ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[uhvjaguars22]

claudette came right over my head, and was strengthening as it moved in as well

[Shawee]

This is NOT the direction you want for the storm surge.

Just for you (and everyone else of cource)... got this surge protection tool from my Sea Grant friends:
water levels based on hurricane forecasts of trajectory and wind used to simulate the ADCIRC model of storm surge.  The Advanced Surge Guidance System, or ASGS, has been in development for several years.  The tool can be found at: 
 
http://cera.cct.lsu.edu/cgi-cera-ng/cera-ng.cgi
 
The output is in google map format; and thus can be zoomed into area of interest using panel on left hand side of the site. 
 
At top of the page, go to Advisory/Track and pull down to advisory 26.  At
that point you have options on three different tracks: consensus, veer
left and veer right. (the page may open to veer right; go to the pull down window and find consensus to review estimates for the NHC consensus track) 
 
You can also check out the Gage stations (on right panel, near the bottom)
to compare model predictions and actual water levels.

[Countrygirl911]

was looking at recon they have found 83kts which is a 95mph hurricane can someone verify this please

83 knots at the surface?

if i am reading it correcly it said surface and in the higher levels had it at 95 kts but i could be reading it wrong i am new to reading the information that is comming in

[CrazyC83]

86 kt at that level = 69 kt at the surface. The 70 kt dropsonde also suggests that is a reasonable estimate.

[PTrackerLA]

So they are going to wait until the 10 AM to upgrade?

[WeatherGuesser]

Meanwhile, water is beginning to flood the streets of Grand Isle, where 100 residents opted to ride out the storm instead evacuate.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... ge_fl.html

[Countrygirl911]

Country Girl, do you have a link for Grand Isle Flooding?
Thanks,
Tim

all i have is a picture my sister posted i will try to get the picture on here

[Time_Zone]

86 kt at that level = 69 kt at the surface. The 70 kt dropsonde also suggests that is a reasonable estimate.

Yep. no doubt about it this thing is a hurricane right now.

[pwrdog]

If this stays slow, it could be a very bad thing for flooding. Debby was a smaller TS by far and we got 26 inches of rain here according to my gauge. (this was because it stayed put for so long.) Some people got flooded out here who had lived in their houses for 30 years or longer and had never gotten flooded!

In any event I hope people stay safe and realize that the rain/storm surge of a TS can be bad as well. And this is not counting the fact that it does appear to finally be strengthening.. (but we have been proven wrong in that regard many times so far with this storm.)

Overland flooding can flood just about anyone.. The people of Houston know this very well.. We got 25-40 inches during Tropical Storm Allison... Places flooded that had not flooded in recorded history..

I got right at 18 inches in 4 hours.. Just insane..

In 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 30-43 inches of rain just SE Of Houston in just 24 hours....

[BigEasy]

Grand Isle, LA is already flooding

Can you give us more information? My company has camps there.

You can go to FOX8 New Orleans on the internet, through your computer or smart phone, iPad..etc, and they are streaming live. They have folks on the ground all over, some of which I remember, on Grand Isle. Hope this helps.

[tolakram]

Please Read

If you report news please site a source.

There is a preparation and observation thread here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113510

Do not post one line comments or other useless posts with no content.

Avoid posting comments about other storms unless they are directly relevant to the Isaac discussion.

We're going to be busy today and these posts will be removed without warning. Repeated spamming in the thread may result in account suspension. Please think before you post.

[Countrygirl911]

i hope the picture comes up on this link

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?f ... =1&theater

[Sanibel]

I don't think this is headed to Texas so the concern that appears to be happening is almost certainly unfounded. NHC has had, once again, an excellent handle on track.


WX57 should also be given credit for calling this weakness.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest IR. Dry slot again making it near center, and overall cloud tops have warmed since earlier this morning.

[Janie2006]

Remember the equation for translating knots to mph: kts x 1.15 = wind speed in miles per hour. So, if you have an estimated surface wind of 65 kts you just multiply that by 1.15 and you get 74.75 mph....hurricane force.

[mpic]

Live news here
http://www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt

[monicaei]

Meanwhile, water is beginning to flood the streets of Grand Isle, where 100 residents opted to ride out the storm instead evacuate.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... ge_fl.html

Mayor Carmadelle was on WWL and said there were only about 35 people still on the island? Also, for folks interested in GI, there's a FB page for FOGI (friends of Grand Isle) that seems to be compiling info.

[rainstorm]

just saw this on another board. isaac now has the lowest pre hurricane pressure for any trpoical cyclone in history in the atlantic basin. at least we set a record for something this season.

[pledger28]

I don't think this is headed to Texas so the concern that appears to be happening is almost certainly unfounded. NHC has had, once again, an excellent handle on track.


WX57 should also be given credit for calling this weakness.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It does not take a direct hit from a TS or Hurricane to feel the effects. I am very near the TX/LA line. If the storm tracks to the westward side of the cone TX could very well feel effects from this storm. I hope people in TX are being vigilant regardless of the numerous comments about the storm not coming to TX. It does not have to come to TX for Issac to leave its mark here. As the track stands now, I have little concern.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

86 kt at that level = 69 kt at the surface. The 70 kt dropsonde also suggests that is a reasonable estimate.

Yep. no doubt about it this thing is a hurricane right now.

No it isn't. Not until NHC says it is a hurricane is it a hurricane. We went through this earlier when it was going from an invest to a depression, and then again when it was a depression going to TS.