Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Round 1 of showers and thunderstorms moving through right now. NWS Jax has a severe thunderstorm warning up until 3:15 for the Jax metro area. Getting heavy rains right now at my office near downtown Jax. Another round of storms is expected to develop across North Florida later this afternoon into this evening as another shortwave moving across the panhandlle currently approaches the northeast peninsula.

Meanwhile, NWS Jax mets are now jumping on the wetter scenario bandwagon with regards to the models.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALBEIT WITH A
FEW CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ERN GULF COAST. CYCLOGENESIS NOW APPEARS WELL EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY AND NE TO
EAST WINDS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. MODELS VARY AS TO WHETHER A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. IF IT DOES...THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS FOR NOW AND
ADJUST AS THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH LESS DIURNAL
VARIATION NEAR THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

[NDG]

MLB has started to nudged rain chances upward towards the weekend for central FL but my boy Tom Terry from WFTV has gone ahead in increasing rain chances to 50% through the weekend.

WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO A VERY
SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE POS TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE SERN CONUS TO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OR SPOT
LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SERN SEABOARD FRI-FRI NIGHT
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING WSW BACK TO INVOF SRN OR ECFL. BOTH THE
12Z MAV AND 00Z ECM MOS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STOUT NUMBERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE
STATE WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL H50 HGTS ALOFT...HAVE
NUDGED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...BUT STILL ABOUT 5-10 PCT BELOW
THE MOS CONSENSUS. SPECIFIC POP NUMBERS ARE 40/60 WED NGT-THU...AND
40/40 THU NGT-FRI.

SAT-MON...LATEST TREND OF THE GFS/ECM IS FOR A H50 LOW TO BRIEFLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER PENINSULAR NORTH FL OR THE PANHANDLE BEFORE IT
OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH ONCE AGAIN WITH A SLOW RISE IN HEIGHTS OF
ABOUT 10-20M BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LINGERS
AROUND THE BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY STAGNANT
AND UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY NUDGED
POPS UP ABOUT 10 PCT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT LEFT MON-TUE AS IS...
HOWEVER THE CURRENT FCST POPS FROM SAT ONWARD (30 FOR SAT/SUN AND 20
FOR MON/TUE) ARE NOW ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE ECX AND ABOUT 20 PCT
BELOW THE MEX.

GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS
SHOULD AVERAGE A TAD BELOW CLIMO.

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[NDG]

Strong rotation with the cell in northern Brevard County.
With the tornado warning now extending through 7:45 pm.

[northjaxpro]

[gsytch]

well,the convection sure helped as it poured here finally! While at school in Hudson (15 mi N of me) it rained all day lightly, here the gauge says 1.15" which is a HUGE blessing in May. Yes, more appears on its way. So wonderful at this time of year......just not on the weekend, please.......

[AdamFirst]

While we were sleeping last night

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1205170620

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ059-064-170700-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
220 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER MARTIN
COUNTY...SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 218 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING INTERSTATE
95 FROM PORT SAINT LUCIE SOUTH INTO MARTIN COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUD OR
LANDSPOUT FORMATION. A LANDSPOUT IS A TORNADO OF VERY SHORT DURATION
AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 60 MPH WHICH CAN CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE
AND INJURIES IN ITS DIRECT PATH. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RA

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1205170634

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
234 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STUART...PALM CITY...JENSEN BEACH...
HOBE SOUND...

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT.

* AT 233 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
PALM CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND APPROACHING THE TURNPIKE
AND INTERSTATE 95 WEST OF HOBE SOUND.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORT
SALERNO...JUPITER ISLAND...ROCKY POINT AND HOBE SOUND BEACH

[gsytch]

It did keep raining, and raining yesterday. Total for this storm event is 1.75". So, in one 24 hour rain event (or less) we received roughly 2/3 of our month's total. Including the prior rain (once) we did hit the average of around 2.5". Nice start for May. Hope the summer continues rainy!

[northjaxpro]

Severe thunderstorms are approaching my location from the north rolling down I-95 corridor. NWS Jax has warnings up until 6 p.m.

[NDG]

Storms that moved over Downtown Orlando this evening.

