Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Do these treatment plants prevent the spreading from one lake to the other? Man these mussels are costly Does the recent drought condition play a role in the growing population?

From what I understand, the treatment plants are an expansion at the NTMWD location in Wylie, so they will deal with the mussels directly at the treatement plants. However, now that they are in Lavon, it's just a matter of time before they are found in Ray Hubbard as well.

The drought doesn't affect the zebra mussels unless the lake becomes completely dry. And none of us want that.

Ever since I've read that the mussels are now in Lavon, I wonder what this means for this massive pipeline they built to pump raw Texoma water to the treatments plants? Seems like they could just open Texoma to flow into Lavon now. The damage is done, or maybe they are hoping to fight off the initial infestation before a larger issue ensues.

[Portastorm]

Hey folks, let's keep the discussion related to Texas winter weather. You're more than welcome to start a Texas drought thread under the US and Caribbean Weather header if you'd like.

[Tcu101]

Post from Texas Storm Chasers :




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[Tcu101]

They also state this about the disturbance coming in Thursday " The computer models are not helping much. It doesn’t help that this system will come out of Mexico where data is scarce. So models will have a hard time seeing it."

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 18Z NAM appears to have a little more snow flurries/virga across northern Texas on Thursday; however, as the models have been indicating, the best moisture is along the Red River and into Oklahoma. There's also more moisture across south-central Texas. It'll be interesting to see if this is a fluke run, or if the other guidance starts to trend in this direction too.

[aggiecutter]

All I know is that the GFS busted big time this morning and today for the Texarkana area. It did OK on the QPF, but busted on the temps, which led to a surprise ice storm for this area. There still some areas of the city without power.

[Portastorm]

The 18Z NAM appears to have a little more snow flurries/virga across northern Texas on Thursday; however, as the models have been indicating, the best moisture is along the Red River and into Oklahoma. There's also more moisture across south-central Texas. It'll be interesting to see if this is a fluke run, or if the other guidance starts to trend in this direction too.

Yeah and the NAM-HIRES shows a little more precip than the other models. EWX mentions this in its afternoon AFD but is dimissing it, for now, as the outlier. Something to keep an eye on I suppose. Snow looks almost impossible for my area of Texas. If anything, it'll be light freezing drizzle. Oh joy.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

All I know is that the GFS busted big time this morning and today for the Texarkana area. It did OK on the QPF, but busted on the temps, which led to a surprise ice storm for this area. There still some areas of the city without power.

Huge bust on temps down here in south LA as well. Supposed to be in the low 70's and we just reached 60. Wxman knows what he is talking about when earlier he mentioned a dreary spring about the cold gulf temps clashing with warmer temps over land keeping everything cool, damp, foggy all day.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Bust on temps here in DFW also. Forecast was 53-54 depending if you are NorthPlex or Southplex. Sitting at 46 by DFW.

[wxman57]

All I know is that the GFS busted big time this morning and today for the Texarkana area. It did OK on the QPF, but busted on the temps, which led to a surprise ice storm for this area. There still some areas of the city without power.

Huge bust on temps down here in south LA as well. Supposed to be in the low 70's and we just reached 60. Wxman knows what he is talking about when earlier he mentioned a dreary spring about the cold gulf temps clashing with warmer temps over land keeping everything cool, damp, foggy all day.

There's a warm front along the LA coast. Temps just across the front are in the low 70s (Patterson, Houma, southern Plaquemines). It's just reached Lafayette to Baton rouge now. Temps are rising behind very quickly south of the warm front. Up to 67 in Lafayette now (was 59 an hour ago). This has no bearing at all on model projections tomorrow/Thursday as we're not predicting the precise location of a sharp warm front.

There's also a warm front just west of Dallas now. Strong westerly winds with temps in the 60s are not far west and southwest of the Metroplex. It's just a question of how far east the warm front advances today. Morning guidance suggested a high in the upper 40s there, which isn't a huge bust. It's all where you get your forecasts...

[Tcu101]

All I know is that the GFS busted big time this morning and today for the Texarkana area. It did OK on the QPF, but busted on the temps, which led to a surprise ice storm for this area. There still some areas of the city without power.

Huge bust on temps down here in south LA as well. Supposed to be in the low 70's and we just reached 60. Wxman knows what he is talking about when earlier he mentioned a dreary spring about the cold gulf temps clashing with warmer temps over land keeping everything cool, damp, foggy all day.

There's a warm front along the LA coast. Temps just across the front are in the low 70s (Patterson, Houma, southern Plaquemines). It's just reached Lafayette to Baton rouge now. Temps are rising behind very quickly south of the warm front. Up to 67 in Lafayette now (was 59 an hour ago). This has no bearing at all on model projections tomorrow/Thursday as we're not predicting the precise location of a sharp warm front.

There's also a warm front just west of Dallas now. Strong westerly winds with temps in the 60s are not far west and southwest of the Metroplex. It's just a question of how far east the warm front advances today. Morning guidance suggested a high in the upper 40s there, which isn't a huge bust. It's all where you get your forecasts...

