CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gerrit]

Dean's eye now visible on Netherland Antilles radar.

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

NWS San Juan has a better image

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... Z&loop=yes

[mgpetre]

[quote="Extremeweatherguy] Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is[/quote] I disagree with it being "dead on". It had Dean just west of the islands at 8am on Saturday...but currently at 10pm on FRIDAY it is near the 15N latitude line south of Puerto Rico. That means the original path was way too slow and too far north. Sure, it was a good forecast, but it certainly was not a great one.[/quote]


So now slow means further South though, are we beginning to see that the variables in this particular instance are just to complex in comparison to some of the storms of the past where a stron trough or high really dictated what was going to happen?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Dean has resumed a more WNW motion: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

Is that the correct link? It still looks due West on that link. Maybe it is old???

[ConvergenceZone]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

Sorry but you are acting very foolish. Models have not been trending at all. Just because one run of models goes south hardly means they are trending south. Not a single person in the world can say anything exact about where this storm is heading. And I feel that some of your comments may be disrespectful to Mexicans. Point is, models go up and down, up and down, and will continue. Who knows, by morning the forecast could be anywhere from Tampico to Lafeyette.

Well, if anything I think it's more disrespetful NOT to mention Mexico. It seems like most here either mention LA, Texas or Florida...Very few people on here are even mentioning Mexico even though several models have it pointed in that direction. That's what I don't get...If I lived in Mexico, I'd be hollering "geez folks, what about us???".........

[fasterdisaster]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

Sorry but you are acting very foolish. Models have not been trending at all. Just because one run of models goes south hardly means they are trending south. Not a single person in the world can say anything exact about where this storm is heading. And I feel that some of your comments may be disrespectful to Mexicans. Point is, models go up and down, up and down, and will continue. Who knows, by morning the forecast could be anywhere from Tampico to Lafeyette.

How in the hell is this disrpespectful to Mexicans? Where in the hell did you get that from? You're warped. All I've said is the stomr appears to be going to Mexico.

Please calm down. I was not accusing you of purposefully disrespecting anybody, I was merely making an aside comment that some people could be offended by thinking you were being fairly apathetic to the trouble Mexico might go through. I'm not accusing anyone here, just don't want feelings hurt.

[mgpetre]

Although I've noticed no one is willing to commit to a landfall and no one wants to scare anyone (which I by no means do either), I am going to make my wrong prediction now... despite the fact that without a Houston/Galveston landfall my wife will forever think I'm crazy for worrying about this thing so much, I believe Dean is going to hit the US about 20 miles south of Corpus as a Cat 3. Just my prediction...

Now, while I'm here. Can someone give me a little information as to how much actual data is put into the models? Is it a pressure gradient mostly? Are water vapor synoptics also considered? Is it a glogal model that includes the push from storms on the other side of the world? I know it's the whole "butterfly effect" thing going on to some extent, just curious as to how complete the data models are for these initializations. I was a chemical engineer at one point and know that in a closed system you have to include everything to get any idea as to what's really going to happen and the earth is a fairly closed system (the day we start inputting data about solar flares into hurricane modelling is the day I'll be very confident in the models.) Just curious, because I know very little about the complexities of these things.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dean has resumed a more WNW motion: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

Is that the correct link? It still looks due West on that link. Maybe it is old???

I think I was seeing an old image or something? I don't know. It does look west though when I clicked back on my own link. hmm. I guess I will delete it then.

[ExBailbonds]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.

Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is

I disagree with it being "dead on". It had Dean just west of the islands at 8am on Saturday...but currently at 10pm on FRIDAY it is near the 15N latitude line south of Puerto Rico. That means the original path was way too slow and too far north. Sure, it was a good forecast, but it certainly was not a great one.

Look i said just abought dead on. The point i am trying to make is if your in a area that that cone is pointing you had better pay close attencion

[CrazyC83]

