Global model runs discussion

[Hammy]

I'll add my two cents here as far as the models and dry air, from what I'm seeing it is similar to 1998-2000 (mind you, we likely won't see that level of activity though given other factors that were present that aren't this year) in that, as per models, there will be a nice concentration of convection off of Africa while mostly everything west is dry. Most years have a dry period in middle August, and the models are continuing to show the wave activity picking up in about two weeks. The fact that the GFS isn't showing anything is not an indication that nothing will form, given that last year it was continually forecasting things that never happened, and it appears to have been tuned in a similar manner to the Euro, where it picks up the waves but doesn't develop them until the timeframe is closer, Both models do show two significant waves coming off in the next ten days.

[GeneratorPower]

I just looked at the East Atlantic (Africa) AVN satellite. The one with the 6-hour updates found here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html.

One thing that's clear is a lot of moisture is currently over Africa and due to exit into the MDR next week. That's got to help the situation as far as the dryness.

[gatorcane]

The GFS model is showing a strong wave with attached low in the long-range moving off Africa and heading west over the MDR around Aug 20th. I know it's long range but the long-range CFS model has quite consistently showed something near the Cape Verde islands around this time plus the GFS has support from the ECMWF.

Today's GFS model summary for when this low moves off Africa:

GFS 00Z: 264 hours
GFS 06Z: 300 hours
GFS 12Z: 264 hours
GFS 18Z: 240 hours

Let' see if it starts bringing the timeframe in on future runs which would mean this will be an area to watch in the third week of August.

GFS 18Z 240 hours:


12Z ECMWF 216 hours:

[CFLHurricane]

I just looked at the East Atlantic (Africa) AVN satellite. The one with the 6-hour updates found here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html.

One thing that's clear is a lot of moisture is currently over Africa and due to exit into the MDR next week. That's got to help the situation as far as the dryness.

And we'll still hear about how it's dryer than the Atacama Desert out there!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Geesh, the dirt hasn't even settled on *Hurricane* Bertha's grave and you guys are already back at it canceling the season. Anyway... This is a thread for discussing the model runs. Go find one of the other threads to have this discussion in. A moderator already warned about this the last time you guys were canceling the season in this thread - it was right before Bertha formed.

Or we could just spout off about climatology and say it looks like the lid is about to come off in two ,three, no wait four weeks cause one model run says so. I did mention the model runs and they are showing another front and trough next week. So yes until something does change things close home will continue to be dead and could very well be a season cancel.

[ninel conde]

JB sounds the alarm!!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

Pattern in the atlantic will grow more favorable now. Summer coming for last 1-2 weeks August in east, tropics get more active

[TheStormExpert]

JB sounds the alarm!!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

Pattern in the atlantic will grow more favorable now. Summer coming for last 1-2 weeks August in east, tropics get more active

So once Joe Bastardi sounds the alarm your on board.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I sure hope ninel isn't foolish enough to fall for his hype.

[TheStormExpert]

I sure hope ninel isn't foolish enough to fall for his hype.

It seems in the past that when Joe B. hypes something the opposite sometimes happens.

[ninel conde]

I sure hope ninel isn't foolish enough to fall for his hype.

im not, but it might make others more optimistic. conditions still seem horrid to me.

[tropicwatch]

Well the shear in the Caribbean has settle down a bit. It is seeing 10-2kts instead of the 30,40 or 50kts that there has been recently.

[Hyperstorm]

Have you guys noticed the HUGE ridge of high pressure that the GFS is forecasting to develop off the East Coast by August 20th? That ridge could have huge implications on the future tropical storm tracks. It's been a rare occurrence this summer and it couldn't have come at a worst time. Yikes!

[tolakram]

I'd like to remind everyone that this is the GLOBAL MODELS THREAD.

If you feel like posting a short comment on how you think the season will progress please take it to another thread and leave this one for discussion of model runs.

[gatorcane]

Have you guys noticed the HUGE ridge of high pressure that the GFS is forecasting to develop off the East Coast by August 20th? That ridge could have huge implications on the future tropical storm tracks. It's been a rare occurrence this summer and it couldn't have come at a worst time. Yikes!

Yeah I have noticed this. The ECMWF is not showing such a strong ridge out through 240 hours though so we will see what happens. Definitely something to watch as we head towards the climatological peak.

[Hurricaneman]

The last few runs of the GFS seem to break off a frontal trough in the central Atlantic and now the 6z seems to form a tropical storm from it and send it towards the east coast so this may be something to watch since the frontal trough seems to break off at about 168hrs or so on this run

[blp]

Well the 12z GFS finally showing a hurricane in the MDR. It seems like ages ago since I last saw that on a run. Sign that things are coming back to normal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014081112/gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics_43.png

[gatorcane]

Look how that GFS run ends:



and there is a ridge off to the NW:

[Yellow Evan]

Using full res, a 972 mbar hurricane.

[Hurricaneman]

Using full res, a 972 mbar hurricane.

I believe this 384 hr hurricane is pouch 017L

[Riptide]

The 500mb setup looks like the 1933 Potomac Hurricane, holy smokes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Chesa ... _hurricane