ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Yup Hurakan, what an amazing looking hurricane, sadly it was so very likely to happen given the heat content...

Not long till landfall, can recon find cat-5 winds before landfall, its going to be tight!

To support Cat 5, I would say that FL winds would need to be at least 153.

[dhweather]

you're wrong Dean.

The cone NOT a dynamic product. it is static based upon 10 year error statistics

Do not use the cone... use the wind probabilities

Better yet, use the NHC guidance. If you are under a hurricane watch, then you are very likely going to experience hurricane conditions in 72 hours.

Remember Charley? People got all mad because it made a turn inland sooner than forecast. Know what? Where Charley came inland was UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING. The people should have been prepared for that. The intensity is a different story with Charley, predicting rapid strengthening is nearly impossible.

[StJoe]

If a picture like this doesn't make you want to run for your life, then I don't know what!

Yes...agreed. And how about this?

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[canegrl04]

Gustav now with MAX SUSTAINED WINDS of 150MPH Hes suppose to now make landfall as a cat 4.I wouldn't be surprised if he grows to 170MPH tops once he hits the very warm pocket of water in the Gulf.

[KWT]

Yep unless a Dropsonde showed winds high enough at the surface crazy....

I think this may do it over the loop current though.

Also this looks like its taken a northward jog over the last 2hrs, wonder if its just stair stepping on a general NW motion.

Can't believe the big easy is once again under threat just 3 years after the 'big one'

[dhweather]

I assure you that the difference in 150 and 155 is trivial at this juncture.

[HURAKAN]

Guanajay and San Felipe are the cities where my close relatives live in Cuba.

[smw1981]

I am really confused right now. Not to sound rude, but I am really not understanding all of this "Texas" talk. I have been coming to this board for 4 years (under a different name until last year), and I have always, always heard that the north eastern quadrant was the worst place to be during a hurricane. In this case, AT THIS TIME, that would be southeast LA and the MGC. Yet in all of these pages I have maybe, maybe seen 1 comment about the impact this storm will have on them (the same area affected by Katrina). Can someone please explain why 100 miles to the west of the projected track is already in evacs and 60 miles to the east is not?

As a long time member of S2k, this is rather frustrating because if central Texas is evacuating, residents along the MGC, Alabama coast and Florida panhandle should also evacuate (since they are all in the cone too, and to the east - the bad side - I might add)...

PS - I live in north Alabama, so this does not affect me at all...just doesn't make sense to me!

Beaumont isn't Central Texas. It's extreme Southeast Texas, near the Tx/La border. A lot of the models are just east of here and many show a westward bend toward the end. A slight shift in the track to the west and we could be under the gun.

Why aren't people from those areas talking about it? I guess there's more people from Texas and Louisiana posting. You're faulting Storm2k because there's not enough people from that area posting messages? I don't quite get it. Naturally, most people are concerned about the potential affects of their areas and the immediate decisions they're having to make. This is a very serious situation. Feel free to post about Alabama, Mississippi, or anywhere else you want.
I, like most of the people here, are just trying to get the best information possible so I can make the best decision for me and my family. Remember, this is an open forum, not an article. Anyone can post about any areas they think are important. I, for one, don't know how in the world Storm2k can possibly try to keep up with which geographical areas may be getting slighted in the number of posts, or what we could do about it.

I believe that s/he was simply asking why are places to East of landfall evacuating now but not points to the West. A very logical question which has nothing to do with S2K or people posting from here or there. I think emotions are getting a little too tight.

Exactly! Thank you...maybe I didn't make myself very clear when asking the first time!

Southerngale - I never said Beaumont (to be honest, I had no idea where that is), but I do know other posters in central Texas that are talking about evacuating, yet places 50-60 miles to the east of the forecasted track (at this time) aren't evaucating yet...

[Extratropical1]

Getting bands of rain through Tampa. Local Mets (abc news) said we wouldnt get bands just a rain increase. So either Gustav is bigger than thought or closer than they thought for effects on TB area.

[mel38]

hurakan did your family evacuate?

[dizzyfish]

Guanajay and San Felipe are the cities were my close relatives live in Cuba.

I will pray that they stay safe HURAKAN.

[alicia83]

HURAKAN

I hope your relatives will be safe! You must be very worried.

[Nexus]

Landfall apparently:

[KWT]

I assure you that the difference in 150 and 155 is trivial at this juncture.

Yeah its so close to cat-5 that the difference really isn't a huge deal, either way your going to get a really dangerous situation for Cuba...

Given how fast it should be over Cuba, matter of a couple of hours...I think the odds are this may well make it to category-5 status in the gulf.

[HURAKAN]

hurakan did your family evacuate?

The house of my grandparents is pretty strong, made of concrete. It should withstand.

In Guanajay lives my aunt and cousin from my mother-side and their houses are pretty good. They survived Charley pretty well. I told them that in case it becomes more severe than expected to use the bathroom which is made entirely of concrete.

I really don't fear for their survival, I fear for that is coming after. During Charley they were without electricity for a month. Food in Cuba is already scarce, imagine after a monster hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, I understand the cone. I've been following weather longer than most of you have been alive...40yrs. I'm saying in this situation with this big/strong a storm this is a product that needs to be adjusted, it will be confusing to SOME people who tomorrow get up and look at a newspaper and see they are not in the cone. It is that simple a point that I am making. There are people out there who don't follow the weather or the graphic meanings like any of us do.

[KWT]

Nexus, the eye looks just offshore, thats the sloping effect of the eyewall I think from the looks of things. Still landfall looks anytime soon.

[Sanibel]

Close to saying the steering high is solid and tracking Gus close enough to NHC track to say it is accurate. The only thing I can think of is a category 5 possibly making its own environment. I'm sure the board will be actively watching the evolving synoptic when this gets in the Gulf tomorrow.

Close enough to Innotech and Lafayette to say they should start treating it as coming there.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[MBryant]

I was just thinking how oxymoronic a 'minimal Category Five' would be.

[Ivanhater]