562
URNT15 KNHC 180321
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 33 20070818
031030 1512N 06625W 6965 03066 9948 +094 +094 052077 078 063 001 00
031100 1513N 06626W 6967 03072 9954 +092 +092 052077 078 063 002 00
031130 1513N 06626W 6967 03072 9966 +088 +088 052076 077 063 002 00
031200 1516N 06628W 6961 03085 9966 +093 +092 054075 076 062 003 00
031230 1517N 06629W 6969 03083 9973 +092 +092 049073 077 062 002 00
031300 1518N 06630W 6968 03088 9979 +090 +090 048071 072 061 003 00
031330 1519N 06631W 6965 03097 9977 +094 +094 047070 071 061 004 00
031400 1520N 06632W 6963 03100 9982 +092 +092 050070 071 061 004 00
031430 1522N 06634W 6969 03097 9996 +085 +085 053068 069 061 004 00
031500 1522N 06634W 6969 03097 9999 +085 +085 053066 068 060 005 03
031530 1524N 06636W 6967 03102 0003 +084 +084 054064 064 061 004 00
031600 1525N 06637W 6967 03107 0019 +076 +076 059069 070 060 006 00
031630 1526N 06639W 6967 03114 0012 +085 +085 057066 068 057 012 00
031700 1527N 06640W 6967 03113 0011 +088 +088 055065 069 057 007 00
031730 1529N 06642W 6966 03121 0014 +089 +089 058060 062 057 005 00
031800 1530N 06643W 6965 03124 0016 +090 +090 056056 057 056 002 00
031830 1531N 06644W 6968 03122 0020 +089 +089 057057 058 055 002 00
031900 1533N 06645W 6969 03123 0026 +087 +087 057058 060 055 002 00
031930 1533N 06645W 6969 03123 0029 +087 +087 058058 058 055 004 00
032000 1536N 06646W 6968 03131 0034 +084 +084 059057 057 054 004 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

562
URNT15 KNHC 180321
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 33 20070818
031030 1512N 06625W 6965 03066 9948 +094 +094 052077 078 063 001 00
031100 1513N 06626W 6967 03072 9954 +092 +092 052077 078 063 002 00
031130 1513N 06626W 6967 03072 9966 +088 +088 052076 077 063 002 00
031200 1516N 06628W 6961 03085 9966 +093 +092 054075 076 062 003 00
031230 1517N 06629W 6969 03083 9973 +092 +092 049073 077 062 002 00
031300 1518N 06630W 6968 03088 9979 +090 +090 048071 072 061 003 00
031330 1519N 06631W 6965 03097 9977 +094 +094 047070 071 061 004 00
031400 1520N 06632W 6963 03100 9982 +092 +092 050070 071 061 004 00
031430 1522N 06634W 6969 03097 9996 +085 +085 053068 069 061 004 00
031500 1522N 06634W 6969 03097 9999 +085 +085 053066 068 060 005 03
031530 1524N 06636W 6967 03102 0003 +084 +084 054064 064 061 004 00
031600 1525N 06637W 6967 03107 0019 +076 +076 059069 070 060 006 00
031630 1526N 06639W 6967 03114 0012 +085 +085 057066 068 057 012 00
031700 1527N 06640W 6967 03113 0011 +088 +088 055065 069 057 007 00
031730 1529N 06642W 6966 03121 0014 +089 +089 058060 062 057 005 00
031800 1530N 06643W 6965 03124 0016 +090 +090 056056 057 056 002 00
031830 1531N 06644W 6968 03122 0020 +089 +089 057057 058 055 002 00
031900 1533N 06645W 6969 03123 0026 +087 +087 057058 060 055 002 00
031930 1533N 06645W 6969 03123 0029 +087 +087 058058 058 055 004 00
032000 1536N 06646W 6968 03131 0034 +084 +084 059057 057 054 004 00
$$

