Texas Winter 2024-2025

[South Texas Storms]

For you SETX and LA folks where the snowmen pics at?

I tried to build one with my daughter but we didn't get very far as she wanted to go inside because it was too cold.

[Ntxw]

February cold shot? It's possible. POW Ponder has the long range GFS showing the possibility. A recent post from South Texas Storms I believe mentioned the Euro sniffing out something in the long range also. Winter isn't over.

BAM Weather alluded to another potent system entering around February 1st as well! Fingers crossed!

I'm not sold on further events until awhile. I think the next 7 days will have some cold shots, maybe low opportunities, but the teleconnections looks increasingly unfavorable. It will be after the first or second week of February IF the cold air in W-Can is able to bully southward but warmth in the lower part of the nation will resist.

MJO and AO going into their bad phases, and -WPO is looking to relax.

[iorange55]

So happy for my friends up in the Austin region as well as our folks across Houston metro points east into Louisiana who have been patiently waiting for their turn for quite some time. Enjoy the snow folks (blizzard warning into Louisiana crazy). Nice surprise snow here in SA as well.

Another hat tip to our local NWS offices who nailed this forecast again in addition to our own forum mets who never wavered up against the HRRR which damaged its cred a bit (at least with winter weather). Globals were probably a little overdone further north but WRF members at least had the right idea.

Some of the models already hinting at more cold down the road so perhaps we're not done just yet?

We sure the HRRR did poorly ?? It appears from Austin to San Antonio to Houston looks like HRRR did fairly well...official numbers are San Antonio (KSAT) 0.02 qpf. Austin (KAUS) 0.05 qpf, Houston (KIAH) 0.17 qpf. Seemed to also do well with the heavy band thru Beaumont. There maybe some localized areas that skew the output but overall, it doesn't look like a terrible forecast from 12-18 hours out. Important to document/archive this correctly for future analog purposes. Here is the Hi Res model qpf output from Yesterday Morning Monday 1/21/25 at 12Z

HRRR
https://imgur.com/mXZlWi6

RAP
https://imgur.com/vtUod9u

NAM
https://imgur.com/Rq0ngh8

WRF-HRW
https://imgur.com/7AJdimD

HRW-FV3
https://imgur.com/hVWNBBW

Actually, yes. I am sure the HRRR did poorly. Considering for most of yesterday it showed zero qpf over Travis County and we ended up with about 1/2" of snow and ice, I'd say that was a bust. It was a bit too aggressive with pushing the moisture to the coast. I think the NAM actually did the best for my area.

I'd agree with this. Feel like NAM had the best handle on things for Austin/SA area. Can't speak for other regions because I didn't follow their forecast.

[txtwister78]

So happy for my friends up in the Austin region as well as our folks across Houston metro points east into Louisiana who have been patiently waiting for their turn for quite some time. Enjoy the snow folks (blizzard warning into Louisiana crazy). Nice surprise snow here in SA as well.

Another hat tip to our local NWS offices who nailed this forecast again in addition to our own forum mets who never wavered up against the HRRR which damaged its cred a bit (at least with winter weather). Globals were probably a little overdone further north but WRF members at least had the right idea.

Some of the models already hinting at more cold down the road so perhaps we're not done just yet?

We sure the HRRR did poorly ?? It appears from Austin to San Antonio to Houston looks like HRRR did fairly well...official numbers are San Antonio (KSAT) 0.02 qpf. Austin (KAUS) 0.05 qpf, Houston (KIAH) 0.17 qpf. Seemed to also do well with the heavy band thru Beaumont. There maybe some localized areas that skew the output but overall, it doesn't look like a terrible forecast from 12-18 hours out. Important to document/archive this correctly for future analog purposes. Here is the Hi Res model qpf output from Yesterday Morning Monday 1/21/25 at 12Z

HRRR
https://imgur.com/mXZlWi6

RAP
https://imgur.com/vtUod9u

NAM
https://imgur.com/Rq0ngh8

WRF-HRW
https://imgur.com/7AJdimD

HRW-FV3
https://imgur.com/hVWNBBW

Oh yeah, I'm sure.

