Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

Hmmm still looks like its going to get very close to DR, enough possibly to stall development probably.

[txag2005]

Looks the models are pretty much in agreement of a Florida or East Coast landfall.

[Bocadude85]

Intresting the nogaps now shows landfall in Florida........

[ronjon]

Well, yesterday I was sold on no east coast recurvature north. Today I'm still there but hedging my bets. The biggest wrinkle in todays global models was a delay in rebuilding the ridge westward and its strength. That delay is allowing 92L to turn rather sharply N-NW for about 24-36 hrs as it nears eastern Cuba or the central Bahamas. What is interesting is that the ridge is only delayed from building in - so, what we might see is the N-NW turn and then a slowing and turn toward the west at some latitude from S to Cent FL. Looking at recent trends, the 18Z GFDL moved a little west of its 12Z run, the 18Z NOGAPs moved a couple of hundred miles west, and the 18Z HWRF pushes the storm south of Cuba and finally heading NW south of the upper keys. Long story short - we won't know with any certainty, maybe not until 48-72 hrs away. Especially since there is no strong trough to move it and weak steering fields. Plus the angle that the storm will approach the peninsula may make it very difficult to pinpoint a LF.

[jlauderdal]

No idea why wxman doesnt put in models suck as the Euro, gfs , cmc and others and leaves lbar and bams(which I thought shouldnt be used outside the deep tropics) I think it would be better to include all of them to get the whole picture but anyways...GFS shoots it ssw and back into SF after building the ridge back in..

Link to GFS please?

By the way, now that GFDL and UKMET as well as BAM models show recurvature or Carolina impact, I believe that GFS will show the same trend in its next run...looks like Florida might be spared if this holds true

Confucius learned many moons ago:

1. Dont take one model run as the bible, you need consistency from run to run

2. 5 days out the error is hundreds of miles so if it says carolina at 5 days it will probably not hit carolina in 5 days

3. Small track deviations now have huge track implications down the road, think geometry

4. Dont be a wobble weenie and hang on every frame of satellite loops, tropical systems and the stock market dont travel in straight lines, look at trend lines instead

5. When looking at internet forums be aware of posters location and look for trends as to their prediction of track

6. Intensity forecasting at NHC is a mystery by their own admission, imagine what it is on the internet, something like voodo

7. Put confucious above rules in hip pocket and save your sanity as we really get into the heart of the season

8. There is some really good info available here and elsewhere but make sure you learn to cut through the noise

[Javlin]

I thought that the 00Z and 12z models were the ones with all the pertient data ingested into them?

[stormchazer]

Lets look at the good news here. The fuirst target the models point at usually do not get it in the end. Of course this statement is based on no forecast reasoning what so ever.

Seriously, it looks like the typical forecast game. Timing is everything and there always seems to be a wrinkle at the end. Will the High build and when? Will there be an escape hatch? This is why we watch!

[gtsmith]

3. Small track deviations now have huge track implications down the road, think geometry

aahhh...think Chaos theory...small changes in initial conditions produce large variations in final results.

[stormchazer]

3. Small track deviations now have huge track implications down the road, think geometry

aahhh...think Chaos theory...small changes in initial conditions produce large variations in final results.

Thank you Dr Malcomb! (Silly Jurassic Park reference)

[Javlin]

[quote="stormchazer"]Lets look at the good news here. The first target the models point at usually do not get it in the end.

This all to true.I rather be the guy with beeline 5 days out than the one at 3 days for sure.

[jlauderdal]

Lets look at the good news here. The first target the models point at usually do not get it in the end.

This all to true.I rather be the guy with beeline 5 days out than the one at 3 days for sure.

nhc is very good within 72 so if you have a target on your head in that time frame, be ready and dont try and fine tune it

[GreenSky]

No idea why wxman doesnt put in models suck as the Euro, gfs , cmc and others and leaves lbar and bams(which I thought shouldnt be used outside the deep tropics) I think it would be better to include all of them to get the whole picture but anyways...GFS shoots it ssw and back into SF after building the ridge back in..

Link to GFS please?

By the way, now that GFDL and UKMET as well as BAM models show recurvature or Carolina impact, I believe that GFS will show the same trend in its next run...looks like Florida might be spared if this holds true

Confucius learned many moons ago:

1. Dont take one model run as the bible, you need consistency from run to run

2. 5 days out the error is hundreds of miles so if it says carolina at 5 days it will probably not hit carolina in 5 days

3. Small track deviations now have huge track implications down the road, think geometry

4. Dont be a wobble weenie and hang on every frame of satellite loops, tropical systems and the stock market dont travel in straight lines, look at trend lines instead

5. When looking at internet forums be aware of posters location and look for trends as to their prediction of track

6. Intensity forecasting at NHC is a mystery by their own admission, imagine what it is on the internet, something like voodo

7. Put confucious above rules in hip pocket and save your sanity as we really get into the heart of the season

8. There is some really good info available here and elsewhere but make sure you learn to cut through the noise

Thanks for the insight! I love number 5, LOL

[tolakram]

So this thing is coming to Cincinnati, I just know it. Right?

[GreenSky]

18z GFDL has a cat 3 just east of Florida Penninsula.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Nasty scenario! If the GFDL were to play out, then the east coast would be battered by waves and squalls all day on Monday lasting into Tuesday. Also, any deviation further west would be absolutely horrible for the sunshine state.

Nonetheless, isn't it encouraging that some of the models are finally showing a weakening ridge? Before they all (including GFDL) were indicating the lasting presence of what some would call a "monster ridge"....now they might be seeing differently as wxman57 pointed out...weaker steering currents might mean a Carolina landfall or even better a fish!

[blp]

18 Z Nogaps now has a direct hit on SE Florida


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=144

Since when did the FNMOC start showing the 18Z & 06Z runs on there site. I could have sworn that they used to have only the 00z & 12z runs. That is great to see.

[HURAKAN]

If this plays out, it's going to be ugly.

[BigB0882]

This one had me nervous here in Louisiana yesterday but today it seems to be more of a threat to the East. Of course it is still very early and anything can happen. This should be a fun one to watch.

[MiamiensisWx]

Nonetheless, isn't it encouraging that some of the models are finally showing a weakening ridge? Before they all (including GFDL) were indicating the lasting presence of what some would call a "monster ridge"....now they might be seeing differently as wxman57 pointed out...weaker steering currents might mean a Carolina landfall or even better a fish!

Huh?

You should expediently review the wise sayings posted by jlauderdal...

By the way, I don't believe "amateur meteorologists" technically exist.

I apologize if I sound harsh, but I digress with your approach. Personally, I don't believe you can leave Florida off the hook.

As I personally anticipated, several models have shifted farther southwest this evening at 18Z, though there are numerous uncertainties.

[RL3AO]

Those southern tracks go right over Hispaniola. We all know you only need a tropical wave to cause problems, especially in Haiti.

[Recurve]

Nonetheless, isn't it encouraging that some of the models are finally showing a weakening ridge? Before they all (including GFDL) were indicating the lasting presence of what some would call a "monster ridge"....now they might be seeing differently as wxman57 pointed out...weaker steering currents might mean a Carolina landfall or even better a fish!

Huh?

You should expediently review the wise sayings posted by jlauderdal...

By the way, I don't believe "amateur meteorologists" technically exist.

Don't know about assigned reading...but GreenSky you make a valid point. The northern curve has been evident for a day or longer now, first it was just a bend at the end, now we see it more evident. Timing will be everything, but from where it is now, only a deep high is going to track it almost straight west into or across FL, and some weakness will let it escape, which is good news for me, possibly bad for the Carolinas.

[fixed typo]