ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[SouthFLTropics]

Well I'll say this. She sure looks to have come to a huge stall and I don't recall any of the models picking that up. This has been one of the most fun storms I've watched in a while.

Fun? I think more like frustrating is the word I'd call it.

But S2K is like a drug...I'm still here...

[SouthFLTropics]

This storm sort of reminds me of 1999's Hurricane Irene

didn't that fiddle faddle around Cuba before it cut across the state?

Kind of like Irene...The big difference is that Irene was in October and this is August. Much different steering in August than October. But I do recall the NHC missing the forecast with Irene pretty bad.

SFT

[SoupBone]

Well I'll say this. She sure looks to have come to a huge stall and I don't recall any of the models picking that up. This has been one of the most fun storms I've watched in a while.

Fun? I think more like frustrating is the word I'd call it.

But S2K is like a drug...I'm still here...

Well it's definately entertainment for me!

[fci]

I remember 39 years ago this weekend when a storm named Camille stalled in the GOM and was then supposed to turn to the north and head into the panhandle. We all know what happened, no turn and I know technology has come a very long way since then. No, I am not saying Fay is going to be another Camille, nor am I saying she is headed to LA/MS. I'm just saying, a slow down or stall does not always mean a change in direction. Everyone along both coasts of Florida just need to keep a weary eye on her and be prepared. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

we should just post this every 5 hours

also anyone check the rainfall rates in s fl with these bands that seemed to have stalled out over south-central florida. lake okechobee has a cell dropping over 2 inches an hour and not moving, tons of moisture in the air, look out for flooding w/ this one.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

How many feet down is Lake O?
at 2" per hour, if it is down a couple of feet then 10-12 hours should do it!

[wxman57]

00Z model guidance has shifted back to the east a bit. Again, I removed the garbage BAM models, NAM, and other experimental models and focus on the better consensus models, GFDL, and HWRF. Same models plotted on both images.

First, the current run:


Now, 6 hours ago. Definitely a shift east. Many more of them south of Tampa.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if it made sense to take SE FL metro out of the cone at the 5pm EST advisory?

Looking at the movement things may be getting interesting.

[SouthFLTropics]

00Z model guidance has shifted back to the east a bit. Again, I removed the garbage BAM models, NAM, and other experimental models and focus on the better consensus models, GFDL, and HWRF. Same models plotted on both images.

First, the current run:


Now, 6 hours ago. Definitely a shift east. Many more of them south of Tampa.

Wxman,

You mentioned earlier that JB may have been onto something with his track across FL and then up towards the Carolina coast. And while you weren't ready to buy off on that entire scenario I am tending to agree with you that something close to that could happen with the trough stretched across North Florida. The steering there seems pretty clear from West to East.

SFT

[Stormcenter]

00Z model guidance has shifted back to the east a bit. Again, I removed the garbage BAM models, NAM, and other experimental models and focus on the better consensus models, GFDL, and HWRF. Same models plotted on both images.

First, the current run:


Now, 6 hours ago. Definitely a shift east. Many more of them south of Tampa.

Tampa looks like ground zero right now.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if it made sense to take SE FL metro out of the cone at the 5pm EST advisory?

Looking at the movement things may be getting interesting.

When I look at this WV image, I see a pretty sharp trough digging pretty deep now into the SE US and approaching the Eastern GOM possibly eroding all ridging there...I think Fay may be feeling it as we speak:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Shockwave]

wxman57, could you PM me the exact same model track, but add in the other models you left out since you don't want to post them on here? Thanks.

[storms in NC]

Look at all that moister. It should be able to keep. The bands don't look to bad either. it could be a big storm if it wasn't for the ULL to the East and land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[jaxfladude]

Fay
I am getting dizzy.....

[Steve Cosby]

FWIW, 8PM JB says that latest recon showing a NE move is not an actual move to the north and east but, rather, Fay finally forming a core.

Interesting take for sure.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know about you guys, but when I look at the entire Caribbean, I see a drift to the NW right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

i think the intersting thing about those model runs is that unless fay picks up some speed now (possible) then she won't move as much as the 12 and 24 hour forecast points call for (north or west)

i'm thinking there is a distinct possibilty she gets stuck over cuba and messed up pretty bad (and should she not go further north than fort myers) she may never get her act together.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wonder if it made sense to take SE FL metro out of the cone at the 5pm EST advisory?

Looking at the movement things may be getting interesting.

When I look at this WV image, I see a pretty sharp trough digging pretty deep now into the SE US and approaching the Eastern GOM possibly eroding all ridging there...I think Fay may be feeling it as we speak:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I agree, and I believe that is why she is slowing up. Once Fay's movement resumes, I expect her to be moving more NW or even NNW.

[fci]

I wonder if it made sense to take SE FL metro out of the cone at the 5pm EST advisory?

Looking at the movement things may be getting interesting.

What do you expect to get more interesting for SE FL?
I don't see anything but am curious to see what you do see!

[gatorcane]

I know animal life is pretty insignificant but I did see flocks of birds heading west tonight here in Palm Beach County on the East Coast.....

another poster in Sarasota is not noticing any anomalies around animal life.

[tolakram]

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

[Jason_B]

I agree gatorcane, I think overnight we could see a near due north drift and eventually a NNE motion. Wouldn't rule out south Florida yet, I think the NHC will definitely come back east with their track.