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 03:21Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 33
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:10:30 15.20N 66.42W 696.5 mb 3,066 m 994.8 mb From 52° (NE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 63 kts 1 mm/hr
03:11:00 15.22N 66.43W 696.7 mb 3,072 m 995.4 mb From 52° (NE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 63 kts 2 mm/hr
03:11:30 15.22N 66.43W 696.7 mb 3,072 m 996.6 mb From 52° (NE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 63 kts 2 mm/hr
03:12:00 15.27N 66.47W 696.1 mb 3,085 m 996.6 mb From 54° (NE) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 62 kts 3 mm/hr
03:12:30 15.28N 66.48W 696.9 mb 3,083 m 997.3 mb From 49° (NE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 62 kts 2 mm/hr
03:13:00 15.30N 66.50W 696.8 mb 3,088 m 997.9 mb From 48° (NE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 61 kts 3 mm/hr
03:13:30 15.32N 66.52W 696.5 mb 3,097 m 997.7 mb From 47° (NE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 61 kts 4 mm/hr
03:14:00 15.33N 66.53W 696.3 mb 3,100 m 998.2 mb From 50° (NE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 61 kts 4 mm/hr
03:14:30 15.37N 66.57W 696.9 mb 3,097 m 999.6 mb From 53° (NE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 61 kts 4 mm/hr
03:15:00 15.37N 66.57W 696.9 mb 3,097 m 999.9 mb From 53° (NE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 60 kts* 5 mm/hr*
03:15:30 15.40N 66.60W 696.7 mb 3,102 m 1000.3 mb From 54° (NE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 61 kts 4 mm/hr
03:16:00 15.42N 66.62W 696.7 mb 3,107 m 1001.9 mb From 59° (ENE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 60 kts 6 mm/hr
03:16:30 15.43N 66.65W 696.7 mb 3,114 m 1001.2 mb From 57° (ENE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 57 kts 12 mm/hr
03:17:00 15.45N 66.67W 696.7 mb 3,113 m 1001.1 mb From 55° (NE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 57 kts 7 mm/hr
03:17:30 15.48N 66.70W 696.6 mb 3,121 m 1001.4 mb From 58° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 57 kts 5 mm/hr
03:18:00 15.50N 66.72W 696.5 mb 3,124 m 1001.6 mb From 56° (NE/ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 56 kts 2 mm/hr
03:18:30 15.52N 66.73W 696.8 mb 3,122 m 1002.0 mb From 57° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 55 kts 2 mm/hr
03:19:00 15.55N 66.75W 696.9 mb 3,123 m 1002.6 mb From 57° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 55 kts 2 mm/hr
03:19:30 15.55N 66.75W 696.9 mb 3,123 m 1002.9 mb From 58° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 55 kts 4 mm/hr
03:20:00 15.60N 66.77W 696.8 mb 3,131 m 1003.4 mb From 59° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 54 kts 4 mm/hr
At 03:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 223 miles (360 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 03:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 200 miles (322 km) to the SSW (194°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .75c-66.77

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[mf_dolphin]

Like the earlier thread for the eastern Carib, this thread is for those in the above threatened areas and our ProMets. Let's keep this clean so those that need the information can find it quickly. Thanks!

[Praxus]

Can the typical shelter in Jamaica and Mexico even stand up to cat 5 winds? Over 160 mph winds (like yucatan is expecting) seems a lot - even for schools etc which are typically used as shelters.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Dean has resumed a more WNW motion: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

Is that the correct link? It still looks due West on that link. Maybe it is old???

I think I was seeing an old image or something? I don't know. It does look west though when I clicked back on my own link. hmm. I guess I will delete it then.

No. Don't delete it please...the more views we have the better!!

[jacindc]

Boy, sometimes I wish everyone on this board could stipulate:

1. Someone wishing a storm away from their location does not mean they are wishing harm on people who live in the desired alternate path; and

2. We're all praying/hoping for the best for whoever's in the path, wherever the path may be, CONUS or not.

These two items would go a long way to quieting the inevitable "you're mean! You hate Mexico!" everytime someone wishes Dean away from Texas without qualifying it by saying "But OF COURSE I would NEVER want ANYONE in Mexico to get hurt, and I pray hourly for their safety...."

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS should start coming out at any minute. Should be interesting to see if it stays as far south as the crazy 18z run (which basically turns Dean into a Pacific storm), or if it trends back further north.

[KBBOCA]

One last post from Storm Carib before I call it a night. Gert, the no-nonsense webmaster who runs Storm Carib and who is a true caribbean hurricane veteran is invoking a lot of "famous names" tonight. Check this out.
---------

In any case, for Jamaica, Cayman, and the Yucatan it doesn't look good at all. Dean has now a 'nice' eye. I guess I am just going to blurt out some names to wake any people up who might be still thinking that this will 'blow over'. Gilbert for Jamaica, Ivan for Cayman, Wilma for Cozumel/Cancun, Mitch for Belize... Dean is a Category 4 already and it is going to strengthen more! Also the people in Hispaniola should take note. Luckily this is a fast moving storm, so the flooding shouldn't be as much of a problem as 'normally' in Haiti/Dominican Republic. Really people, watch out for this one!

[mgpetre]

Can the typical shelter in Jamaica and Mexico even stand up to cat 5 winds? Over 160 mph winds, especially for the yucatan, seems a lot - even for schools etc which are typically used as shelters.

Good question... I don't think anyone realizes (outside of the types that watch this board or TWC religiously) how historic this storm may be. I really wish I hadn't moved to the coast this year. I pray for Jamaica, it's such a really laid back great country.

[HarlequinBoy]

How much has the Yucatan recovered from Hurricane Wilma in 2005?

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS run beginning...

00 hr. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[Ixolib]

Just in case anyone's interested in listening to live (hopefully) radio. It was amazing to listen to this station during Ivan in '04... A remarkable people, those Jamaicans!!
http://go-jamaica.com/power/