ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the cold front dips down as far as it's forecasted to do LA would have less to worry about then the states further east. The big question is does it dip that far down?

I did have a question that's related to Matthew. Has Walt Disney World/Universal/Busch Gardens ever been affected by a nasty hurricane? If so how did they fare? I was just wondering with how many times you guys in Florida get hit it would be an easy assumption that it's gotten hit at least once.

Charlie affected Orlando quite bad and I remember a lot of cleanup work having to happen for Disney. It was open right away after the storm passed though. They have an army to clean things up.

Jeane & Frances crossing the state caused a lot of problems too. Busch Gardens took a lot of damage from those storms and many of the animal habitats suffered a lot of damage and had to be replanted/reworked. They put out a call for volunteers to help with the clean up efforts, as I remember. Frances seemed to cause the biggest cleanup mess from wind for us here, maybe cuz it came first. Jeane brought like 3 days of rain due to her size though. The storms hit the east coast, but caused issues for us on the west coast too as they traversed the state.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if this becomes a hurricane by the time recon gets there tomorrow morning.

[terrapintransit]

[Vortex]

HPC still placing Matt's low in the Yucatan Channel in about 7 days, this position is a little farther north and east than the previous position!

My guess is that 7day is where TPC has it on their in house track...They usually derive at this information from TPC

[hurricaneCW]

Well the good news is that if it does impact Florida, then the state should handle the storm pretty well. They are always well prepared when it comes to hurricanes, I mean they've dealt with dozens of storms in the past, and even in 2004 were they had multiple impacts, came out of it pretty well. Honestly, I think the only way a hurricane could shake down Florida is if they get a Cat 5, Andrew, style impact especially around the Tampa or Miami area.

[FLpanhandle91]

Once the northern part of the center gets a little more convection, RI will occur... Nice convection on the south side of the center blowing up now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That image captures just how large this system already is, and it is just getting started. Strengthening systems usually get much bigger. This could be a huge beast! If it moves slow and is huge, Belize and the surrounding areas will be swamped with all the water that this thing will dump on them for the days that it takes to move the system along! Reminds me of a Jeane-sized system.

Which was the largest system to impact the states? Flloyd?

[cycloneye]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if this becomes a hurricane by the time recon gets there tomorrow morning.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VHG1 ... 010266.jpg

In the image,you can also pick up the cold front in NE Texas.

[Vortex]

This will also be a large storm....the envelope is expanding this evening quite abit...overnight its likely we will get a very deep burst of convection firing right over the center...I think Hurricane by Friday....

[FLpanhandle91]

[Vortex]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if this becomes a hurricane by the time recon gets there tomorrow morning.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VHG1 ... 010266.jpg

In the image,you can also pick up the cold front in NE Texas.

The size reminds me of ALLEN in 1980

[Sanibel]

The convection looks like Matthew is pressed down by the ridge and is going to catch a good chunk of Honduras but if you eye the lower clouds it could be lifting right along the trop points on NHC's track. A clip of the corner of Honduras and hit on Belize as a hurricane.

I've looked at the Belize board and they are aware. NEMO is telling locals to pay attention to TV and radio broadcasts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Perhaps the large size of this storm is why they don't expect RI during the next 24 hours....

[StormClouds63]

This system looks like it's developing and quickly ... very impressive, IMO.

One disturbing feature for the eastern GOM is that it appears that it will be a very large system in terms of area. Look how much area of the Caribbean the system covers. Once in the GOM, could affect everyone from extreme SE LA eastward to the Keys.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

big storms like that don't have to get very strong to still push copious amounts of storm surge. ala Katrina

[terrapintransit]

The size reminds me of ALLEN in 1980[/quote]


Or perhaps Carla..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Is the interaction from Matthew supposed to stall the cold front? I've heard that the fronts going to be stalling.

[plasticup]

General rule is if you are in the bullseye many days out you are probably safe (but not always)

When Bermuda first entered Earl's 5-day cone the button was within 10 miles of where it actually passed. NHC track errors aren't what they used to be. I think this image says it all:



That said, this is the storm that will hurt their seasonal accuracy numbers. Weak steering currents obviously make for a tricky path.

[jlauderdal]

Well the good news is that if it does impact Florida, then the state should handle the storm pretty well. They are always well prepared when it comes to hurricanes, I mean they've dealt with dozens of storms in the past, and even in 2004 were they had multiple impacts, came out of it pretty well. Honestly, I think the only way a hurricane could shake down Florida is if they get a Cat 5, Andrew, style impact especially around the Tampa or Miami area.

wilma cat 1 was a major problem for south florida and it wasnt handled well, things have changed hopefully but we haven't been hit since then, when you have a power outages in a major metro area you have big problems no matter how many people prepare