Texas Spring 2019

[CaptinCrunch]

The graphic in this tweet does not match the actual SPC outlook? Confusing. It puts things well west of the official outlook.

So basically it's a line east of a (Stephenville up to Mineral Wells to Henrietta) which puts the DFW area on the western side of the threat zone. As always what storms form out around this line can bring some damage, however I'm thinking the worst of the severe weather will be east of Dallas.

Actually, areas to the West and in D/FW will be under the gun for a significant sever weather event including tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117820640948621312

DFW metro is in the Enhanced Threat area, but it's in the western edge of that box. That's not ruling out the severe threat for DFW, but the main area will be Dallas and points east. It really depends on where the dry line set's up, and the timing once the storms start forming. Wednesday is going to be active and a good chase day.

[cheezyWXguy]

The graphic in this tweet does not match the actual SPC outlook? Confusing. It puts things well west of the official outlook.

Actually, areas to the West and in D/FW will be under the gun for a significant sever weather event including tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117820640948621312

DFW metro is in the Enhanced Threat area, but it's in the western edge of that box. That's not ruling out the severe threat for DFW, but the main area will be Dallas and points east. It really depends on where the dry line set's up, and the timing once the storms start forming. Wednesday is going to be active and a good chase day.

Dfw being on the western edge of the highest probabilities probably increases the chances for significant severe weather though probably decreases the chances for experiencing a quantity of severe storms. The further west dfw is in the zone of highest chances, the more likely they are to experience storms prior to upscale growth.

[fendie]

The graphic in this tweet does not match the actual SPC outlook? Confusing. It puts things well west of the official outlook.

So basically it's a line east of a (Stephenville up to Mineral Wells to Henrietta) which puts the DFW area on the western side of the threat zone. As always what storms form out around this line can bring some damage, however I'm thinking the worst of the severe weather will be east of Dallas.

Actually, areas to the West and in D/FW will be under the gun for a significant sever weather event including tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117820640948621312

Looks the same to me.

[Ntxw]

The graphic in this tweet does not match the actual SPC outlook? Confusing. It puts things well west of the official outlook.

DFW metro is in the Enhanced Threat area, but it's in the western edge of that box. That's not ruling out the severe threat for DFW, but the main area will be Dallas and points east. It really depends on where the dry line set's up, and the timing once the storms start forming. Wednesday is going to be active and a good chase day.

Dfw being on the western edge of the highest probabilities probably increases the chances for significant severe weather though probably decreases the chances for experiencing a quantity of severe storms. The further west dfw is in the zone of highest chances, the more likely they are to experience storms prior to upscale growth.

It will depend on storm mode and timing. If it quickly lines up as some guidance are showing then it will be an MCS with the greatest threat being wind and rain. If more discrete cells fire ahead of the dryline then those would be a more significant threat. I'm leaning towards a quickly forming MCS.

[Haris]

Looks to remain active from here on out. Buckle up.

[cheezyWXguy]

DFW metro is in the Enhanced Threat area, but it's in the western edge of that box. That's not ruling out the severe threat for DFW, but the main area will be Dallas and points east. It really depends on where the dry line set's up, and the timing once the storms start forming. Wednesday is going to be active and a good chase day.

Dfw being on the western edge of the highest probabilities probably increases the chances for significant severe weather though probably decreases the chances for experiencing a quantity of severe storms. The further west dfw is in the zone of highest chances, the more likely they are to experience storms prior to upscale growth.

It will depend on storm mode and timing. If it quickly lines up as some guidance are showing then it will be an MCS with the greatest threat being wind and rain. If more discrete cells fire ahead of the dryline then those would be a more significant threat. I'm leaning towards a quickly forming MCS.

I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right, but I’m hesitant to buy in just yet. The nam tends to over-convect, which may bias it toward mcs development too early

[Cpv17]

Once again the NE quadrant is where you wanna be. Getting sick of this.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Looks like the threat boxes are moving about 50 miles west, which puts DFW proper more into the thick of things, yes?

What's the timing looking like? I can play garage musical chairs with parking garages and such.

[rwfromkansas]

I was referring to I guess the hatched area. Didn’t realize that’s what that was in the link.

[Haris]

Once again the NE quadrant is where you wanna be. Getting sick of this.

[urlhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1555365573[/url]

Just temporary bad luck for you.
Most of the state is doing well

[Cpv17]

This pleases me

[bubba hotep]

Probably one of the wettest runs of the Euro Weeklies I have ever seen for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

SPC holds steady with not much change in the overnight models. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD for huge hail. The open warm sector across DFW away from the dryline will also have a tornado risk before being overtaken by the line of storms moving in from the West. Hopefully, storm interactions and rapid upscale growth keeps the huge hail out of DFW proper.

[cheezyWXguy]

SPC holds steady with not much change in the overnight models. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD for huge hail. The open warm sector across DFW away from the dryline will also have a tornado risk before being overtaken by the line of storms moving in from the West. Hopefully, storm interactions and rapid upscale growth keeps the huge hail out of DFW proper.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

One thing that’s a little concerning is that there are likely to be random surface boundaries in the open warm sector, that even the CAMs may not yet be able to resolve. This could have an impact on developing more storms ahead of the dryline than models currently show, and/or locally enhancing tornado potential

[bubba hotep]

SPC holds steady with not much change in the overnight models. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MOD for huge hail. The open warm sector across DFW away from the dryline will also have a tornado risk before being overtaken by the line of storms moving in from the West. Hopefully, storm interactions and rapid upscale growth keeps the huge hail out of DFW proper.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

One thing that’s a little concerning is that there are likely to be random surface boundaries in the open warm sector, that even the CAMs may not yet be able to resolve. This could have an impact on developing more storms ahead of the dryline than models currently show, and/or locally enhancing tornado potential

Both the TX Tech WRF-ENKF and SPC HREF ensembles are highlighting the risk of supercells firing along I35 well ahead of the dryline convection. Moisture return and any localized boundaries will play a role in any conditional tornado threat for DFW tomorrow afternoon.

[WacoWx]

What is the timing between the two separate events if you had to guess? How much time is needed after the discreet cells form along I-35 would we need for the atmosphere to re-energize before the dry line arrives, or is this not one of those particular situations where more energy is needed.

[bubba hotep]

What is the timing between the two separate events if you had to guess? How much time is needed after the discreet cells form along I-35 would we need for the atmosphere to re-energize before the dry line arrives, or is this not one of those particular situations where more energy is needed.

There'll be a cap in place tomorrow morning and any convection along I35 will be dependent on when the cap breaks. That is always a bit of a wild guess as to when the cap breaks. The model consensus points towards only a few random cells firing early and that shouldn't disrupt things too much. There will be plenty of energy for cells coming off the dryline, esp since they'll fire farther west. So theoretically, so portions of DFW could see multiple rounds of svr wx tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

[Haris]

Euro and eps 12z have 1.5” - 2” of rain

[fendie]

Over 3000 J/kg Most Unstable CAPE forecast throughout most of the SPC’s Ehnanced Risk area tomorrow. Looking likely that someone in North Central and possibly Central Texas sees some large hail tomorrrow evening. Further east looks to be more of a wind threat. Will be interesting to watch the first storms that fire in the warm sector tomorrow late afternoon/early evening.