ATL: IRMA - Models

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tgenius
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7161 Postby tgenius » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

that path would keep the storm away from mainland SFL, assuming it doesn't hook straight north and pull a Donna.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7162 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

144: Ouch, Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7163 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:120. Well SW of GFS:

Image

This makes NOLA nervous...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7164 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

hello gom...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7165 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

Just SE of Key West at 132 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7166 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:28 pm

Over, or just off of the SW FL coast at 144 hours, per InstantWeatherMaps
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7167 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:29 pm

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7168 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:29 pm

TT is stuck at 96hrs FWIW.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7169 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:29 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

Not too many mountains on that side. Would weaken a bit but not shred it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7170 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:30 pm

Just when I thought we were getting model consensus. That's a pretty big change from the Euro. Ensembles should be interesting.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7171 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:30 pm

Ken711 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

Image


That's an amazing projection that far out.


I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything! :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7172 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:31 pm

hour 144:

Image
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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7173 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:31 pm

Gator,

It is well SW of the Operational GFS but just a hair south of the GEFS Ensembles at 120.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=73

GEPS aggregate comes up to the Big Bend more or less, so the 12Z GFS Ensembles (at least as presented on Tropical Tidbits) are closer to the EC and NHC than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

It ain't much, but I threw Levi a $25.00 donation for the good work he does and the model links he provides that some of the better sources don't have or present as quickly. I'm sure if a few more people gave a few dollars, it would help him out. If you're on this thread, you use his model outputs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7174 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:31 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Cuba would take a big bite out of it...


I'm not so sure about that, Euro shows little to no weakening over Cuba, part of that is likely due to Irma's large circulation and the relative flatlands of central Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7175 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:31 pm

Donna take 2
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7176 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm



Landfall around Cape Coral/Bonita Springs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7177 Postby southwest southerner » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm

models appear to be shifting further and further west...isn't this what Ike did?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7178 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm

The question is how is euro treating upper low and ridge pressure that sends it to gulf?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7179 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm

Probably wealenbto a cat 2 or strong cat1 after leaving Cuba, but can gain some of that strength back before next landfall
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7180 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:32 pm

Landfalls in SW FL at near cat 5 intensity
Image
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