CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

170 kt? That would be like a 60 mile wide EF5 tornado...think Greensburg at make that swath 60 miles wide (with a large swath of lesser but still severe to extreme damage)...

[jacindc]

Do we have any model runs coming out soon? I need some fresh speculation.

The shift southward on some of this models this afternoon seems to have quieted the troops somewhat.

[miamicanes177]

The Chad weather guy on CNN is still reporting 135mph...you would think CNN would be top of this and get the update. Higher winds = Higher Hype and Higher Ratings

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z NAM coming out..

18 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif

[vacanechaser]

Here's trusting that models are always wrong. I'm directly in the path of those of those 170 kt winds on that model run, and I don't think my house is built THAT sturdy.

well, it actually does not bring it in to texas that strong.. here it is below:





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fasterdisaster]

The Chad weather guy on CNN is still reporting 135mph...you would think CNN would be top of this and get the update. Higher winds = Higher Hype and Higher Ratings

So true

[miamicanes177]

Question: The faster it goes the more west? OR ..the faster it goes the more north?

[HouTXmetro]

Do we have any model runs coming out soon? I need some fresh speculation.

The shift southward on some of this models this afternoon seems to have quieted the troops somewhat.

lol, the boards are alot less busy

[KBBOCA]

Here are a few more hurricane-related prayers I found back in 2005. Hope it's ok to post these, but I find it's helpful for those of us far away who want to DO something to have some words to use in guiding our prayers. It's easy to let the overwhelming nature of this storm paralyze us to the point of not knowing how to pray or act.
-----

Lord, God of the Universe, creator and sustainer of all life,
Grant us the serenity to respond to disaster in bold faith, seeking not certainty, but rather the assurance of your abiding presence. Grant us hope when we spiral into despair and fill our broken hearts with the love with which you surround us. As we rebuild, guide each hammer and nail with a ring of hope; bless each bandage and conversation with the balm of healing, and strengthen each resolve with the blessed assurance that all manner of thing shall be well, through Jesus Christ, our Lord. Amen.

God of heaven and earth, God who carries our lives and the lives of our whole community in Your hands, be with us in the peril of this day/night. Help us to release our anxieties and fears into those same caring hands, knowing in faith that Your will for us is life and everlasting good. Send Your holy angels to watch over us and guard us. May they spread their holy wings to give us shelter against the storm. For you alone, O God, are all good, all life, all love, and that love is for us; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

O Lord, King of the Universe, master of the winds and the rain, be with those this day who are facing the hurricane’s wrath. Succor those who are in fright, be with those who are trying to save lives, open the hands of those whose generosity is needed to help. O Lord, Master of the wind and the rain, be with those, and if possible, let this storm weaken. Remember we are your children. In the name of Jesus, Amen.

[vacanechaser]

Question: The faster it goes the more west? OR ..the faster it goes the more north?

the slower it moves the bigger chance it would move more north.. dean is slowing a bit now... still very uncertain



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Swimdude]

Thanks for all the opinions... 170 knots = 195.5 mph... I believe that would be the 2nd fastest wind speed ever recorded in a hurricane on the planet. Hopefully, this is outrageous. I really hope the GFDL has just gone insane. It brings Dean into Texas at a measley (HAH!) 166 mph storm. Goodness.

[CrazyC83]

015
URNT15 KNHC 180201
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 25 20070818
015030 1330N 06640W 6965 03165 0064 +091 +054 306022 023 027 000 00
015100 1330N 06638W 6965 03163 0065 +090 +053 303022 022 027 000 00
015130 1330N 06636W 6969 03159 0062 +091 +050 302023 024 027 000 00
015200 1330N 06634W 6964 03160 0062 +091 +049 300023 024 028 000 00
015230 1330N 06632W 6968 03157 0058 +094 +045 302025 026 030 000 00
015300 1330N 06630W 6967 03159 0058 +095 +042 301026 027 031 000 00
015330 1330N 06628W 6967 03157 0058 +095 +042 303028 028 030 000 00
015400 1330N 06626W 6968 03158 0058 +094 +042 303028 028 031 000 00
015430 1330N 06624W 6967 03158 0056 +095 +050 295026 027 031 000 00
015500 1330N 06622W 6965 03159 0059 +093 +055 294025 026 031 000 00
015530 1330N 06620W 6969 03155 0059 +093 +060 289024 024 031 000 00
015600 1330N 06619W 6967 03157 0057 +090 +063 285024 025 032 000 00
015630 1330N 06617W 6968 03156 0058 +090 +064 285024 024 032 000 00
015700 1330N 06615W 6965 03158 0057 +091 +062 281024 024 031 000 00
015730 1330N 06613W 6967 03154 0056 +092 +062 277024 025 032 000 00
015800 1330N 06611W 6968 03153 0060 +087 +066 278025 025 031 000 00
015830 1330N 06609W 6968 03154 0064 +083 +070 278025 026 030 000 00
015900 1330N 06607W 6967 03155 0066 +082 +071 272025 025 028 000 00
015930 1330N 06605W 6967 03154 0061 +086 +065 269027 028 028 001 00
020000 1330N 06603W 6969 03151 0054 +090 +060 267027 028 031 003 00
$$

[DESTRUCTION5]

Do we have any model runs coming out soon? I need some fresh speculation.

The shift southward on some of this models this afternoon seems to have quieted the troops somewhat.

lol, the boards are alot less busy

Went from lots of FL to lots of Tx now its just the real fans..

[LAwxrgal]

GFDL peak strength 170 knots? Landfall 145 knots?

I hope to God it's wrong on intensity. Someone would be in for a world of hurt.

I do like the southward trend on the models. I don't want anyone to get hit really, I would like this thing to dissipate, but since it won't, let it come in where there are fewer people.

[jaxfladude]

Media screwup alert: The Met for Fox News Channel just called Jamaica the "Island of Guatemala"

[Stratusxpeye]

Here's trusting that models are always wrong. I'm directly in the path of those of those 170 kt winds on that model run, and I don't think my house is built THAT sturdy.

well, it actually does not bring it in to texas that strong.. here it is below:





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I hope you meant not that strong as in the 170knts the previous poster said about his house not being sturdy. Because 145knots I think would be pretty strong. CAT 5 into the Houston area.

[jeff]

00Z 18 guidance tracks have shifted southward again. Two camps appear to be developing..one deep in the Bay of Campeche and the other aimed at the coast just S of TX...GFDL is very far north. Even the steady right GFS ensembles are starting to trend southward on the 00Z runs. Too early to determine if this is a real trend...need it to hold through Saturday and then we shall know more.

[LAwxrgal]

Media screwup alert: The Met for Fox News Channels just called Jamaica the "Island of Guatemala"

Oh boy... get ready for a lot more of this in the days to come...the media hype is going to get out of control. Especially since it's close to the K "anniversary".

[HouTXmetro]

Question: The faster it goes the more west? OR ..the faster it goes the more north?

the slower it moves the bigger chance it would move more north.. dean is slowing a bit now... still very uncertain



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I thought conventional Wisdom was the slower Dean moves the more time the Ridge has to build in. In order for Dean to move North he must move fast and gain latitude to catch the ULL weakness.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just wait, they in all likelyhood will shift back to the north, then south, then north over again and everyone will be buzzing again. In my opinion this southern track is far from being etched in stone. Also to the person who asked about the faster Dean moves west the better chance of moving north, I think that is correct as the ull will be in the gulf and before moving out and the high has a chance to build back in Dean will already be approaching and getting a northward jog. Please correct me if i am wrong....