Am I missing something? I don't see a warm front near DFW? Its 45 to 50 from Abilene to DFW? Even southwest of Fort Worth its in the upper 40's with most stations reporting NW winds. Either way, temps are only 5 degrees or so off where I am located in West Fort Worth so forecast was pretty close

[TheProfessor]

Bust on temps here in DFW also. Forecast was 53-54 depending if you are NorthPlex or Southplex. Sitting at 46 by DFW.

Yeah we only reached 44 here. Nws FWD lowered are highs for tomorrow. Which is supposed to be 26 degrees. if only we could add some moisture to that.

[wxman57]

Well, maybe a tad farther west than you're looking. Have to go SW toward Brownwood and out to San Angelo and westward. West winds 25-35 kts and quite warm temps there. Definitely not a Canadian Polar airmass SW of DFW.

As I take a look back at GFS MOS guidance, the forecast was for mid 40s today in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area since yesterday afternoon. If someone on TV was forecasting low-mid 50s then you need to find another source of temperature forecasts for your area. You can't blame the GFS for a bad forecast and argue that its forecasts for tomorrow/Thursday will bust. It did an excellent job forecasting today's temps in DFW:

GFS MOS Forecast for DFW:
12Z Yesterday - 49
18Z Yesterday - 47
00Z Last Evening - 47
Midnight Last Night - 46
12Z Today - 44

[TarrantWx]

Does anyone have any data on the record number of lows in the teens (or lower) for DFW? I've been here since 1997 and it seems like teens have always been extremely hard to come by for lows. This year they seem almost common place. Here in Tarrant county, the NWS is forecasting two more nights in the teens Wednesday and Thursday night. Just curious if this is anywhere near a record or not.

[Ntxw]

MOS (Mav) has DFW down to the low to mid teens Thursday morning, about 13. NAM Mos says mid to upper teens, about 18. Will depend on little shortwave coming through if it overspreads clouds then 16-19 will be more likely if it's clear then we may push lower. Currently the text output suggest clouds so they may be a tad too cold but teens appear likely Thurs and Friday morning. With more snow cover nearby than the last cold outbreak could see a little colder if conditions are right.

In other news, the daily EPO is now pushing -3SD's below normal.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone have any data on the record number of lows in the teens (or lower) for DFW? I've been here since 1997 and it seems like teens have always been extremely hard to come by for lows. This year they seem almost common place. Here in Tarrant county, the NWS is forecasting two more nights in the teens Wednesday and Thursday night. Just curious if this is anywhere near a record or not.

You are correct, teens have been more of a common place this winter. 2011 is the only year (Feb) that had as many days in the teens thus far the past decade. We will have more by next week. They generally occur once or twice every few years, most likely in the colder El Nino's years since 2002. Before that requires a lot more checking and is not easily accessible but you are right since the super Nino of 97 teens have been harder to come by. What this year differs from the other years the past decade with teens is that they have come in different cold outbreaks breaks vs once with a very cold air mass which hasn't happened since the late 70s.

DFW is also in a single digits drought. The last being 1996 at 8F. On average we should see single digits once every 5 years or so thus it's been 18 years since the last. Once again this occurring after the super nino of 97. Some may say it's global warming, others urban heat island, or even the state of the ocean cycles. Thus whatever the reason we are overdue.

[TarrantWx]

Thanks for your reply Ntxw. I really value your knowledge and expertise. Just to give you a little background on myself, I moved to Texas from Iowa in 1997 at the age of 12. In Iowa, I was lucky enough to have a babysitter whose father was a meteorologist at the NWS in Davenport, IA. I was able to visit the NWS several times a learn a lot. When I moved to Texas, I had a school project that put me in touch with a meteorologist at the NWS in Fort Worth who took me under his wing and helped me further expand my meteorological knowledge. To this day, I regret not majoring in meteorology, but I know that it will always be a lifelong passion. I feel like I have a lot to add and look forward to participating more actively with you all in these forums. And just so you all know, I am definitely in the cold mongerer camp .

[Tcu101]

Bust on temps here in DFW also. Forecast was 53-54 depending if you are NorthPlex or Southplex. Sitting at 46 by DFW.

Yeah we only reached 44 here. Nws FWD lowered are highs for tomorrow. Which is supposed to be 26 degrees. if only we could add some moisture to that.

I noticed that when I clicked on my pinpoint forecast ! YIKES two days without getting out of the 20's

[orangeblood]

Does anyone have any data on the record number of lows in the teens (or lower) for DFW? I've been here since 1997 and it seems like teens have always been extremely hard to come by for lows. This year they seem almost common place. Here in Tarrant county, the NWS is forecasting two more nights in the teens Wednesday and Thursday night. Just curious if this is anywhere near a record or not.

Here you go TarrantWx - it's a link to a pretty comprehensive breakdown of DFW freezes going all the way back to the winter of 1898-1899

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=d32data

[Ntxw]

0z GFS virga and flurries, a little chilly. Model output just how we like them, little thoughts needed.