[northjaxpro]

I received just under an inch of rainfall ( 0.85 ) in those thunderstorms that moved through my location a couple of hours ago. Brings my 3 day total of rainfall since Tuesday of this week to just under 4 inches. This rain has been a God send that's for sure. I have seen almost as much rain in the past three days than I had received for 2012. Before this week, the total measured rainfall for the year that I measured here was just under 5.5 inches.

Thanks to this week's rainfall, I am finally approaching 10 inches for 2012 at my home location. However, still about 6-7 inches below the average of where we should be for May. Making progress at least in putting a dent into the drought.

Nice pics BTW NDG

[AdamFirst]

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

AT 651 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER PALM
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE NORTH RIVER SHORES...PORT SALERNO...NETTLES
ISLAND AND ROCKY POINT.

[AdamFirst]

Extremely active and nasty day along the Treasure Coast

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST.
LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF TAYLOR
CREEK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKEECHOBEE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

* AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PALM CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PORT SALERNO...STUART...NORTH RIVER SHORES...ROCKY POINT AND JENSEN
BEACH

[gsytch]

Not a cloud to speak of, sunny skies, warm westerly winds for the third consecutive day...balmy upper 80's dewpoints around 70F....perfect May weather in Tampa Bay...some rainfall would be nice after that dumping earlier in the week, but it is May and SoFla is the only ones getting it.

[JonathanBelles]

Possible tornado here in St. Pete around 10:15pm. A roof was taken off of a motel and cars were moved into an adjacent parking lot. I had a VERY cold blast of air at 10:10 in Kenneth City. I also got a report of 3-5" of standing water in NE St. Pete around the airport.

[northjaxpro]

The outer rain bands from Tropical Storm Alberto rotating southward down the Southeast Georgia coast are gradually approaching the state line along the Saint Marys River basin. Starting to see the straus cloud deck just to the north of my location here in Jax. Some of these outer rainbands from Alberto may pivot through the Jax area late this afternoon into this evening. Alberto has drifted closer to the Northeast Florida coastline than Ithought he would. Initially, I thought Alberto would stall out and meander off the South Carolina coast. However, one model on yesterday, The BAMM, did show Alberto drifting SW to within 50-75 miles off the coast of Jacksonville before finaaly getting picked up to the northeast by an upper trough later on Monday. It appears that model had a good handle on this as it turns out.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax office has issued local products on Alberto and its local impacts on Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, even though at the current time there are no watches or warnings for this region.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST...

STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3N...LONGITUDE 79.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 110 MILES
NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL...OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
BRUNSWICK GA. STORM MOTION WAS WEST SOUTHWEST WEST OR 245 DEGREES
AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC COAST. THE MAIN LOCAL
IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM BRUNSWICK TO JACKSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS....ELEVATED SEAS...AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES. ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

NEXT UPDATE...


THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 6 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

........

[gsytch]

Dewpoint fell to near 60F today under crystal blue skies, light breezes, 87F high. Just beautiful spring weather but once again SoFla getting pounded. It seems like day after day they are getting rains down there. Some areas must have picked up a LOT of rain. We had 2 days of rain in May, maybe three. Moisture come back! The Everglades appears to have really been dumped on.

[AdamFirst]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC061-111-222000-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-120522T2000Z/
ST. LUCIE-INDIAN RIVER-
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER AND NORTH CENTRAL ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR QUEENS COVE...OR NEAR INDRIO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
LUCIE VILLAGE...MOORINGS OF VERO BEACH...SOUTH BEACH AND FORT PIERCE
NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 63 MPH AT
SAINT LUCIE COUNTY AIRPORT AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN LAKEWOOD PARK
AND INDRIO. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS!

[AdamFirst]

South Florida getting shellacked again today

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC086-222130-
/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120522T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE
PUBLIC CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ROADS REMAIN IMPASSABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO NW 87TH AVE
BETWEEN 25TH AND 36TH STREET IN DORAL.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MEDLEY...
HIALEAH GARDENS...HIALEAH AND DORAL

[HURAKAN]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
334 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...RECORD DAILY RAINFALL SET AT MIAMI...

A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 5.54 INCHES WAS SET AT MIAMI TODAY,
MAY 22ND. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.44 SET IN 1901.

TORRENTIAL RAINS AFFECTED THE AREA. IN FACT, 4.40 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN JUST ONE HOURS TIME AT THE MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.