[kassi]

Beaumont - crazy!

[gpsnowman]

Pensacola about to get drilled.

[South Texas Storms]

So happy for my friends up in the Austin region as well as our folks across Houston metro points east into Louisiana who have been patiently waiting for their turn for quite some time. Enjoy the snow folks (blizzard warning into Louisiana crazy). Nice surprise snow here in SA as well.

Another hat tip to our local NWS offices who nailed this forecast again in addition to our own forum mets who never wavered up against the HRRR which damaged its cred a bit (at least with winter weather). Globals were probably a little overdone further north but WRF members at least had the right idea.

Some of the models already hinting at more cold down the road so perhaps we're not done just yet?

We sure the HRRR did poorly ?? It appears from Austin to San Antonio to Houston looks like HRRR did fairly well...official numbers are San Antonio (KSAT) 0.02 qpf. Austin (KAUS) 0.05 qpf, Houston (KIAH) 0.17 qpf. Seemed to also do well with the heavy band thru Beaumont. There maybe some localized areas that skew the output but overall, it doesn't look like a terrible forecast from 12-18 hours out. Important to document/archive this correctly for future analog purposes. Here is the Hi Res model qpf output from Yesterday Morning Monday 1/21/25 at 12Z

HRRR
https://imgur.com/mXZlWi6

RAP
https://imgur.com/vtUod9u

NAM
https://imgur.com/Rq0ngh8

WRF-HRW
https://imgur.com/7AJdimD

HRW-FV3
https://imgur.com/hVWNBBW

Oh yeah, I'm sure.

Yeah, it busted bad for south central TX. Showed no snow accumulations in SA and Austin. Just freezing rain.

It also didn't forecast the snow across the Brazos Valley well at all.

[MGC]

Getting dumped on here in Pass Christian. Up to 3 inches currently......MGC

[Hurricane_Apu]

My front yard in Lafayette...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Got down to 9 this morning with a surprise light dusting.

[capNstorms]

Attempted to make a snowman, but this snow is a little different, It's the fluffy soft type that won't stick that much together. Only could make a base, Not by making a ball and rolling, just making a pile. Can't make the other two balls without it falling apart. Texas snow.

[Wthrfan]

We got 7" in Beaumont and still coming down. My work buddies from Houston can't even believe it. I had to take measurement pics to prove them wrong. We definitely beat the record here. Here's 4 pics of the measurements.

https://imgur.com/a/6v4q67n

Congrats! Enjoy!

[tolakram]

Very neat to see all the snow. Up here we had a double digit storm a few weeks ago.

Snow was bad for snowballs as well, too fluffy. A day or so in the sun and then it was good and we made a couple. Make a snowman, take a picture. Best way to remember the snow event IMO.

[snownado]

Reports so far out of New Orleans are 3-5".

[Tireman4]

Reports so far out of New Orleans are 3-5".

Yep, they are getting pounding

[weunice]

Getting some reports of upwards of 10" near Lafayette. Seen multiple 8-9" images coming from in and around the area. --- Near me (just east and some south of Baton Rouge lots of 5-7" reports.)

[TropicalTundra]

Temp rose to 33 earlier so all the ice from last night melted. Got maybe a flurry or two before it ended.

Still can’t believe school districts closed because of this up here.

[rwfromkansas]

Very neat to see all the snow. Up here we had a double digit storm a few weeks ago.

Snow was bad for snowballs as well, too fluffy. A day or so in the sun and then it was good and we made a couple. Make a snowman, take a picture. Best way to remember the snow event IMO.

Yeah, once it's melted a bit, it should be better to hold together.

[HockeyTx82]

Temp rose to 33 earlier so all the ice from last night melted. Got maybe a flurry or two before it ended.

Still can’t believe school districts closed because of this up here.

I don't know, that picture you posted a few pages back had me convinced it was the end of times

Maybe the people who made the decision lurk here and saw it!

[rylo7956]

Just measured 8" here. Once in a lifetime event!

https://i.imgur.com/qDp66R8.jpeg

My BIL measured just over 8 inches as well in Lafayette about a hour ago and still snowing. Broussard and Kaliste Saloom area