ATL: MARIA - Models

[SFLcane]

Um well this GFS run isn't encouraging...

[RL3AO]

If I was going to bet, I'd say this isn't the last of the westward shifts. Those along the east coast need to keep watching.

[gatorcane]

Looks like at least a 200-300 miles shift SW:

[chris_fit]

This run REALLY slows down Maria just E of the Bahamas.

[Alyono]

HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 59.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2017 0 14.5N 59.8W 988 58
0000UTC 19.09.2017 12 15.0N 61.2W 983 63
1200UTC 19.09.2017 24 15.9N 62.5W 978 62
0000UTC 20.09.2017 36 16.9N 63.8W 972 66
1200UTC 20.09.2017 48 18.0N 65.4W 965 70
0000UTC 21.09.2017 60 19.0N 66.8W 961 75
1200UTC 21.09.2017 72 19.8N 68.5W 957 76
0000UTC 22.09.2017 84 20.6N 70.0W 952 87
1200UTC 22.09.2017 96 21.8N 70.7W 947 83
0000UTC 23.09.2017 108 23.4N 71.3W 943 81
1200UTC 23.09.2017 120 25.0N 71.9W 940 78
0000UTC 24.09.2017 132 26.7N 71.6W 932 83
1200UTC 24.09.2017 144 28.5N 71.0W 934 81

the reason for this east forecast

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 71.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2017 0 33.6N 71.1W 974 57
0000UTC 19.09.2017 12 35.0N 71.7W 967 59
1200UTC 19.09.2017 24 36.1N 71.7W 968 57
0000UTC 20.09.2017 36 37.7N 70.8W 966 63
1200UTC 20.09.2017 48 39.3N 69.6W 968 51
0000UTC 21.09.2017 60 40.2N 68.4W 976 46
1200UTC 21.09.2017 72 40.0N 67.5W 984 43
0000UTC 22.09.2017 84 39.7N 67.1W 989 39
1200UTC 22.09.2017 96 39.7N 67.1W 990 40
0000UTC 23.09.2017 108 39.0N 67.1W 990 40
1200UTC 23.09.2017 120 38.2N 67.5W 992 35
0000UTC 24.09.2017 132 37.5N 68.2W 993 40
1200UTC 24.09.2017 144 37.2N 70.3W 994 43

[tarheelprogrammer]

This run of the GFS is going to be a close call for the US. Yikes

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 500MB flow, I can't see how this won't hit the SE US this run.

[RL3AO]

Looking at the 500MB flow, I can't see how this won't hit the SE US this run.

It still might escape. The height gradient is very weak. Not a whole lot to push it west. However, I don't think this is the last of the westward shifts. Jose causing a lot of issues.

[gatorcane]

BIG east shift by CMC:

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 180 hrs shifted @80 miles SW... Crazy setup with Jose and Cat 4 lingering a few hundred miles offshore CONUS, no way there can be any certainty...

[PandaCitrus]

Historically, this is a dangerous track for a hurricane. Look at the track of the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane. It's eerily similar. Right through Puerto Rico as a Cat 5, then skirting DR, through the bahamas...

In 1928, it hit West Palm as strong borderline Cat 4/5 killing thousands when Lake Okeechobee breached it's banks.

[sma10]

CMC again painting a very entertaining solution with Bermuda trapped between two enormous, stalled cyclones at hr 222

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Could be NC-bound this run of the GFS. Pretty big blocking ridge over the NE US.

[Raebie]

Look out Outer Banks.

[LarryWx]

It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the US east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.

[sma10]

I don't know much at this point (nor does anyone else) but I have a sneaking suspicion that Maria will not turn out to be the garden variety recurve cyclone that the UK/Euro/GFS has been hinting at the past few cycles

[chris_fit]

CMS Stalls Maria and Jose(or something else?) - for 4+ days - Off the SE US Coast.

Starting to see a few different models slow/stall in this area recently.

[gatorcane]

turning NW into North Carolina:

[tgenius]

That big shift is just one for the time being, but with Jose influencing the models I'm not quite sure what to believe beyond 2-3 days at this point. Even though GFS is known to be right biased, the 00z and 12z runs are typically more "stable" then the 06z/18z runs have been (at least as far as I remember with Irma)