ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[soonertwister]

This dramatic change in projected arrival time for Gustav is really going to be a problem. I'll bet you that there are going to be a lot of stragglers that won't be hitting the roads until after 9 am tomorrow, less than 30 hours from projected landfall.

Roads will be jammed, progress will be slow. And the weather will just keep getting worse and worse all day long.

If you are planning on leaving, I wouldn't wait any longer. It's not worth the risk.

[Ixolib]

People that line in the area from the mouth of the Mississippi to Pass Christian know they are prone to huge storm surges due to the geography of the area. Once the SE winds start pushing water up in the area, the only place it can go is inland.

Hey DH - Good to see you again!! Been wondering where you've been but Hurrycane filled us in.

Let's not forget those east of PC who too (self included!!) found out what a huge storm surge can do. I was really hoping Katrina was a once-in-a-lifetime event - at least for our neck of the woods. Let's hope this isn't a repeat.......... Don't think most (again, self included) on the MGC could stand another this soon.

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

There is your steering currents...BTW, that hasn't really changed in the last 6-10 hours....

[rockyman]

Folks, I understand the cone. I've been following weather longer than most of you have been alive...40yrs. I'm saying in this situation with this big/strong a storm this is a product that needs to be adjusted, it will be confusing to SOME people who tomorrow get up and look at a newspaper and see they are not in the cone. It is that simple a point that I am making. There are people out there who don't follow the weather or the graphic meanings like any of us do.

I understand what you are saying...I think maybe instead of the NHC adjusting this cone (which is based on statistical error), the news organizations should possibly use the wind speed probability map IN ADDITION to the landfall cone. The wind speed probability is almost always skewed to the right, since the strongest winds extend outward from the center more to the right than to the left.

[KWT]

Looks like this has taken a decent wobble to the NNW in the last hour, steering currents suggests this is probably still feeling the weakness but the track should shift back to a NW heading soon and stay on that sort of heading, but the trend slightly east is very bad for N.O.

[HouTXmetro]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

There is your steering currents...BTW, that hasn't really changed in the last 6-10 hours....

High is slowly moving East

[smw1981]

I'm not arguing the Watch, I'm arguing the fact that the WHOLE Alabama Coastline is outside the 3 DAY CONE.

If the hurricane force winds are wider than the cone, then you will have watches outside the cone. Pretty simple.

According to this "cone", the Alabama coastline is in the cone. I think this is from an hour ago or so.... Hopefully though, if they are under a Hurricane Watch, the people there will see that and not even worry about the "cone". We all know how that goes though..

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

There is your steering currents...BTW, that hasn't really changed in the last 6-10 hours....

High is slowly moving East

Not much...I went back to 00z last night and the eastern progression was not that much of a difference.... Oh, the ridge over the bahamas has not built back W or NW that quickly either...

[HurryKane]

Yet in all of these pages I have maybe, maybe seen 1 comment about the impact this storm will have on them (the same area affected by Katrina). Can someone please explain why 100 miles to the west of the projected track is already in evacs and 60 miles to the east is not?

I boarded up and got the heck out of dodge on Thursday (happened to already have a Labor Day trip north planned). Hancock and Harrison counties in MS have requested at least evacs of specific flood areas and FEMA trailers/cottages, and NOLA is already getting people out. Last I saw, contraflow was to start in MS on Sunday morning. Maybe we're all just too busy fleeing to post

[KWT]

Yep HouTXmetro and that high should slowly reduce these northerly wobbles we are seeing and put it back on a mainly NW trend.

[micktooth]

Looks like this has taken a decent wobble to the NNW in the last hour, steering currents suggests this is probably still feeling the weakness but the track should shift back to a NW heading soon and stay on that sort of heading, but the trend slightly east is very bad for N.O.

I agree, I know not to wobble watch, but every small jog now, can result in a several mile jog at final landfall. It does appear that Gustav is slightly east of the latest model runs.

[KWT]

Looks like this has taken a decent wobble to the NNW in the last hour, steering currents suggests this is probably still feeling the weakness but the track should shift back to a NW heading soon and stay on that sort of heading, but the trend slightly east is very bad for N.O.

I agree, I know not to wobble watch, but every small jog now, can result in a several mile jog at final landfall. It does appear that Gustav is slightly east of the latest model runs.

for somewhere like N.O it makes a big differnece, becuas every little shift to the right this system takes, even for only an hour or two will ultimatly lead this to be a bigger N.O threat and I don't know whether they can handle another cat-3/4 like Katrina again...

[Nederlander]

Gus is definitely staying a tad east of where I expected at this point.. seems like a lot of factors are left to consider even though the models are in decent agreement.. hard to say when that WNW turn will happen, hopefully after landfall so that surge and flooding is somewhat limited...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like this has taken a decent wobble to the NNW in the last hour, steering currents suggests this is probably still feeling the weakness but the track should shift back to a NW heading soon and stay on that sort of heading, but the trend slightly east is very bad for N.O.

This wobble watching and N.O. is doomed talk is really getting ridiculous.
What is the point of all of it? The NHC will nail the track on this one and
you'll wonder why you posted so many wobble posts.

[Brent]

Eye is starting to make landfall, should be in the Gulf in 2-3 hours.

[Ola]

I was just thinking how oxymoronic a 'minimal Category Five' would be.

= weak category 5

[soonertwister]

Check out the surge map for the central gulf coast:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml

It's a little intimidating, but I wish they'd show the probabilistic heights of the surge rather than the percentage chance of surge greater than five feet...

[RainWind]

Will it take 6-8 hours to cross Cuba? After that, will in be considered in the Gulf? RW

[Just Joshing You]

If a picture like this doesn't make you want to run for your life, then I don't know what!

It has a heart shaped eye.. he just wants Love..