ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

So its the same strength as Dennis right now, wow pretty amazing stuff

[jasons2k]

Okay, so the FEMA dude misspoke and called it a Category 5. Why all the uproar? It's not like Cat-4 is a thundershower. It's just splitting hairs at this point... hairs that don't matter to the public. Is anyone along threatened sections of the Gulf Coast basing an evacuation decision on whether Gustav obtains Category 5 status? I doubt it. If they are, they aren't too bright.

Because it speaks to the credibility of FEMA and the credibility of the AP. The AP should have known to check & recheck their sources. This is taught in the first semester of journalism school. As the "premier" news outlet that provides news to other news sources, they should have known better. Eric Berger, a reporter for the Houston Chronicle - our local paper - has a science background and would have known better. The AP releases weather-related stories all the time with false information. They apparently don't have anyone over there with a science background. That really says something if they are the so-called "gold standard" for news gathering. And in the future, it could be with something that really does matter to the public.

OK, this is going OT, let's get back to Gustav, which will likely be a Cat. 5 anyway......

[dwg71]

distance between vdm 20 minutes north and 12 minutes west.

3 hour motion vdm, 34 minutes north and 30 minutes west., north of north west, but not quite nnw.

[KWT]

Yep looks like this is a little east of where the forecasts from about 12hrs were prediciting, probably deeper hurricane taking a slightly more northerly track.

Now the key question has to be what does Cuba do to Gustav?

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org

[Dean4Storms]

It still appears to me that Gustav is staying just a hair east of the forecasted track, not by much but if it continued over time it could cause adjustments to the east of the track. The longer out in time the wider this left of track becomes if it keeps this up to landfall.

[rockyman]

east shift at landfall:



Hurricane Watches issued

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC will have to up winds to 130kts simply because of the 143kts found at flight level.

I think this probably has a 12-18hrs in which to become a cat-5 over the loop current waters before conditions slowly become less condusive and we should slowly see some weakening occur...but by that time the damage will be done.

[BigB0882]

I am really confused right now. Not to sound rude, but I am really not understanding all of this "Texas" talk. I have been coming to this board for 4 years (under a different name until last year), and I have always, always heard that the north eastern quadrant was the worst place to be during a hurricane. In this case, AT THIS TIME, that would be southeast LA and the MGC. Yet in all of these pages I have maybe, maybe seen 1 comment about the impact this storm will have on them (the same area affected by Katrina). Can someone please explain why 100 miles to the west of the projected track is already in evacs and 60 miles to the east is not?

As a long time member of S2k, this is rather frustrating because if central Texas is evacuating, residents along the MGC, Alabama coast and Florida panhandle should also evacuate (since they are all in the cone too, and to the east - the bad side - I might add)...

PS - I live in north Alabama, so this does not affect me at all...just doesn't make sense to me!

Beaumont isn't Central Texas. It's extreme Southeast Texas, near the Tx/La border. A lot of the models are just east of here and many show a westward bend toward the end. A slight shift in the track to the west and we could be under the gun.

Why aren't people from those areas talking about it? I guess there's more people from Texas and Louisiana posting. You're faulting Storm2k because there's not enough people from that area posting messages? I don't quite get it. Naturally, most people are concerned about the potential affects of their areas and the immediate decisions they're having to make. This is a very serious situation. Feel free to post about Alabama, Mississippi, or anywhere else you want.
I, like most of the people here, are just trying to get the best information possible so I can make the best decision for me and my family. Remember, this is an open forum, not an article. Anyone can post about any areas they think are important. I, for one, don't know how in the world Storm2k can possibly try to keep up with which geographical areas may be getting slighted in the number of posts, or what we could do about it.

I believe that s/he was simply asking why are places to East of landfall evacuating now but not points to the West. A very logical question which has nothing to do with S2K or people posting from here or there. I think emotions are getting a little too tight.

[HURAKAN]

[BigB0882]

Wow, timing of landfall has drastically changed. Now calling for a 2pm landfall on MONDAY. Is this not huge? I thought it was going to be early Tuesday morning. New Orleans and anyone else who has not done so better order evacuations NOW.

[PTrackerLA]

What kinds of winds would we be looking at in Lafayette given the current forecast? It won't be as bad as it will be on the coast here but I'm very concerned. It's been many decades since this area has seen SUSTAINED hurricane winds and I expect things to look a whole lot different by Wednesday. It's very sad to know what's probably coming...


We're staying in town and it will undoubtedly be a harrowing experience. I have 6 relatives from coastal parishes staying with me including two very elderly so the best we can do is hunker down. I'm not in danger of flooding so it's mainly the winds that concern me.

[AL Chili Pepper]

at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Hurricane Watch is issued for the
northern Gulf Coast from east of High Island Texas eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 500 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued along the Panhandle
coast of Florida from east of the Alabama-Florida border eastward
to the Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

This doesn't make sense. They have the Hurricane Watch east to the FL/AL border but do not have it in the cone?????????

[RL3AO]

This doesn't make sense. They have the Hurricane Watch east to the FL/AL border but do not have it in the cone?????????

If it made landfall on the right side of the cone, that part of the the coast would probably experience hurricane force winds.

[tolakram]

2100Z

[WindRunner]

This doesn't make sense. They have the Hurricane Watch east to the FL/AL border but do not have it in the cone?????????

The cone is just for the center...with the storm's potential size at that point, a 50 miles track shift to the east would easily bring that area into the swath of hurricane-force winds. Since a track shift such as that is very plausible at this point, a watch is certainly a good idea, even that far east.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm afraid i picked the wrong area to evacuate (NE TX).

[Dean4Storms]

This doesn't make sense. They have the Hurricane Watch east to the FL/AL border but do not have it in the cone?????????

If it made landfall on the right side of the cone, that part of the the coast would probably experience hurricane force winds.

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

[KWT]

How long till we have a Cuban landfall, given its speed I would guess not long, then its back out into the Gulf where the loop current is waiting.