hours (Aug 1st):

Euro showing a large wave near the Cape Verde islands:


GFS showing a broad area of low pressure SW of the Cape Verde islands:


CMC showing a weak low pressure SW of the Cape Verde islands at 192 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

It seems that the models are showing something around 192hrs which coincides with the MJO coming into phases 1 and 2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

latest euro shows well above normal pressures off africa in 10 days. maybe some kind of vorticity will be out there but there is no way anything will form in those high pressures, sinking air and bone dry conditions.

[NDG]

The Euro however shows possible subtropical/tropical development in the subtropical Atlantic from a retrograding UL trough in the middle of the Atlantic in its 7-10 day range.




Also, look at the huge ridge at H50 it builds in the NW Atlantic, wow!

[Dean4Storms]

Well the MJO gives us a more favorable atmosphere instability wise. But models beyond 5 days are not reliable so until we get continuity and a consensus building with the global models I will not hold my breath for the MDR that far out.

[tolakram]

Here's a look at the GFS 500mb relative humidity from the 6z run.

0


90


180



source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014072506&field=500mb+Relative+Humidity&hour=Animation

[tolakram]

So if the GFS forecast is correct a big push of moist air is coming off Africa at 180-192 hours. Question is, will this moisten up the upper air desert that is out there now?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, getting ready to enter August in about a week and still no sign of anything, thus I'm sticking by my prediction of only making it to the "G" storm...

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS shows a low forming in the MDR around August 1st and moves the low west through the lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean.

168 hours, low is just west of 40W:

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to develop something around 48hrs from a piece of ITCZ vorticity closing off a low around 120hrs so is this one of those GFS phantom storms or is this a legit possibility and has it in the Bahamas at 252 FYI but it may need to be watched in case of a similar pinch off to TD2 and the reason I think this may be a possibility is that the MJO seems to becoming into the Atlantic around the first of August

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.