ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

I could see this coming in as far south as maybe Sarasota and as far west as Pensacola but this may be a formidable hurricane at landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[jlauderdal]

SW Florida could actually be in trouble now.

sw florida has a healthy feeder band moving onshore...if you live near the coast watch out

[Aric Dunn]

Well, I will say that it is great having Recon in the system right now as the system is slowly intensifying. We are watching the intensification trend unfold literally.

yeah given the trends. by the time this flight is over. could be looking at 60mph by morning approaching hurricane...

[TropicalSailor]

That sure looks like a pretty big wobble to the east if you ask me if the center is truly under that latest convection blowup:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

All I have to say is we shall see. There have been some people on here (including promets) that have been dead wrong with this storm at certain times. I don't think it's playing by the rules and hats exactly what the NHC uses to forecast so excuse me if I want I to discuss obvious movement a little closer. That's not freaking out, that's called discussion.

[Noles2016]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

Anyone going to mention the NNW jog btw the last 2 VDMs?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is Recon heading back?

[TropicalSailor]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

Anyone going to mention the NEW jog btw the last 2 VDMs?

I wouldn't suggest it.

[Aric Dunn]

oh no recon looks to be returning.. the new one

[Hurricaneman]

Well, I will say that it is great having Recon in the system right now as the system is slowly intensifying. We are watching the intensification trend unfold literally.

yeah given the trends. by the time this flight is over. could be looking at 60mph by morning approaching hurricane...

maybe even a hurricane by the 5AM advisory so this could be more dangerous than was originally expected

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[TheStormExpert]

56 flight level winds on the last pass with 1001mb pressure, Hermine is as strong as the GFS has it at landfall, 12z Euro intensity during landfall looks good to me if not a little lower.

Is it possible she's rapidly intensifying?

[TropicalSailor]

oh no recon looks to be returning.. the new one

Crap. Let's hope not.

[Noles2016]

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

Anyone going to mention the NEW jog btw the last 2 VDMs?

I wouldn't suggest it.

Meant NNW. Dang autocorrect.

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

Anyone going to mention the NEW jog btw the last 2 VDMs?

I wouldn't suggest it.

I think this normal organization erratic motion means that the azores should really watch out.. j/k

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended
westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall
occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system appears better organized on satellite images than it was
yesterday, with more evidence of convective banding features.
However, based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data the center is
still situated near the northern edge of the main convective cloud
mass. Also, data from the aircraft show a very asymmetric wind
field with all of the strong winds occurring over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the circulation. The advisory intensity
is set to 40 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the
Hurricane Hunters. Hermine should be in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear until it nears the coast, when
the dynamical models show increasing shear. The official intensity
forecast has been nudged upward a bit, and there is a distinct
possibility that Hermine could become a hurricane before landfall.
The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on
the latest global model forecasts, which show the cyclone becoming
embedded within a front over the eastern United States by 72 hours.

The aircraft data show a rather broad area of light winds near the
center, making the actual center fixes a little uncertain.
However, the best estimate of initial motion is north-northeastward
or 030/6 kt. A developing mid-level trough over the southeastern
United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward at
increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The GFS and
ECMWF global models have shifted westward from their previous
predictions, and so has the new official forecast. This required a
westward extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm
warning along the Florida panhandle. Later in the forecast period,
there is significant uncertainty in the track of the system, which
will depend on how the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a
mid-tropospheric cutoff low that develops over the northeastern
United States. The new official forecast keeps the cyclone closer
to the east coast from 72-120 hours in deference to the latest GFS
solution.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system. In addition to the normal uncertainty in track and
intensity forecasts, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to
extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of
the path of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 25.5N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 28.1N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 30.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 36.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z 39.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NDG]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-1009A-CYCLONE.png

Was that a 60-64 knot register? Jeez this is picking up fast.

There is still something very wrong with the structure of this storm when you see nothing more then a breeze in 3 out of 4 quadrants as per recon.

To be fair, it did not really investigate the SW quadrant. But yes the storm is asymmetric, is like on a surface trough SW to NE, with the strongest winds & wx south of that trough.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
700 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS SOME WHILE IT HEADS TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Recent reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

56 flight level winds on the last pass with 1001mb pressure, Hermine is as strong as the GFS has it at landfall, 12z Euro intensity during landfall looks good to me if not a little lower.

Is it possible she's rapidly intensifying?

too some extent yes.. not likely to get past cat 2 though.. mid range cat one seems reasonable.

[deltadog03]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

[caneman]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.

I for one am not freaking out, even though I had 10 inches of rain today that wasn't forecasted for today. I still believe Cedar Key and even more so with the east shift. Pinellas county should at least be under watches.

[Evil Jeremy]

I haven't had this much fun tracking the tropics in ages. The low-stakes unpredictability of the past week has been entertaining. Next 24 hours should be fun as well.

I reeeaaally hope we don't lose that overnight Recon mission. It's incredibly essential right now, since the intensity and track are so finicky.