Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Bhuggs]

As an insurance adjuster who has worked a lot of mobile home claims, if there was a major close to me and I was expecting 60-70 sustained winds plus gusts up to 90, I'd consider grabbing a hotel room for the day/night. I'm not sure what the wind field would be, just throwing in my 2 cents about the destruction I have seen from strong Midwest thunderstorms to mobile homes.

[robbielyn]

As an insurance adjuster who has worked a lot of mobile home claims, if there was a major close to me and I was expecting 60-70 sustained winds plus gusts up to 90, I'd consider grabbing a hotel room for the day/night. I'm not sure what the wind field would be, just throwing in my 2 cents about the destruction I have seen from strong Midwest thunderstorms to mobile homes.

thank you for replying that sounds like a good suggestion. If anyone else knows what the windfield would be in my area, I welcome comments.

[Steve]

It's always hard to predict that Robbielyn. But you'd think a landfalling Panhandle system would often still bring tropical storm force winds and possibly some hurricane force gusts in the Gulf and near the Coast. It really depends on the relative size of a storm and it's wind field pattern.

Most mobile homes are set to certain specifications of wind tolerance based on how they are set up and tied or strapped down. Florida may also have certain wind requirements. I'd search around on the Internet for details. I'd also probably take some photos and go talk with a dealer about my own situation if I owned the mobile home or my landlord if I was renting.

In any event, sustained 40+ probably puts a lot of mobile homes at risk for at least some damage if not outright toppling. I found the HUD guidance. http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/lib/ ... =203&cat=..

[abajan]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Good question. I thought that would've happened yesterday but now I'm not sure it'll even happen today.
To my untrained eye, it just doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get its act together.

On second thought, now that I've seen the latest Meteosat IR image below, it's getting its act together!

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS Simulated IR Satellite 240hrs. out.

[GeneratorPower]

As an insurance adjuster who has worked a lot of mobile home claims, if there was a major close to me and I was expecting 60-70 sustained winds plus gusts up to 90, I'd consider grabbing a hotel room for the day/night. I'm not sure what the wind field would be, just throwing in my 2 cents about the destruction I have seen from strong Midwest thunderstorms to mobile homes.

I think this idea of "just grab a hotel for a night" is one of the biggest errors people make. My job takes me into hurricane landfall areas and I can assure you hotels are usually sold out. People often don't think through their emergency "plans". Another example is people who plan to evacuate "if it's a big storm". At least in Florida, the roads get jammed instantly as soon as the public realizes "a big one" is coming.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/779658851868110848

[KWT]

The fact that they are readying recon for a few days time tells you what you need to know about the possibility of this system forming a little further east than some models are suggesting at the moment. I think 97L is coming round sooner rather than later.

[Alyono]

So what are you all thinking as far as when this becomes 97l?

Good question. I thought that would've happened yesterday but now I'm not sure it'll even happen today.
To my untrained eye, it just doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get its act together.

On second thought, now that I've seen the latest Meteosat IR image below, it's getting its act together!

http://i.imgur.com/3hLlPvn.png

its back near 26W

[wxman57]

Quick question while things are quiet..do we have any members on here with first-hand knowledge of the hurricane center...I'm wondering do they have tools that nobody else but them have access to. Things that if we had seeing surface circulations and the such would be easy?

Professionals do have tools that aren't available to those who only have the internet. These tools allow us to center a high-res satellite anywhere in the world and plot all surface obs around a disturbance. Observations from wind satellites can also be plotted.

[ScottNAtlanta]

As an insurance adjuster who has worked a lot of mobile home claims, if there was a major close to me and I was expecting 60-70 sustained winds plus gusts up to 90, I'd consider grabbing a hotel room for the day/night. I'm not sure what the wind field would be, just throwing in my 2 cents about the destruction I have seen from strong Midwest thunderstorms to mobile homes.

thank you for replying that sounds like a good suggestion. If anyone else knows what the windfield would be in my area, I welcome comments.

I think as far as evacuation, ALWAYS follow the instructions of the local government officials. If they tell you to evacuate...then be ready to go. The most important thing above all else is to have a plan ready to execute when/if the time comes.

[northjaxpro]

Folks, we likely are going to have to really, really pay attention to this system in the coming days. We have lots of time to watch this system, but as we have seen the models, they are really jumping all over this to become a potential very strong tropical cyclone moving into the Caribbean and if steering verifies in long range, into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Kazmit]

The fact that they are readying recon for a few days time tells you what you need to know about the possibility of this system forming a little further east than some models are suggesting at the moment. I think 97L is coming round sooner rather than later.

Yeah, and the NHC says that this could become a depression while approaching the Lesser Antilles, so before it even enters the Caribbean.

[robbielyn]

Quick question while things are quiet..do we have any members on here with first-hand knowledge of the hurricane center...I'm wondering do they have tools that nobody else but them have access to. Things that if we had seeing surface circulations and the such would be easy?

Professionals do have tools that aren't available to those who only have the internet. These tools allow us to center a high-res satellite anywhere in the world and plot all surface obs around a disturbance. Observations from wind satellites can also be plotted.

Oops sorry your talking about cyclogenesis not track and intensity my bad

[MGC]

Conditions look pretty good across the MDR currently. The disturbance is embedded in a fairly moist environment so dry air does not look to be a impediment. I see no reason why this won't become a tropical cyclone before entering the Caribbean Sea. Like the models are forecasting, this could be the big one of the season.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Very moist environment surrounds Pouch 39L.

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/779658851868110848

Hey look, they all miss florida I can deal with that! let's hope it does the same now.

[northjaxpro]

Conditions look pretty good across the MDR currently. The disturbance is embedded in a fairly moist environment so dry air does not look to be a impediment. I see no reason why this won't become a tropical cyclone before entering the Caribbean Sea. Like the models are forecasting, this could be the big one of the season.....MGC

I completely agree with you MGC. Really, for the first time this season, conditions look very ripe for the development of a potential strong tropical cyclone coming from the MDR. We have a low rider, which is in a low shear environment and moisture-laden environment to boot. Potentially, this may be a very strong cyclone in a few days. We really have to watch this very carefully in the days to come.

[SFLcane]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensembles are mainly north of the operational. (Red line)