WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

#721 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 6:47 am

ClarkEligue wrote:16.1 135.7 NOW

It was 16.2 awhile ago...it moved a little bit WSW

dexterlabio · #722 Postby **dexterlabio** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 6:48 am

ClarkEligue wrote:16.1 135.7 NOW

where did you get that? jtwc is not yet releasing their latest satfix bulletin, or maybe something's wrong with my net connection...

JTE50 · #723 Postby **JTE50** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:04 am

dexterlabio wrote:
ClarkEligue wrote:16.1 135.7 NOW

where did you get that? jtwc is not yet releasing their latest satfix bulletin, or maybe something's wrong with my net connection...

last JTWC fix I had was 16.2 136.9 Advisory #10 28/0600

#724 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:05 am

Well,SSD dvorak has it at 16.3N.

28/0830 UTC 16.3N 136.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific

dexterlabio · #725 Postby **dexterlabio** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:08 am

oh. so they are not yet issuing latest satfix. i think that was about 2 hours ago. well, mirinae seems to be only tracking westward.

#726 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:19 am

Is there any good news is that it is not going thru RI at this time as the eye was open to the NE side per pic that our friend HURAKAN posted earlier.

Macrocane · #727 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:24 am

It doesn't look like it's intensifying rapidly but it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains, so even if it is not a major typhoon at landfall (and certainly it may be) it will be dangerous.

#728 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:26 am

Macrocane wrote:It doesn't look like it's intensifying rapidly but it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains, so even if it is not a major typhoon at landfall (and certainly it may be) it will be dangerous.

Ahhh rains................If it brings heavy rains, we're in big trouble.........

#729 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:28 am

Latest

metenthusiast · #730 Postby **metenthusiast** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:32 am

ricmood wrote:
oaba09 wrote:
ricmood wrote:Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

As good as that sounds, it seems impossible because MIRINAE has already hit the STR and it's still moving westwards at a fast speed............

Oh, maybe deeper in the STR. Still don't want to lose hope.

I really hate to douse cold water on this but I guess it's not probable at the moment. All the options you noted are being blocked by an STR (orange regions in the east and south of the system)

metenthusiast · #731 Postby **metenthusiast** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:34 am

Macrocane wrote:It doesn't look like it's intensifying rapidly but it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains, so even if it is not a major typhoon at landfall (and certainly it may be) it will be dangerous.

Correct. Remember that the past two weather systems that devastated Luzon were only tropical storms when they made landfall (Ketsana and Parma)

Weather_boi · #732 Postby **Weather_boi** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:37 am

ricmood wrote:Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

#733 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:43 am

TPPN10 PGTW 281209

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 28/1130Z

C. 16.4N

D. 135.4E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CONVECTION WRAPS 1.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

SMITH

#734 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:44 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 15.6N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 311200UTC 15.9N 120.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

#735 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:48 am

P.K. wrote:WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 15.6N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 311200UTC 15.9N 120.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Latest forecast track from the JMA 12 UTC warning.

metenthusiast · #736 Postby **metenthusiast** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:51 am

cycloneye wrote:
P.K. wrote:WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 15.6N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 311200UTC 15.9N 120.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Latest forecast track from the 12 UTC warning.

JMA brought down their forecast track? :roll:

#737 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 7:53 am

metenthusiast wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
P.K. wrote:WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 130.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 15.6N 125.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 311200UTC 15.9N 120.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Latest forecast track from the 12 UTC warning.

JMA brought down their forecast track?

Makes sense actually......

JTE50 · #738 Postby **JTE50** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:06 am

Weather_boi wrote:
ricmood wrote:Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.

#739 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:08 am

JTE50 wrote:
Weather_boi wrote:
ricmood wrote:Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.

It means Sub Tropical Ridge

#740 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:10 am

JTE50 wrote:
Weather_boi wrote:
ricmood wrote:Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.

SubTropical Ridge, Jim. The JTWC almost always uses it to refer to the subtropical high pressure ridge between the tropical easterlies and the mid-latitude westerlies.

WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

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